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Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen & Dotta, Mario, 2025. "Estimating Behavioral Inattention," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  2. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
  4. Prati, Alberto & Saucet, Charlotte, 2024. "The causal effect of a health treatment on beliefs, stated preferences and memories," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  5. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
  6. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram & Saadon, Yossi, 2022. "Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 205-226.
  7. Zohar, Osnat, 2024. "Cyclicality of uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  8. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
  9. Zhao, Yongchen, 2019. "Updates to household inflation expectations: Signal or noise?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 95-98.
  10. An, Zidong & Liu, Dingqian & Wu, Yuzheng, 2021. "Expectation formation following pandemic events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  11. Metodij Hadzi‐Vaskov & Luca Antonio Ricci & Alejandro Mariano Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2023. "What drives economic growth forecast revisions?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 1068-1092, August.
  12. Leland E. Farmer & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2024. "Learning about the Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(10), pages 3334-3377.
  13. Barrero, Jose Maria, 2022. "The micro and macro of managerial beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 640-667.
  14. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2021. "Presidential Address: How Much “Rationality” Is There in Bond‐Market Risk Premiums?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1611-1654, August.
  15. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  16. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  17. José-Elías Gallegos, 2024. "HANK beyond FIRE: Amplification, forward guidance, and belief shocks," Working Papers 2418, Banco de España.
  18. J. Daniel Aromí & Martín Llada, 2024. "Are professional forecasters inattentive to public discussions about inflation? The case of Argentina," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 2572-2587, November.
  19. Khandelwal, Vatsal, 2024. "Learning in networks with idiosyncratic agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 225-249.
  20. Benchimol, Jonathan & Bounader, Lahcen, 2023. "Optimal monetary policy under bounded rationality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  21. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
  22. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  23. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2023. "Fundamental Volatility and Financial Stability," Working Papers halshs-04210677, HAL.
  24. Si, Yi & Yu, Minfeng & Zhang, Lei & Zhou, Qing (Clara), 2025. "Board reforms and firm employment: Worldwide evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  25. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 29496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Ilek, Alex, 2021. "Are monetary surprises effective? The view of professional forecasters in Israel," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 516-530.
  27. Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2024. "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," Working Papers 24-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Dec 2024.
  28. Binz, Oliver & Mayew, William J. & Nallareddy, Suresh, 2022. "Firms’ response to macroeconomic estimation errors," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2).
  29. Kamdar, Rupal & Ray, Walker, 2024. "Attention-Driven Sentiment and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 18984, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
  31. Besley, Timothy & Fetzer, Thiemo & Mueller, Hannes, 2019. "Terror and Tourism: The Economic Consequences of Media Coverage," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 449, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  32. Johannes Schmidt, 2025. "The influence of short-term subjective expectations on stock price movements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 39(3), pages 303-333, September.
  33. Yves Breitmoser & Justin Valasek & Justin Mattias Valasek, 2023. "Why Do Committees Work?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10800, CESifo.
  34. Alexandre N. Kohlhas & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Asymmetric Attention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2879-2925, September.
  35. Bizzarri, Matteo & d’Arienzo, Daniele, 2024. "The social value of overreaction to information," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  36. Berardi, Michele, 2022. "Beliefs asymmetry and price stability in a cobweb model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 401-415.
  37. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
  38. Laeven, Luc & Baron, Matthew & Penasse, Julien & Usenko, Yevhenii, 2021. "Investing in Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 15858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  40. Breitmoser, Yves & Valasek, Justin, 2023. "Why do committees work?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 18/2023, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
  41. Christopher S Sutherland, 2022. "Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach," BIS Working Papers 1024, Bank for International Settlements.
  42. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403260, HAL.
  43. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  44. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
  45. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
  46. Andrade, Philippe & Gautier, Erwan & Mengus, Eric, 2023. "What matters in households’ inflation expectations?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 50-68.
  47. Jonathan Adams & Philip Barrett, 2024. "Shocks to Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 54, October.
  48. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2021. "Managing self-organization of expectations through monetary policy: A macro experiment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-186.
  49. Jacopo Bizzotto & Davide Cipullo & André Reslow, 2024. "Biased Forecasts and Voting: The Brexit Referendum Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 11221, CESifo.
  50. Jessica A. Wachter, 2020. "Comment on "Imperfect Expectations: Theory and Evidence"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 87-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial cycles under diagnostic beliefs," Working Paper Series 2659, European Central Bank.
