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A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility

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Cited by:

  1. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Vrontos, Spyridon, 2015. "Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 103-122.
  2. Andrew Patton, 2002. "(IAM Series No 001) On the Out-Of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," FMG Discussion Papers dp431, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  4. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October.
  5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  7. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
  8. Imad Moosa & John Vaz, 2015. "Directional accuracy, forecasting error and the profitability of currency trading: model-based evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(57), pages 6191-6199, December.
  9. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 523-534, March.
  10. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
  11. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
  12. Niels S. Grønborg & Asger Lunde & Kasper V. Olesen & Harry Vander Elst, 2018. "Realizing Correlations Across Asset Classes," CREATES Research Papers 2018-37, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  13. Shintani, Mototsugu, 2005. "Nonlinear Forecasting Analysis Using Diffusion Indexes: An Application to Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 517-538, June.
  14. Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
  15. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  16. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Speculative behaviour and oil price predictability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 128-136.
  17. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  18. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan, 2008. "Multivariate regimeswitching GARCH with an application to international stock markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  19. Engel, Charles, 1994. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 151-165, February.
  20. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  21. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Yakup ARI & Alexandros PAPADOPOULOS, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation Of The Parameters Of The Arch Model With Normal Innovations Using Lindley’S Approximation," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 217-234.
  23. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
  24. Timmermann, Allan & Elliott, Graham & Komunjer, Ivana, 2003. "Estimating Loss Function Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Iwaisako, Tokuo, 2002. "Does International Diversification Really Diversify Risks?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 109-134, March.
  26. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  27. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Measuring Volatility Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 82-89, January.
  29. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 574-594.
  30. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2014. "A reappraisal of the Meese--Rogoff puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 30-40, January.
  31. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  32. Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 65290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2008. "Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Forecasts," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe22, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  34. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on the economic value of predictability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 325-348, July.
  35. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
  36. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
  37. Daglish, Toby & Maheu, John & McCurdy, Tom, 2008. "A Financial Metric for Comparing Volatility Models: Do Better Models Make Money?," Working Paper Series 4009, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
  38. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
  40. Chih-Nan Chen & Chien-Hsiu Lin, 2022. "Optimal carry trade portfolio choice under regime shifts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 483-506, August.
  41. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
  42. Kenneth D. West, 2017. "Hansen and Sargent's Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(1), pages 173-181, March.
  43. De Arce Borda, R., 2004. "20 años de modelos ARCH: una visión de conjunto de las distintas variantes de la familia/20 Years of Arch Modelling: a Survey of Different Models in the Family," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-27, Abril.
  44. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2012. "Realized Covariance Tick-by-Tick in Presence of Rounded Time Stamps and General Microstructure Effects," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 591-616, September.
  45. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  46. Bollerslev, Tim & Ghysels, Eric, 1996. "Periodic Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 139-151, April.
  47. Cheng, Gang & Yang, Yuhong, 2015. "Forecast combination with outlier protection," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 223-237.
  48. David Ardia & Lukasz T. Gatarek & Lennart Hoogerheide & Herman K. Van Dijk, 2016. "Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19, March.
  49. repec:hal:journl:peer-00844809 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  51. Lien, Donald & Wilson, Bradley K., 2001. "Multiperiod hedging in the presence of stochastic volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 395-406.
  52. Bork, Lasse & Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira & Sercu, Piet, 2022. "Aggregation bias in tests of the commodity currency hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  53. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
  54. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  55. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Andrew Tsang, 2022. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in the main and the satellite Renminbi exchange rate markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 606-628, May.
  56. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Microstructure order flow: statistical and economic evaluation of nonlinear forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 40-52.
  57. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
  58. Nick Taylor, 2017. "Risk Control: Who Cares?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), pages 153-179, January.
  59. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  60. Holger Fink & Andreas Fuest & Henry Port, 2018. "The Impact of Sovereign Yield Curve Differentials on Value-at-Risk Forecasts for Foreign Exchange Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-19, August.
  61. Hamid, Alain & Heiden, Moritz, 2015. "Forecasting volatility with empirical similarity and Google Trends," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 62-81.
  62. Allen, David & Lizieri, Colin & Satchell, Stephen, 2020. "A comparison of non-Gaussian VaR estimation and portfolio construction techniques," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 356-368.
  63. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
  64. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2017. "The one-trading-day-ahead forecast errors of intra-day realized volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1298-1314.
  65. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  66. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
  67. Çakmaklı, Cem & van Dijk, Dick, 2016. "Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting excess stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 650-668.
  68. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  69. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654.
  70. Skouras, Spyros, 2007. "Decisionmetrics: A decision-based approach to econometric modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 414-440, April.
  71. Pouliasis, Panos K. & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "Shipping equity risk behavior and portfolio management," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 178-200.
  72. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2011. "On economic evaluation of directional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1058-1065, October.
  73. Chongcheul Cheong & Tesfa Mehari & Leighton Williams, 2006. "Dynamic Links Between Unexpected Exchange Rate Variation, Prices, and International Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 221-233, April.
  74. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
  75. Panos K. Pouliasis & Nikos C. Papapostolou, 2018. "Volatility and correlation timing: The role of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1407-1439, November.
  76. Tsunehiro Ishihara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat-tailed errors and leverage," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 63-94, March.
  77. Chou, Ray Yeutien & Liu, Nathan, 2010. "The economic value of volatility timing using a range-based volatility model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2288-2301, November.
  78. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
  79. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2005. "Predictability and model selection in the context of ARCH models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 55-82, January.
  80. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
  81. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
  82. Ceci, Vladimiro & Manganelli, Simone & Vecchiato, Walter, 2002. "Sensitivity analysis of volatility: a new tool for risk management," Working Paper Series 194, European Central Bank.
  83. Susan Thomas & Mandira Sarma & Ajay Shah, 2003. "Selection of Value-at-Risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 337-358.
  84. Angela Abbate & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time varying parameter models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(1), pages 155-179, January.
  85. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting the volatility of gold-price fluctuations under flexible loss," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 95-107.
  86. Massimo Guidolin & Erwin Hansen & Gabriel Cabrera, 2023. "Time-Varying Risk Aversion and International Stock Returns," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23203, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  87. Bauwens, Luc & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2010. "General-to-specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: A forecast evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 885-907, October.
  88. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
  89. Cheong, Chongcheul & Mehari, Tesfa & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2005. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on price competitiveness and trade volumes in the UK: A disaggregated approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 961-970, November.
  90. Nourou, Mohammadou, 2015. "Can Mastitis ‘Contaminate’ Poultry? Evidence on the Transmission of Volatility between Poultry and Other Commodity Prices," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(A), pages 1-14, July.
  91. Le, Van & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2010. "The role of trading volume in volatility forecasting," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 533-555, December.
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  94. Pablo Pincheira & Roberto Álvarez, 2012. "Evaluation of Short Run Inflation Forecasts in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 674, Central Bank of Chile.
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  107. Tsunehiro Ishihara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Portfolio optimization using dynamic factor and stochastic volatility: evidence on Fat-tailed errors and leverage," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 63-94, March.
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  129. Cem Cakmakli & Verda Ozturk, 2021. "Economic Value of Modeling the Joint Distribution of Returns and Volatility: Leverage Timing," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2110, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
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