IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v14y2004i15p1075-1085.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Options trading profits from correlation forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • James Chong

Abstract

This study examines the profitability of trading currency straddles on the basis of the volatility and correlation forecasts derived from various statistical models. There is evidence to demonstrate that for maximum wealth accumulation, a trader should employ sophisticated models like the exponential GARCH for correlation forecasts and simpler ones like the exponential weighted moving average for volatility forecasts. With differing transaction costs structure between traders, the directional bets taken by the models of the market maker for the most part appear successful, reaping large positive returns. This is especially evident for GBP/DEM straddles and to a lesser extent for JPY/DEM straddles. However, the options trading strategy profits of the price taker are insufficient to outweigh transaction costs, a result considered consistent with market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • James Chong, 2004. "Options trading profits from correlation forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1075-1085.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:15:p:1075-1085
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000281194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960310042000281194
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
    4. Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane & Jaesun Noh, 1993. "Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 4519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2004. "Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1204-1221, September.
    6. Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, "undated". "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    9. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
    10. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Michele Gobbo, 2006. "Flexible Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH models for asset allocation," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 123-130, March.
    2. M. Brunetti & C. Torricelli, 2007. "The internal and cross market efficiency in index option markets: an investigation of the Italian market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 25-33.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:15:p:1075-1085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.