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Citations for "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications"

by Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S

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  1. Manuela Goretti, 2005. "The Brazilian Currency Turmoil of 2002: A Nonlinear Analysis," International Finance 0506001, EconWPA.
  2. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond, Inês, 2013. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," Research Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland.
  3. Simon Gilchrist & Benoît Mojon, 2014. "Credit Risk in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 20041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
  5. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2001. "Dynamic specifications in optimizing trend-deviation macro models," Research Working Paper RWP 01-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  6. Mark Taylor & Ashoka Mody, 2004. "International Capital Crunches: The Time-Varying Role Of Informational Asymmetries," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 113, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Merola, Rossana, 2015. "The role of financial frictions during the crisis: An estimated DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 70-82.
  8. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2005. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0503005, EconWPA.
  9. Basistha, Arabinda & Kurov, Alexander, 2008. "Macroeconomic cycles and the stock market's reaction to monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2606-2616, December.
  10. Marvin Barth & Eli Remolona & Philip Wooldridge, 2002. "Changes in market functioning and central bank policy: an overview of the issues," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 1-24 Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Narayan Kundan Kishor & Monique Newiak, 2014. "The Instability In The Monetary Policy Reaction Function And The Estimation Of Monetary Policy Shocks," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 390-402, 04.
  12. Chang Min LEE & Hahn Shik LEE, 2016. "Improving the Predictive Power of Spreads for Economic Activity: A Wavelet Method," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 65-78, December.
  13. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2002. "Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 3595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Theory Ahead of Measurement? Assessing the Nonlinear Effects of Financial Market Disruptions," Working Paper 16-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  15. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2010. "Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 43(3), pages 321-337.
  16. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
  17. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
  18. Ferre De Graeve, 2006. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 84, Society for Computational Economics.
  19. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
  20. Gilchrist, Simon & Sim, Jae W. & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-69, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "Financial predictors of real activity and the propagation of aggregate shocks," Economics working papers 2006-16, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  22. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc & Stevanovic, Dalibor, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Walentin, Karl, 2014. "Business cycle implications of mortgage spreads," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 62-77.
  24. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2003. "Characterizing Global Investors' Risk Appetite for Emerging Market Debt During Financial Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/251, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
  26. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  27. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2003. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," NBER Working Papers 9459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2012. "An Empirical Study of Credit Shock Transmission in a Small Open Economy," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-16, CIRANO.
  29. Christiano, Lawrence & Rostagno, Massimo & Motto, Roberto, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
  30. Heather M. Anderson & George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," CAMA Working Papers 2006-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  31. Barnichon, Régis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. repec:ehl:lserod:56407 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
  34. Antonio David, 2009. "Are price-based capital account regulations effective in developing countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(26), pages 3375-3388.
  35. Philip Brock & Helmut Franken M., 2003. "Sobre los Determinantes de los Spreads Marginal y Promedio de las Tasas de Interés Bancarias: Chile 1994-2001," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 6(3), pages 45-65, December.
  36. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 70489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Laurent Clerk & Christian Pfister, 2003. "The role of financial factors in the transmission of monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 192-212 Bank for International Settlements.
  38. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," MPRA Paper 56737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Thomas B. King & Andrew T. Levin & Roberto Perli, 2007. "Financial market perceptions of recession risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  40. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1603, University of Tampere, School of Management, Economics.
  41. Simon M. Potter & Edward E. Leamer, 2004. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 490, Econometric Society.
  42. Cook, Douglas O. & Tang, Tian, 2010. "Macroeconomic conditions and capital structure adjustment speed," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-87, February.
  43. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  44. Alfred V Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2013. "The Centre Matters for the Periphery of Europe: The Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity in Europe," Working Papers in Economics 13/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  45. Mody, Ashoka & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2005. "A Cross-Country Financial Accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 5037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. de Bondt, Gabe & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2004. "The high-yield segment of the corporate bond market: a diffusion modelling approach for the United States, the United Kingdom and the euro area," Working Paper Series 0313, European Central Bank.
  47. David, Antonio C., 2007. "Revisiting Price-based Controls on Capital Inflows in a "Sophisticated" Emerging Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1329-1340, August.
  48. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-50.
  49. Grunspan, T., 2005. "The Fed and the Question of Financial Stability: An Empirical Investigation," Working papers 134, Banque de France.
  50. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  51. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Credit Supply Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 195-232, June.
  52. Roland Meeks, 2006. "Credit Shocks and Cycles: a Bayesian Calibration Approach," Economics Papers 2006-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  53. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2015. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1047-1072, November.
