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Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand Effects

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  • Holly, Sean

Abstract

Unpredictable fluctuations in the exchange rate can increase the uncertainty that suppliers face in overseas markets if contracts are written in foreign currency. There is an extensive literature on how the volatility of exchange rates can affect trade patterns. In this paper, the author does two things. First he examines how exchange rate uncertainty can affect both the supply of and demand for exports. He then uses a generalized ARCH process to represent the volatility of the exchange rate. Our results suggest that exchange rate volatility does have a role to play in explaining the supply of exports but does not have a significant effect on the demand for exports. However, the effect, though significant statistically, is small. Copyright 1995 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Holly, Sean, 1995. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand Effects," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(4), pages 381-391, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:42:y:1995:i:4:p:381-91
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pål Boug & Andreas Fagereng, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 851-864.
    3. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Eithne Murphy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 193-208.
    4. Molina, Imelda R. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Pede, Valerien O. & Valera, Harold Glenn A., 2013. "Modeling the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Thai Rice Exports," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150429, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:4:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fountas, Stilianos & Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 1999. "Has the European Monetary System led to more exports? Evidence from four European Union countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 357-363, March.
    7. Akram Shavkatovich Hasanov Author_Email: & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Mahendran Shitan & Zainidin Karimovich Eshkuvatov, 2011. "Exchange Rate Risk And Trade Flows: A Gravity Equation Approach," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-312, Conference Master Resources.
    8. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    10. Chongcheul Cheong & Tesfa Mehari & Leighton Williams, 2006. "Dynamic Links Between Unexpected Exchange Rate Variation, Prices, and International Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 221-233, April.
    11. Hasanov Akram, 2011. "Exchange rate risk and trade flows: the case of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 11/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    12. Scheide, Joachim & Solveen, Ralph, 1997. "Should the European Central Bank worry about exchange rates?," Kiel Working Papers 800, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    13. Cheong, Chongcheul & Mehari, Tesfa & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2005. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on price competitiveness and trade volumes in the UK: A disaggregated approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 961-970, November.
    14. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, 2000. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Business Sector Investment," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0600, Econometric Society.
    15. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chongcheul Cheong, 2004. "Does the risk of exchange rate fluctuation really affect international trade flows between countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(4), pages 1-8.

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