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Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Nikolay Hristov & Markus Roth, 2019. "Uncertainty Shocks and Financial Crisis Indicators," CESifo Working Paper Series 7839, CESifo.
  2. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect Information in Macroeconomics," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 181-196.
  3. Concepción de la Fuente-Cabrero & Mónica de Castro-Pardo & Rosa Santero-Sánchez & Pilar Laguna-Sánchez, 2019. "The Role of Mutual Guarantee Institutions in the Financial Sustainability of New Family-Owned Small Businesses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.
  4. Luca Dedola & Georgios Georgiadis & Johannes Gräb & Arnaud Mehl, 2018. "Does a Big Bazooka Matter? Central Bank Balance-Sheet Policies and Exchange Rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  5. Prati, Alberto & Saucet, Charlotte, 2024. "The causal effect of a health treatment on beliefs, stated preferences and memories," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7rrg4irjh79549mkjh27en0pos is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Bürgi, Constantin & Ortiz, Julio L., 2026. "Overreaction through anchoring," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 512-526.
  8. Sergio A. Correia & Stephan Luck & Emil Verner, 2024. "Failing Banks," Staff Reports 1117, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Caner, Mehmet & Fan, Qingliang & Grennes, Thomas, 2021. "Partners in debt: An endogenous non-linear analysis of the effects of public and private debt on growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 694-711.
  10. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
  11. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Roberto Casarin & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Fiscal Policy Regimes in Resource-Rich Economies," Working Papers No 13/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  12. Kubin, Ingrid & Zörner, Thomas O. & Gardini, Laura & Commendatore, Pasquale, 2019. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 159-174.
  13. Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov & Luca Antonio Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2023. "What drives economic growth forecast revisions?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1068-1092, August.
  14. Emanuele Campiglio & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2022. "Macrofinancial Risks of the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(2), pages 173-195.
  15. Kolasa, Marcin & Ravgotra, Sahil & Zabczyk, Pawel, 2025. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in a behavioral open economy model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  16. Machado, Caio, 2023. "Managing Overreaction During a Run," MPRA Paper 117896, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2023.
  17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
  18. Cassella, Stefano & Chen, Te-Feng & Gulen, Huseyin & Liu, Yan, 2025. "Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices: An augmented present-value approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  19. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "Indebted Demand," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(4), pages 2243-2307.
  20. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2020. "How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 949-994, April.
  21. J Anthony Cookson & Joseph E Engelberg & William Mullins & Hui Chen, 0. "Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 863-893.
  22. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1157-1188, September.
  23. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. ÅžimÅŸek, Alp, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15733, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. De Santis, Roberto A., 2016. "Credit spreads, economic activity and fragmentation," Working Paper Series 1930, European Central Bank.
  26. Bielskis, Karolis & Lastauskas, Povilas, 2024. "The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
  27. Saktinil Roy, 2023. "Do Changes in Risk Perception Predict Systemic Banking Crises?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-15, October.
  28. Marta Cota, 2023. "Extrapolative Income Expectations and Retirement Savings," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp751, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  29. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & Christos A. Makridis, 2024. "Split personalities? Behavioral effects of temperature on financial decision‐making," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 664-689, August.
  30. Greg Howard & Carl Liebersohn, 2019. "What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence," 2019 Meeting Papers 1054, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  31. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  32. Filip Rozsypal & Kathrin Schlafmann, 2023. "Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 331-371, October.
  33. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  34. Mueller, Holger & Giroud, Xavier, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  35. Josh Davis & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7350-7361, October.
  36. Miao Liu, 2022. "Assessing Human Information Processing in Lending Decisions: A Machine Learning Approach," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(2), pages 607-651, May.
  37. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial cycles under diagnostic beliefs," Working Paper Series 2659, European Central Bank.
  38. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
  39. Parija, Arpit Kumar, 2025. "Does credit growth predict lower returns for large banks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  40. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
  41. Harold H. Zhang & Feng Zhao & Xiaofei Zhao, 2024. "Neglected Risks in the Communication of Residential Mortgage‐Backed Securities Offerings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 129-172, February.
  42. Victor Olkhov, 2018. "Econophysics Beyond General Equilibrium: the Business Cycle Model," Papers 1804.04721, arXiv.org.
  43. Almut Balleer & Georg Duernecker & Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch, 2026. "The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 297-335, January.
  44. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  45. Andrew Caplin & John V. Leahy, 2019. "Wishful Thinking," NBER Working Papers 25707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
  47. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  48. Masciandaro, Donato & Russo, Riccardo, 2024. "Monetary and macroprudential policies: How to Be green? A political-economy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  49. Jin, Lawrence J. & Sui, Pengfei, 2022. "Asset pricing with return extrapolation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 273-295.