  54. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2015. "Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 10462, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  55. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  56. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2013. "High yield spreads, real economic activity, and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 346-355.
  57. Iryna V. Ivaschenko & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2001. "Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity; An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components," IMF Working Papers 01/158, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Fiscal Policy And Lending Relationships," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 696-712, 04.
  59. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
  60. Ji, Kan & Qian, Zongxin, 2015. "Does tax policy affect credit spreads? Evidence from the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 318-329.
  61. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Egon Zakrajsek, 2004. "The magnitude and cyclical behavior of financial market frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  62. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  63. Jardet, Caroline, 2004. "Why did the term structure of interest rates lose its predictive power?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 509-524, May.
  64. Martin Cihak & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
  65. Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek & Simon Gilchrist, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," 2009 Meeting Papers 514, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  66. Won-Gi Kim & Noh-Sun Kwark, 2012. "Leading Behavior of Interest Rate Term Spreads and Credit Risk Spreads in Korea," Working Papers 1203, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  67. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2010. "Should We Trust in Leading Indicators? Evidence from the Recent Recession," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  68. Mark A. Carlson & Thomas B. King & Kurt F. Lewis, 2008. "Distress in the financial sector and economic activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  69. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  70. Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan & de Vries, Casper, 2005. "Banking system stability: a cross-Atlantic perspective," Working Paper Series 0527, European Central Bank.
  71. Gabe De Bondt, 2005. "Determinants of corporate debt securities in the Euro area," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 493-509.
  72. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1292-1310, December.
  73. Johann Burgstaller, 2006. "The cyclicality of interest rate spreads in Austria: Evidence for a financial decelerator?," Economics working papers 2006-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  74. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  75. Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, 2015. "On the Information Flow from Credit Derivatives to the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015/21, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  76. repec:trn:utwpde:0606 is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "A U.S. Financial Conditions Index; Putting Credit Where Credit is Due," IMF Working Papers 08/161, International Monetary Fund.
  78. Garcia-Appendini, Emilia & Montoriol-Garriga, Judit, 2013. "Firms as liquidity providers: Evidence from the 2007–2008 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 272-291.
  79. Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  80. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2016. "Losing Track of the Asset Markets: the Case of Housing and Stock," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 435-492.
  81. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
  82. Eddie Gerba, 2015. "Have the US macro-financial linkages changed? The balance sheet dimension," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59886, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  83. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  84. repec:acb:camaaa:2006-14 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. Kaya, Orcun & Wang, Lulu, 2014. "The role of bank lending tightening on corporate bond issuance in the eurozone," CFS Working Paper Series 456, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  86. Rodrigo Alfaro & Helmut Franken & Carlos García & Alejandro Jara, 2003. "Bank Lending Channel and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: the Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 223, Central Bank of Chile.
  87. Colla, Paolo & Hellowell, Mark & Vecchi, Veronica & Gatti, Stefano, 2015. "Determinants of the cost of capital for privately financed hospital projects in the UK," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(11), pages 1442-1449.
  88. Alfred Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2017. "The predictive ability of a risk-adjusted yield spread for economic activity in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-27, February.
  89. Saar, Dan & Yagil, Yossi, 2015. "Forecasting growth and stock performance using government and corporate yield curves: Evidence from the European and Asian markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-41.
  90. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  91. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2015. "Losing track of the asset markets: the case of housing and stock," ISER Discussion Paper 0932, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  92. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 71-90.
  93. Elyasiani, Elyas & Keegan, Jason, 2017. "Market Discipline in the Secondary Bond Market: The Case of Systemically Important Banks," Working Papers 17-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  94. Ian Marsh, 2002. "What central banks can learn about default risk from credit markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 329-339 Bank for International Settlements.
  95. Brenner, Menachem & Pasquariello, Paolo & Subrahmanyam, Marti, 2009. "On the Volatility and Comovement of U.S. Financial Markets around Macroeconomic News Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(06), pages 1265-1289, December.
  96. Bassetto, Marco & Benzoni, Luca & Serrao, Trevor, 2016. "The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Paper Series WP-2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  97. Laurent Clerc & Françoise Drumetz & François Haas, 2002. "The influence of structural changes on market functioning and its implications for monetary policy: a focus on the euro area," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 43-64 Bank for International Settlements.
  98. Peter F. Basile & Sung Won Kang & John Landon-Lane & Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "Towards a History of the Junk Bond Market, 1910-1955," Departmental Working Papers 201514, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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