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Citations for "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns"

by Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H

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  1. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1450040-1-1.
  2. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
  4. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
  5. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  6. John M. Maheu & Tom McCurdy, 2000. "Volatility Dynamics Under Duration-Dependent Mixing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1427, Econometric Society.
  7. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Mai Shibata, 2014. "The Influence of Japan’s Unsecured Overnight Call Rate on Bull and Bear Markets and Market Turns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 331-349, November.
  9. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers 201448, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  10. Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
  11. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
  12. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," MPRA Paper 36897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
  14. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
  15. Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1216, Econometric Society.
  16. Runquan Chen, 2009. "Regime switching in volatilities and correlation between stock and bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29306, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
  18. Zheng, Yao, 2015. "The linkage between aggregate investor sentiment and metal futures returns: A nonlinear approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 128-142.
  19. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009.
  20. Vítor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," NIPE Working Papers 13/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  21. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
  22. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-080 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.
  24. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  25. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Matsuda, Akimi, 2012. "Do Socially Responsible Investment Indexes Outperform Conventional Indexes?," MPRA Paper 36662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2016. "The infernal couple China-Oil Price and the Responses of G7 Equities: A QQ Approach," MPRA Paper 70379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  28. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
  29. Deng, Kaihua, 2016. "A test of asymmetric comovement for state-dependent stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 68-85.
  30. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
  31. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2014. "Time Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  32. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
  33. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  34. Denis Boudreaux & Spuma Rao & Phillip Fuller, 2010. "An investigation of the weekend effect during different market orientations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 257-268, July.
  35. Shu-Yi Liao & Sheng-Tung Chen & Mao-Lung Huang, 2016. "Will the oil price change damage the stock market in a bull market? A re-examination of their conditional relationships," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1135-1169, May.
  36. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-085 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Hiroshi Ishijima & Masaki Uchida, 2011. "The Regime Switching Portfolios," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189, May.
  38. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  39. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2013. "With whom and in what is it better to save? Personal pensions in the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 13/304, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  40. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  41. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
  42. Fernando Henrique De Paula E Silva Mendes & Guilherme Valle Mour, 2014. "Evidências De Bull E Bear Market No Índice Bovespa: Uma Aplicação De Modelos De Regime Markoviano E Duration Dependence," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 138, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  43. Kaliva, Kasimir & Koskinen, Lasse, 2008. "Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 592-603, June.
  44. Li, Mingsheng & McCormick, Timothy & Zhao, Xin, 2005. "Order imbalance and liquidity supply: Evidence from the bubble burst of Nasdaq stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 533-555, September.
  45. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
  46. Managi, Shunsuke & Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," MPRA Paper 46067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2015. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(41), pages 4408-4422, September.
  48. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  49. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," Faculty Working Papers 08/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  50. Abbas Valadkhani & George Chen, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the US stock market and output growth volatility spillover effects on three Anglo-Saxon countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 323-335, 05.
  51. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
  52. Yu-Lieh Huang & Chia-Wen Ho, 2008. "Demarcating stable and turbulent regimes in Taiwan's stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(35), pages 1-11.
  53. repec:ipg:wpaper:32 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
  55. J. V. Andersen & D Sornette, 2003. "Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0311089, arXiv.org.
  56. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
  57. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02.
  58. Luca De Angelis & Leonard J. Paas, 2013. "A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1682-1700, August.
  59. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  61. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," MPRA Paper 68666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  63. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  64. Yu-Lieh Huang, 2009. "Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1477-1481.
  65. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  66. Christian Friedrich & Melanie Klein, 2009. "On the Look-Out for the Bear: Predicting Stock Market Downturns in G7 Countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  67. Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M, 2015. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," MPRA Paper 71120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2013. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-016-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  69. Zolotoy, L., 2008. "Empirical essays on the information transfer between and the informational efficiency of stock markets," Other publications TiSEM 2a2652c6-1060-4622-8721-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  70. Ma-Ju Wang, 2014. "A Study on the Differences in Adopting Cash Refund Capital Reduction and Stock Repurchase By Companies in Bull and Bear Stock Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 1237-1253, September.
  71. Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
  72. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-032 is not listed on IDEAS
  73. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  74. Chan, Wing Hong & Young, Denise, 2009. "A New Look at Copper Markets: A Regime-Switching Jump Model," Working Papers 2009-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  75. Gonzalez, Liliana & Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing & Wilson, Antony, 2005. "Two centuries of bull and bear market cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 469-486.
  76. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
  77. Chen, Haiqiang & Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Bai, Jushan, 2012. "Theory and Applications of TAR Model with Two Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Losing track of the asset markets: the case of housing and stock," ISER Discussion Paper 0932, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  80. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  81. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014. "A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
  82. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  83. Bulla, Jan, 2009. "Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects," MPRA Paper 21830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
  85. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
  86. Shue-Jen Wu & Wei-Ming Lee, 2012. "Predicting the U.S. bear stock market using the consumption-wealth ratio," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3174-3181.
  87. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
  88. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
  89. Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Zied Ftiti, 2013. "Sudden Changes in Volatility in European Stock Markets," Working Papers 2013-32, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  90. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Hinich, Melvin J., 2008. "Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 527-544, December.
  91. Mai Shibata, 2012. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Japan," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 99-117, May.
  92. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
  93. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2013. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," MPRA Paper 49093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  94. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  95. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  96. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Detecting Switching Strategies in Equity Hedge Funds," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  97. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS
  98. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
  99. repec:wyi:journl:002152 is not listed on IDEAS
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