  50. Günsür, Başak Tanyeri & Bulut, Emre, 2022. "Investor reactions to major events in the sub-prime mortgage crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  51. Kohlhas, Alexandre N. & Robertson, Donald, 2025. "Cautious expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).
  52. Farboodi, Maryam & Kondor, Péter, 2023. "Cleansing by tight credit: Rational cycles and endogenous lending standards," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 46-67.
  53. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  54. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  55. David Aikman & Jonathan Bridges & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke & Cian O’Neill & Akash Raja, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England.
  56. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
  57. John Geanakoplos, 2022. "Leverage Cycle Theory of Economic Crises and Booms," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2370, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  58. Carlo A. Favero & Alessandro Melone, 2019. "Asset Pricing vs Asset Expected Returning in Factor Models," Working Papers 651, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  59. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  60. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  61. Jeremy C. Stein, 2021. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 5-22, March.
  62. Li, Rui & Li, Jianping & Zhu, Xiaoqian, 2025. "Downside belief disagreements and financial instability: Evidence from risk factor disclosures in U.S. financial institutions’ 10-K filings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  63. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Lawrence J. Jin, 2019. "Reflexivity in Credit Markets," NBER Working Papers 25747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Niemann, Stefan & Prein, Timm, 2024. "Sovereign Risk under Diagnostic Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  65. Dew-Becker, Ian & Nathanson, Charles G., 2019. "Directed attention and nonparametric learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 461-496.
  66. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
  67. José Pedro Bastos Neves & Willi Semmler, 2022. "Credit, output and financial stress: A non‐linear LVSTAR application to Brazil," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 900-923, July.
  68. Pablo Pastory y Camarasa & Martien Lamers, 2023. "Do Actions Follow Words? How bank sentiment predicts credit growth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1073, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  69. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
  70. Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre, 2018. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 12898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Braggion, Fabio & Frehen, Rik & Jerphanion, Emiel, 2020. "Credit Provision and Stock Trading: Evidence from the South Sea Bubble," CEPR Discussion Papers 14532, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  72. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial stability and macroprudential regulation under diagnostic expectations," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 101.
  73. Fedor Minichev, 2026. "The potential of using textual data to estimate inflation expectations in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 81, pages 26-45.
  74. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Wenhao Li, 2025. "Dissecting Mechanisms of Financial Crises: Intermediation and Sentiment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(3), pages 935-985.
  75. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
  76. Mauersberger, Felix & Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph, 2020. "Bounded rationality in Keynesian beauty contests: A lesson for central bankers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 14, pages 1-38.
  77. Keqi Chen, 2020. "A Closer Look at Analyst Expectations: Stickiness and Confirmation Bias," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15.
  78. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-driven Business Cycles," Working Papers 161, Peruvian Economic Association.
  79. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 26290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  80. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Galiński, Paweł R. & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2025. "Monetary and fiscal policy in a two-country model with behavioral expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
  81. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzík, 2025. "Borrower‐based macroprudential measures and credit growth: How biased is the existing literature?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 66-102, February.
  82. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  83. Galanis, Giorgos & Kollias, Iraklis & Leventides, Ioanis & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2025. "Generalizing heuristic switching models and a (boundedly) rational route away from randomness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
  84. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2026. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 162-178, January.
  85. Michael Bauer & Mikhail Chernov, 2024. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 173-217, February.
  86. Comerford, David A. & Soll, Jack B., 2025. "Partisan bias, attribute substitution, and the benefits of an indirect format for eliciting forecasts and judgments of trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 702-715.
  87. Massenot, Baptiste, 2020. "Credit cycles: Experimental evidence," SAFE Working Paper Series 104 [rev.], Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2020.
  88. Paul, Pascal, 2020. "A macroeconomic model with occasional financial crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  89. Pedro Bordalo & Katherine Coffman & Nicola Gennaioli & Frederik Schwerter & Andrei Shleifer, 2019. "Memory and Representativeness," NBER Working Papers 25692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  90. Jochen Guentner & Elena Afanasyeva, 2017. "Noise-Ridden Lending Cycles," 2017 Meeting Papers 1211, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  91. Galanis, Giorgos & Kollias, Iraklis & Leventidis, Ioanis & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2022. "Generalizing Heterogeneous Dynamic Heuristic Selection," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 73, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
  92. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
  93. Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  94. Braun, Matías & Marcet, Francisco & Raddatz, Claudio, 2024. "The good, the bad, and the not-so-ugly of credit booms?: capital allocation and financial constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  95. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
  96. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Pierlauro Lopez & Sanjay R. Singh, 2025. "A Behavioral Foundation for the Investment Wedge," Working Paper Series 2025-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  97. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
  98. Khwazi Magubane, 2025. "The Stability of the Financial Cycle: Insights from a Markov Switching Regression in South Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-30, February.
