Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar
A Model of the forward rate error of the USD/AUD spot exchange rate is fitted to daily data for the period 15th December 1983 to 31st December 1991. This provides a data set of 2034 daily trading observations. Explanations of the forecast error include a risk premium represented by a constant plus the conditional variance generated from a GARCH (1,1)-M analysis of the error process and information variables in the form of lagged forward rate errors. The following conclusions are drawn form estimates for the full sample: the USD/AUD spot rate is subject to a constant premium: there is little evidence to support a time varying component and the market is influenced by lagged forward errors. Sub period estimation confirms these results, although a time varying premium is evident prior to the February 1985 depreciation. The economic implications of these findings are discussed. [F31]
Volume (Year): 11 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RIEJ20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987.
"Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances,"
NBER Working Papers
2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-38, April-Jun.
- Brock, William A., 1980.
"Asset Prices in a Production Economy,"
275, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Tease, Warren J, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(184), pages 2-13, March.
- Felmingham, B S & Buchanan, Michael, 1993. "The Discrete Variation of the Risk Premium on the Australian Dollar," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 329-40, August.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Siegel, Jeremy J, 1972. "Risk, Interest, and Forward Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 303-09, May.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1993.
"A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
441, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
- Kenneth D. West & Hali J. Edison & Dongchul Cho, 1992. "A Utility Based Comparison of Some Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roper, Don E, 1975. "The Role of Expected Value Analysis for Speculative Decisions in the Forward Currency Market: Comment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 157-69, February.
- Bilson, John F O, 1981.
"The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-51, July.
- Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986.
"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Robert J. Hodrick, 1983. "Risk Averse Speculation in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market: An Econometric Analysis of Linear Models," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 113-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Robert J. Hodrick, 1987.
"Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:11:y:1997:i:3:p:47-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.