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The influence of short-term subjective expectations on stock price movements

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  • Johannes Schmidt

    (University of St. Gallen)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of short-term subjective expectations in asset pricing by analyzing their explanatory power for stock price movements. I use a sample of the Swiss stock market from 2003 to 2022 to compute aggregate measures of subjective expectations. I find a strong positive relationship between subjective growth expectations and future realized growth. Furthermore, I observe that the forecast errors of subjective growth expectations are predictable, which should not be the case in a world of rational expectations. The proportions of variation in the price-dividend, price-earnings, and price-to-cash flow ratio are estimated using a variance decomposition approach. The results indicate that subjective expectations significantly contribute to these variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Schmidt, 2025. "The influence of short-term subjective expectations on stock price movements," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 39(3), pages 303-333, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:39:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11408-025-00469-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-025-00469-6
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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