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Luck in the Marketplace: Auspicious Timing and Financial Decision-Making

Author

Listed:
  • Ge Gao

    (Beijing Sport University)

  • Carlo Perroni

    (University of Warwick)

  • Oleksandr Talavera

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Linh Vi

    (Aston University)

Abstract

We study the role of superstition in China's peer-to-peer lending market by examining whether lenders time their bids according to ''lucky hours'' from the Chinese farmer's calendar. Loans funded during lucky hours perform better - but only because the platform lists higher-rated loans at those times. This pattern is consistent with a screening mechanism: highly risk-averse lenders place greater value on both true risk reductions and auspicious-day signals, so the platform maximizes surplus by bundling the two-listing low-risk loans on auspicious days. Moreover, listing safer loans at lucky hours can further boost profits because biased beliefs decay more slowly under asymmetric (bad-news-heavy) learning.

Suggested Citation

  • Ge Gao & Carlo Perroni & Oleksandr Talavera & Linh Vi, 2026. "Luck in the Marketplace: Auspicious Timing and Financial Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 26-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:26-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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