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Granular Credit Risk

Author

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  • Sigurd Galaasen
  • Rustam Jamilov
  • Ragnar Juelsrud
  • Hélène Rey

Abstract

What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the first causal identification of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an administrative matched bank-firm dataset from Norway. Exploiting the fat tail properties of the loan share distribution we use a Gabaix and Ko¼en (2020, 2021) granular instrumental variable strategy to show that idiosyncratic borrower risk survives aggregation in banks portfolios. We also find that this granular credit risk spills over from affected banks to firms, decreases investment, and increases the probability of default of non-granular borrowers, thereby sizably affecting the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Ragnar Juelsrud & Hélène Rey, 2020. "Granular Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 27994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27994
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    Cited by:

    1. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2022. "Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy," Current Policy Perspectives 94265, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Huremovic, Kenan & Jiménez, Gabriel & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," EconStor Preprints 222281, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 28204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Juelsrud, Ragnar E., 2021. "Deposit concentration at financial intermediaries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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