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Citations for "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns"

by Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H

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  1. Wasim Ahmad & N. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2015. "Regime dependent dynamics and European stock markets: Is asset allocation really possible?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 77-107, February.
  2. Shu-Yi Liao & Sheng-Tung Chen & Mao-Lung Huang, 2016. "Will the oil price change damage the stock market in a bull market? A re-examination of their conditional relationships," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 1135-1169, May.
  3. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2012. "Moments of multivariate regime switching with application to risk-return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 292-308.
  4. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014. "A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
  5. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  6. Woodward, George & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2005. "Introducing non-linear dynamics to the two-regime market model: Evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 559-581, September.
  7. Christian Friedrich & Melanie Klein, 2009. "On the Look-Out for the Bear: Predicting Stock Market Downturns in G7 Countries," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 451, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2013. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-016-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  9. Abbas Valadkhani & George Chen, 2014. "An empirical analysis of the US stock market and output growth volatility spillover effects on three Anglo-Saxon countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 323-335, 05.
  10. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Mai Shibata, 2012. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Japan," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 99-117, May.
  12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-085 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
  14. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
  15. J. V. Andersen & D Sornette, 2003. "Fearless versus Fearful Speculative Financial Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0311089, arXiv.org.
  16. Mai Shibata, 2014. "The Influence of Japan’s Unsecured Overnight Call Rate on Bull and Bear Markets and Market Turns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 331-349, November.
  17. Valadkhani, Abbas & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "Switching and asymmetric behaviour of the Okun coefficient in the US: Evidence for the 1948–2015 period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 281-290.
  18. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2016. "The infernal couple China-Oil Price and the Responses of G7 Equities: A QQ Approach," MPRA Paper 70379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  20. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
  21. Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
  22. Iiboshi, Hirokuni, 2007. "Duration dependence of the business cycle in Japan: A Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 86-111, January.
  23. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2010. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," MPRA Paper 34104, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2011.
  24. Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
  25. Liu, Jia & Maheu, John M, 2015. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," MPRA Paper 71120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Gonzalez, Liliana & Powell, John G. & Shi, Jing & Wilson, Antony, 2005. "Two centuries of bull and bear market cycles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 469-486.
  27. Vassilios Babalos & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Nikolaos Philippas, 2014. "Revisiting Herding Behavior in REITs: A RegimeSwitching Approach," Working Papers 15-15, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
  28. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
  29. Fabrice Hervé, 2006. "Les fonds de pension protègent-ils les investisseurs des évolutions du marché?," Working Papers CREGO 1060101, Université de Bourgogne - CREGO EA7317 Centre de recherches en gestion des organisations.
  30. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2000. "Volatility dynamics under duration-dependent mixing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 345-372, November.
  31. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2001. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-42, CIRANO.
  32. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2012. "Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1781-1788.
  33. Hiroshi Ishijima & Masaki Uchida, 2011. "The Regime Switching Portfolios," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189, May.
  34. Rania Jammazi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2014. "Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regimeswitching perspective," Working Papers 2014-80, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  35. Runquan Chen, 2009. "Regime switching in volatilities and correlation between stock and bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 29306, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  36. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  37. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
  38. Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Zied Ftiti, 2013. "Sudden Changes in Volatility in European Stock Markets," Working Papers 2013-32, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  39. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
  40. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  41. Zolotoy, L., 2008. "Empirical essays on the information transfer between and the informational efficiency of stock markets," Other publications TiSEM 2a2652c6-1060-4622-8721-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  42. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2003. "Equity Indexing: Conitegration and Stock Price Dispersion: A Regime Switiching Approach to market Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  43. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  44. Shunsuke Managi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto & Akimi Matsuda, 2012. "Do socially responsible investment indexes outperform conventional indexes?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(18), pages 1511-1527, September.
  45. repec:ipg:wpaper:32 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Detecting Switching Strategies in Equity Hedge Funds," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  47. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00658540, HAL.
  48. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  49. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy," MPRA Paper 68666, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Vítor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Stock Market Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," NIPE Working Papers 13/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  51. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  52. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Hinich, Melvin J., 2008. "Nonlinear serial dependence and the weak-form efficiency of Asian emerging stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 527-544, December.
  53. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2012. "In the shadow of the United States: the international transmission effect of asset returns," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 121, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  54. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  55. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
  56. Luca De Angelis & Leonard J. Paas, 2013. "A dynamic analysis of stock markets using a hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 1682-1700, August.
  57. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  58. Deng, Kaihua, 2016. "A test of asymmetric comovement for state-dependent stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 68-85.
  59. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
  60. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2009. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," NCER Working Paper Series 39, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 02 Jul 2009.
  61. Anastasia Petraki & Anna Zalewska, 2013. "With whom and in what is it better to save? Personal pensions in the UK," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 13/304, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  62. Ma-Ju Wang, 2014. "A Study on the Differences in Adopting Cash Refund Capital Reduction and Stock Repurchase By Companies in Bull and Bear Stock Markets," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(9), pages 1237-1253, September.
  63. Jan Bulla, 2010. "Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 459-475.
  64. Denis Boudreaux & Spuma Rao & Phillip Fuller, 2010. "An investigation of the weekend effect during different market orientations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(3), pages 257-268, July.
  65. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02.
  66. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  67. Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
  68. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
  69. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
  70. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2014. "Time Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  71. Li, Mingsheng & McCormick, Timothy & Zhao, Xin, 2005. "Order imbalance and liquidity supply: Evidence from the bubble burst of Nasdaq stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 533-555, September.
  72. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L.A. & Gracia, Fernando Perez de, 2010. "Mean reversion in stock market prices: New evidence based on bull and bear markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 113-122, June.
  73. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2013. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," MPRA Paper 49093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  74. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  75. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
  76. Yu-Lieh Huang, 2009. "Identifying turbulent and calm regimes in stock prices: evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1477-1481.
  77. Chan, Wing Hong & Young, Denise, 2009. "A New Look at Copper Markets: A Regime-Switching Jump Model," Working Papers 2009-13, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  78. repec:ipg:wpaper:2013-032 is not listed on IDEAS
  79. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "Regional and global spillovers and diversification opportunities in the GCC equity sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 160-187.
  80. repec:wyi:journl:002152 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Chen, Haiqiang & Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Bai, Jushan, 2012. "Theory and Applications of TAR Model with Two Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  82. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
  83. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11711 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  85. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
  86. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  87. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
  88. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Losing track of the asset markets: the case of housing and stock," ISER Discussion Paper 0932, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  89. Shue-Jen Wu & Wei-Ming Lee, 2012. "Predicting the U.S. bear stock market using the consumption-wealth ratio," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3174-3181.
  90. Managi, Shunsuke & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Does the price of oil interact with clean energy prices in the stock market?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-9.
  91. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
  92. Kaliva, Kasimir & Koskinen, Lasse, 2008. "Stock market bubbles, inflation and investment risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 592-603, June.
  93. Zheng, Yao, 2015. "The linkage between aggregate investor sentiment and metal futures returns: A nonlinear approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 128-142.
  94. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "Amplitude-Duration-Persistence Trade-off Relationship for Long Term Bear Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 54177, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  95. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
  96. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-080 is not listed on IDEAS
  97. Yu-Lieh Huang & Chia-Wen Ho, 2008. "Demarcating stable and turbulent regimes in Taiwan's stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(35), pages 1-11.
  98. Fernando Henrique De Paula E Silva Mendes & Guilherme Valle Mour, 2014. "Evidências De Bull E Bear Market No Índice Bovespa: Uma Aplicação De Modelos De Regime Markoviano E Duration Dependence," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 138, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
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