IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bno/worpap/2020_15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Granular credit risk

Author

Listed:
  • Sigurd Galaasen
  • Rustam Jamilov
  • Hélène Rey
  • Ragnar Juelsrud

Abstract

What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the ?rst causal identi?cation of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an administrative matched bank-?rm dataset from Norway. Exploiting the fat tail properties of the loan share distribution we use a Gabaix and Koijen (2020a,b) granular instrumental variable strategy to show that idiosyncratic borrower risk survives aggregation in banks portfolios. We also ?nd that this granular credit risk spills over from affected banks to ?rms, decreases investment, and increases the probability of default of non-granular borrowers, thereby sizably affecting the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Hélène Rey & Ragnar Juelsrud, 2020. "Granular credit risk," Working Paper 2020/15, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2020_15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690132
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    3. Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "Do Peer Firms Affect Corporate Financial Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 139-178, February.
    4. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-1087, September.
    6. Franziska Bremus & Claudia M. Buch & Katheryn N. Russ & Monika Schnitzer, 2018. "Big Banks and Macroeconomic Outcomes: Theory and Cross‐Country Evidence of Granularity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1785-1825, December.
    7. Huremovic, Kenan & Jiménez, Gabriel & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," EconStor Preprints 222281, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    9. Juelsrud, Ragnar E. & Wold, Ella Getz, 2020. "Risk-weighted capital requirements and portfolio rebalancing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    10. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    11. Singh, S K & Maddala, G S, 1976. "A Function for Size Distribution of Incomes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 963-970, September.
    12. Cecile Gaubert & Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "Granular Comparative Advantage," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(3), pages 871-939.
    13. Nuno Coimbra & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," NBER Working Papers 23245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Raj Chetty & Adam Looney & Kory Kroft, 2009. "Salience and Taxation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1145-1177, September.
    15. Caterina Mendicino & Kalin Nikolov & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Javier Suarez & Dominik Supera, 2020. "Twin Default Crises," Working Papers wp2020_2006, CEMFI.
    16. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    17. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Diagnostic Expectations and Credit Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 199-227, February.
    18. Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Insurance within the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1054-1087, October.
    19. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    22. Sumit Agarwal & Ricardo Correa & Bernardo Morais & Jessica Roldán & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2020. "Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem: Credit Concentration in Bad Times," International Finance Discussion Papers 1288, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Lucia S. Foster & Cheryl A. Grim & John Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2017. "Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights," NBER Working Papers 23666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    25. Ivashina, Victoria, 2009. "Asymmetric information effects on loan spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 300-319, May.
    26. G. Jacob Blackwood & Lucia S. Foster & Cheryl A. Grim & John Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2021. "Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 142-172, July.
    27. Gabaix, Xavier & Koijen, Ralph, 2021. "In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 16290, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    28. Goetz, Martin R. & Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2016. "Does the geographic expansion of banks reduce risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 346-362.
    29. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    30. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2019. "International Shocks, Variable Markups, and Domestic Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(6), pages 2356-2402.
    31. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    32. Andreas Fagereng & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Portfolio Choices, Firm Shocks, and Uninsurable Wage Risk," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 437-474.
    33. Andreas Fuster & David Laibson & Brock Mendel, 2010. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 67-84, Fall.
    34. Daniel L. Greenwald & John Krainer & Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Credit Line Channel," Working Paper Series 2020-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Choi, Nicole & Fedenia, Mark & Skiba, Hilla & Sokolyk, Tatyana, 2017. "Portfolio concentration and performance of institutional investors worldwide," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 189-208.
    36. Elliott, M. & Georg, C-P. & Hazell, J., 2020. "Systemic Risk-Shifting in Financial Networks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2068, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    37. Viral V. Acharya & Iftekhar Hasan & Anthony Saunders, 2006. "Should Banks Be Diversified? Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolios," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1355-1412, May.
    38. Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "Power Laws in Economics and Finance," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 255-294, May.
    39. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    40. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    41. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    42. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, "undated". "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-09 Financial Crisis," Working Paper 90811, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2022. "Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy," Current Policy Perspectives 94265, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Juelsrud, Ragnar E., 2021. "Deposit concentration at financial intermediaries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    6. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2020-177, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2020-177, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    2. A. Burietz & L. Ureche-Rangau, 2020. "Better the devil you know: Home and sectoral biases in bank lending," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 69-85.
    3. Gaubert, Cecile & Itskhoki, Oleg & Vogler, Maximilian, 2021. "Government policies in a granular global economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 95-112.
    4. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
    5. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Mauricio Calani & Liliana Varela, 2021. "Granular Corporate Hedging Under Dominant Currency," NBER Working Papers 28910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Paravisini, Daniel & Rappoport, Veronica & Schnabl, Philipp, 2023. "Specialization in bank lending: evidence from exporting firms," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119458, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. João Amador & Arne J. Nagengast, 2015. "The Effect of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level and Aggregate Investment," Working Papers w201515, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Gabriel Chodorow‐Reich & Antonio Falato, 2022. "The Loan Covenant Channel: How Bank Health Transmits to the Real Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 85-128, February.
    11. Steven Poelhekke & Razvan Vlahu & Vadym Volosovych, 2021. "Corporate Acquisitions and Bank Relationships," Working Papers 726, DNB.
    12. Luca Fontanelli, 2023. "Theories of market selection: a survey," LEM Papers Series 2023/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    13. Jiang, Shuyi & Li, Jay Y., 2022. "He who lends knows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    14. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    16. Kilian Huber, 2021. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2023-2066.
    17. Peydró, José-Luis & Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Krusell, Per & Rudanko, Leena, 2016. "Unions in a frictional labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 35-50.
    19. Sara Calligaris & Massimo Del Gatto & Fadi Hassan & Gianmarco I P Ottaviano & Fabiano Schivardi & Tommaso MonacelliManaging Editor, 2018. "The productivity puzzle and misallocation: an Italian perspective," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 33(96), pages 635-684.
    20. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    granular credit risk; credit concentration; granular borrowers; large exposures regulation; granular instrumental variable; granular hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2020_15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbgovno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.