  99. Roy, Saktinil, 2022. "What drives the systemic banking crises in advanced economies?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  100. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.
  101. Parija, Arpit Kumar & Chhatwani, Malvika, 2024. "How does bank opacity affect credit growth and return predictability?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  102. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Zhongxi Zheng, 2025. "Endogenous Persistence at the Effective Lower Bound," Papers 2501.06473, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
  103. Xavier Gabaix, 2017. "Behavioral Inattention," NBER Working Papers 24096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  104. Maryam Farboodi & Péter Kondor, 2020. "Rational Sentiments and Economic Cycles," NBER Working Papers 27472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  105. Tortorice, Daniel L, 2018. "The business cycle implications of fluctuating long run expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 266-291.
  106. Da, Zhi & Huang, Xing & Jin, Lawrence J., 2021. "Extrapolative beliefs in the cross-section: What can we learn from the crowds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 175-196.
  107. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Working Papers 0686, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  108. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
  109. Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro & Zamarripa, Rene, 2021. "Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions: A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons," CEPR Discussion Papers 16153, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  110. Campiglio, Emanuele & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Macro-Financial Transition Risks in the Fight Against Global Warming," RFF Working Paper Series 21-15, Resources for the Future.
  111. Genaro Mart'in Damiani, 2024. "An essay on the history of DSGE models," Papers 2409.00812, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
  112. Jeffrey Schafer, 2022. "Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03," Working Papers 57398, Congressional Budget Office.
  113. Kirti, Divya, 2025. "Lending standards and output growth," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  114. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 24529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  115. Atif Mian, 2016. "Comment on "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31, pages 274-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  116. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 25325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  117. Pacicco, Fausto & Serati, Massimiliano & Venegoni, Andrea, 2022. "The Euro Area credit crunch conundrum: Was it demand or supply driven?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  118. Chenyu Hou & Tao Wang, 2025. "Uncovering Subjective Models from Survey Expectations," Staff Working Papers 25-31, Bank of Canada.
  119. repec:osf:socarx:rwhse_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  120. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  121. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
  122. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
  123. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  124. Arigoni, Filippo & McCann, Fergal & Yao, Fang, 2022. "Mortgage credit and house prices: evidence to inform macroprudential policy," Financial Stability Notes 11/FS/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
  125. Na, Seunghoon & Xie, Yinxi, 2025. "Expectations and the UIP puzzles when foresight is limited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  126. Rey, Hélène & Galaasen, Sigurd & Jamilov, Rustam & Juelsrud, Ragnar, 2020. "Granular Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 15385, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  127. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M., 2021. "Firm leverage and employment dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1381-1394.
  128. Caines, Colin & Winkler, Fabian, 2021. "Asset price beliefs and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-67.
  129. Bizzarri, Matteo & d’Arienzo, Daniele, 2024. "The social value of overreaction to information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  130. Eugene Larsen-Hallock & Adam Rej & David Thesmar, 2022. "Expectations Formation with Fat-tailed Processes: Evidence from Sales Forecasts," Papers 2210.10169, arXiv.org.
  131. José Daniel Aromí, 2021. "Large Current Account Deficits and Neglected Vulnerabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 597-623, December.
  132. Jean Paul Rabanal & Aleksei Chernulich & John Horowitz & Olga A. Rud & Manizha Sharifova, 2019. "Market timing under public and private information," Working Papers 151, Peruvian Economic Association.
  133. Artur Doshchyn, 2022. "Productivity Booms, Bank Fragility, and Financial Crises," Economics Series Working Papers 1027, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  134. David López-Salido & Jeremy C. Stein & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1373-1426.
  135. Bazzana, Davide & Colturato, Michele & Savona, Roberto, 2023. "Learning about unprecedented events: Agent-based modelling and the stock market impact of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  136. Cassella, Stefano & Chen, Te-Feng & Gulen, Huseyin & Liu, Yan, 2025. "Extracting extrapolative beliefs from market prices : An augmented present-value approac," Other publications TiSEM a19ca154-f344-4cd5-b2e5-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  137. Crawford, Vincent P. & Jin, Miao & Meng, Juanjuan & Yao, Lan, 2025. "Expectations-based reference-dependence and labor supply: Eliciting cabdrivers’ expectations in the field," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
  138. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2023. "Determinacy without the Taylor Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(8), pages 2125-2164.
  139. Comerford, David A., 2025. "Cognitive reflection, arithmetic ability and financial literacy independently predict both inflation expectations and forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 517-531.
  140. Jonathan Adams & Philip Barrett, 2024. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
  141. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
  142. Mark Egan & Alexander MacKay & Hanbin Yang, 2022. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(5), pages 2559-2599.
  143. Gopalakrishna, Goutham & Lee, Seung Joo & Papamichalis, Theofanis, 2025. "Beliefs and the net worth trap," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  144. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
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