  52. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  53. Yang, Yanhua Sunny & Yung, Chris, 2024. "Do analysts distribute negative opinions earlier?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  54. Jonathan J Adams, 2024. "Optimal Policy Without Rational Expectations: A Sufficient Statistic Solution," Working Papers 001011, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
  55. Kirti, Divya, 2025. "Lending standards and output growth," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  56. William Du & Adrian Monninger & Xincheng Qiu & Tao Wang, 2025. "Perceived Unemployment Risks over Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 25-23, Bank of Canada.
  57. Edward P. Herbst & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The Factor Structure of Disagreement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  58. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
  59. Enke, Benjamin & Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2024. "Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  60. Benjamin Beckers & Anthony Brassil, 2022. "Inflation Expectations in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(1), pages 125-135, March.
  61. Bao, Te & Corgnet, Brice & Hanaki, Nobuyuki & Riyanto, Yohanes E. & Zhu, Jiahua, 2023. "Predicting the unpredictable: New experimental evidence on forecasting random walks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  62. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot, 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 18259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  63. Clements, Michael P., 2025. "Inconsistent survey histograms and point forecasts revisited," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  64. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025. "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers 2025-001, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
  65. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
  66. Goldstein, Nathan & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 2021. "Do forecasters really care about consensus?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  67. Frache, Serafin & Lluberas, Rodrigo & Turen, Javier, 2024. "Belief-dependent pricing decisions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  68. Han, Leyla Jianyu, 2025. "Announcements, expectations, and stock returns with asymmetric information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  69. Pei Kuang & Li Tang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2025. "Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 79(2), pages 657-685, March.
  70. Besley, Timothy & Fetzer, Thiemo & Mueller, Hannes, 2023. "How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 692, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  71. Bianchi-Vimercati, Riccardo & Eichenbaum, Martin & Guerreiro, Joao, 2024. "Fiscal stimulus with imperfect expectations: Spending vs. tax policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
  72. Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 37-47.
  73. Arpan Chakraborty, 2024. "Beyond Rationality: Unveiling the Role of Animal Spirits and Inflation Extrapolation in Central Bank Communication of the US," Papers 2409.10938, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
  74. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  75. Roberto Casarin & Antonio Peruzzi & Davide Raggi, 2025. "Multiple Equilibria and the Phillips Curve: Do Agents Always Underreact?," Working Papers 2025: 10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  76. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
  77. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2020. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," BERG Working Paper Series 163, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  78. Kerry Xiao & Amy Zang, 2025. "Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports," Papers 2505.12269, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
  79. Isaac Baley & Javier Turen, 2024. "Lumpy forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1898, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  80. Mikhaylov, Dmitry, 2023. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with the Use of News Data," Working Papers w20220250, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  81. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2025. "Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 274-309, January.
  82. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
  83. Nathan Goldstein & Ben‐Zion Zilberfarb, 2023. "The closer we get, the better we are?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 364-376, April.
  84. Mangee, Nicholas, 2024. "Stock price swings and fundamentals: The role of Knightian uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  85. Leland Bybee, 2023. "Surveying Generative AI's Economic Expectations," Papers 2305.02823, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
  86. Jing Tian & Firmin Doko Tchatoka & Thomas Goodwin, 2022. "Are internally consistent forecasts rational?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1338-1355, November.
  87. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2025. "Asset Prices and Credit with Diagnostic Expectations," Working Paper Series 2025-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  88. Cars Hommes & Kostas Mavromatis & Tolga Özden & Mei Zhu, 2023. "Behavioral learning equilibria in New Keynesian models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(4), pages 1401-1445, November.
  89. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/mqe122bu9lprrh0g2eloopgd is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
  91. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
  92. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
  93. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco & Lopes, Paula, 2025. "Evidence on expectations of household finances," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125547, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  94. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2024. "Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(5), pages 1450-1484.
  95. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
  96. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "How Big Data Dilutes Cognitive Resources, Interferes with Rational Decision-making and Affects Wealth Distribution ?," Papers 2508.20435, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
  97. Boehl, Gregor & Hommes, Cars, 2025. "Rational vs. irrational beliefs in a complex world," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
  98. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2025. "Expectational reference points and belief formation: Field evidence from financial analysts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  99. He, Wei & Su, Zhiwei & Yu, Jianfeng, 2024. "Macroeconomic perceptions, financial constraints, and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  100. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2019. "Overconfidence, subjective perception and pricing behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 107-132.
