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Betting on momentum in contests

Author

Listed:
  • Marius Ötting
  • Christian Deutscher
  • Carl Singleton
  • Luca De Angelis

Abstract

With unprecedented access to volumes and prices of state‐contingent claims by a major bookmaker, second‐by‐second in‐play football betting markets, we study what happens after major breaking news. We focus on what might look like a shift in momentum to a bettor: equalizing goals. Immediately after this news breaks, the volume of claims sold on the match outcomes increases and is substantially biased toward the equalizing team. But there is no evidence that the prices or values of these claims are functions of whichever team scored last. These findings illustrate the value of integrating high‐frequency price and quantity data to evaluate the efficiency and profitability of betting markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2025. "Betting on momentum in contests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(4), pages 1066-1089, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:63:y:2025:i:4:p:1066-1089
    DOI: 10.1111/ecin.70008
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