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Granular Credit Risk


  • Sigurd Galaasen
  • Rustam Jamilov
  • Ragnar Juelsrud
  • Hélène Rey


What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the first causal identification of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an administrative matched bank-firm dataset from Norway. Exploiting the fat tail properties of the loan share distribution we use a Gabaix and Ko¼en (2020, 2021) granular instrumental variable strategy to show that idiosyncratic borrower risk survives aggregation in banks portfolios. We also find that this granular credit risk spills over from affected banks to firms, decreases investment, and increases the probability of default of non-granular borrowers, thereby sizably affecting the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sigurd Galaasen & Rustam Jamilov & Ragnar Juelsrud & Hélène Rey, 2020. "Granular Credit Risk," NBER Working Papers 27994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27994
    Note: CF IFM

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    2. Daniel L. Greenwald & John Krainer & Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Credit Line Channel," Working Paper Series 2020-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Agarwal,Sumit & Correa,Ricardo & Morais,Bernardo & Roldan,Jessica & Ruiz Ortega,Claudia, 2020. "Owe a Bank Millions, the Bank Has a Problem : Credit Concentration in Bad Times," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9202, The World Bank.
    4. G. Jacob Blackwood & Lucia S. Foster & Cheryl A. Grim & John Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2021. "Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 142-172, July.
    5. Jiménez, Gabriel & Kenan, Huremovic & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Peydró, José Luis & Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Coimbra, Nuno & Rey, H�l�ne, 2017. "Financial Cycles with Heterogeneous Intermediaries," CEPR Discussion Papers 11907, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Dávila, Eduardo & Walther, Ansgar, 2020. "Does size matter? Bailouts with large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-1087, September.
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    10. Lucia S. Foster & Cheryl A. Grim & John Haltiwanger & Zoltan Wolf, 2017. "Macro and Micro Dynamics of Productivity: From Devilish Details to Insights," NBER Working Papers 23666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Ivashina, Victoria, 2009. "Asymmetric information effects on loan spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 300-319, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huremovic, Kenan & Jiménez, Gabriel & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Vega-Redondo, Fernando & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Production and financial networks in interplay: Crisis evidence from supplier-customer and credit registers," EconStor Preprints 222281, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2020. "Granular Instrumental Variables," NBER Working Papers 28204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Juelsrud, Ragnar E., 2021. "Deposit concentration at financial intermediaries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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