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Does the risk of exchange rate fluctuation really affect international trade flows between countries?

Author

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  • Chongcheul Cheong

    () (Pusan National University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the UK's import trade. As part of econometric problems arising from a measured volatility, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate, and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of a primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on Britain''s imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Chongcheul Cheong, 2004. "Does the risk of exchange rate fluctuation really affect international trade flows between countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(4), pages 1-8.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-04f10002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Holly, Sean, 1995. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand Effects," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 381-391, November.
    3. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 23-45.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", pages 125-132.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    6. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    7. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 187-220.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Akram Hasanov & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2014. "Exchange-Rate Risk and Exports," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 80-101.
    2. Atif Kafayat, 2014. "Effects of Exchange Rate Instability on Imports and Exports of Pakistan," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, pages 205-215.
    3. V Polodoo & B Seetanah & Sannassee R. V, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(5), pages 241-256.
    4. Ezeanyeji Clement I. & Onwuteaka Ifeoma. C., 2016. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Sensitivity on the Nigerian Manufacturing Sector," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, pages 40-50.
    5. Liu, Zugang & Nagurney, Anna, 2011. "Supply chain outsourcing under exchange rate risk and competition," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 539-549, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH model Consistent OLS estimation Exchange rate fluctuations International trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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