  101. Niemann, Stefan & Prein, Timm, 2024. "Sovereign Risk under Diagnostic Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  102. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  103. Ina Hajdini, 2022. "Mis-specified Forecasts and Myopia in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 22-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 06 Mar 2023.
  104. José-Elías Gallegos, 2023. "Inflation persistence, noisy information and the Phillips curve," Working Papers 2309, Banco de España.
  105. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
  106. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
  107. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2025. "Learning to be rational in the presence of news: A lab investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  108. Na, Seunghoon & Yoo, Donghoon, 2025. "Overreaction and macroeconomic fluctuation of the external balance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  109. Hagenhoff, Tim & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2023. "The role of stickiness, extrapolation and past consensus forecasts in macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  110. Rubén Fernández-Fuertes, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25257, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  111. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Hikaru Saijo, 2024. "Smooth Diagnostic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 32152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  112. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2019. "Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 26237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  113. Brice Corgnet & Camille Cornand & Pauline Gandré, 2025. "Can Information Shape Macroeconomic Disaster Risk Perception and Stimulate Investment? An Experiment with Experts and Laypersons," Working Papers hal-05131343, HAL.
  114. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2024. "Survey Expectations, Adaptive Learning and Inflation Dynamics," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp781, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  115. Rychalovska, Yuliya & Slobodyan, Sergey & Wouters, Raf, 2025. "Survey expectations, learning and inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  116. Francisco Amaral & Martin Dohmen & Sebastian Kohl & Moritz Schularick, 2021. "Superstar Returns," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03881493, HAL.
  117. Pablo Pastory y Camarasa & Martien Lamers, 2023. "Do Actions Follow Words? How bank sentiment predicts credit growth," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1073, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  118. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
  119. Gerotto, Luca & Paradiso, Antonio & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2025. "A tale of inattentiveness and the loss function: A model for household-level macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  120. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno, 2025. "Peer influence in macroeconomic predictions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  121. Kiss, Tamás & Kladívko, Kamil & Silfverberg, Oliwer & Österholm, Pär, 2023. "Market participants or the random walk – who forecasts better? Evidence from micro-level survey data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  122. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
  123. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
  124. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 338-354.
  125. Paulina Ziembińska, 2021. "Quality of Tests of Expectation Formation for Revised Data," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(4), pages 405-453, December.
  126. Xu, Xin & Xu, Xiaoguang, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission modeling and policy responses," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  127. Christopher S. Sutherland, 2023. "Forward guidance and expectation formation: A narrative approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 222-241, March.
  128. Chen, Xiaohong & Hansen, Lars Peter & Hansen, Peter G., 2024. "Robust inference for moment condition models without rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 243(1).
  129. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
  130. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2020. "The Nordhaus test with many zeros," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  131. Li, Ye & Wang, Chen, 2025. "The Information Cliff," SocArXiv bf8cx_v1, Center for Open Science.
  132. D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "IQ, expectations, and choice," Working Paper Series in Economics 127, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  133. Chen Lian, 2021. "Mistakes in Future Consumption, High MPCs Now," NBER Working Papers 29517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  134. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  135. Carlos Madeira, 2025. "The life experience of central bankers and monetary policy decisions: a cross-country dataset," BIS Working Papers 1304, Bank for International Settlements.
  136. Maenhout, Pascal J. & Vedolin, Andrea & Xing, Hao, 2025. "Robustness and dynamic sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  137. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
  138. Avramov, D. & Ge, S. & Li, S. & Linton, O. B., 2025. "Dual Industry Effects and Cross-Stock Predictability," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2506, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  139. Martin Iseringhausen & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2025. "A survey-based measure of asymmetric macroeconomic risk in the euro area," Working Papers 68, European Stability Mechanism, revised 11 Feb 2025.
  140. Fontanier, Paul, 2025. "Optimal policy for behavioral financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
  141. Tianhao Wu, 2024. "Consumption with Imperfect Income Expectations," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(1), pages 12-30.
  142. Xiao, Wei, 2022. "Understanding probabilistic expectations – a behavioral approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  143. Dietrich, Alexander M., 2024. "Consumption categories, household attention, and inflation expectations: Implications for optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
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  145. Michel Grimm & Torben Klarl, 2025. "From Heatwaves to Cold Spells: How Extreme Temperature Events Shape Inflation in Germany," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2502, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
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