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Policy evaluation, randomized controlled trials, and external validity: A systematic review

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  • Peters, Jörg
  • Langbein, Jörg
  • Roberts, Gareth

Abstract

When properly implemented, Randomized Controlled Trials (RCT) can achieve a high degree of internal validity. Yet, if an RCT is to inform policy interventions that extend beyond the experimental population, it is critical to establish external validity. In this paper, we first present a theoretical framework of external validity and identify the potential hazards that compromise generalizing results beyond the studied population, namely Hawthorne effects, general equilibrium effects, specific sample problems, and special care in the provision of the randomized treatment. Second, we reviewed all RCTs published in leading economic journals between 2009 and 2014 and scrutinized the way they deal with external validity. Based on a set of objective indicators, we find that many published RCTs do not discuss hazards to external validity and do not provide the information that is necessary to assess potential problems. Apparently, external validity is not an important matter of concern during the peer review process. To conclude, we call for a more systematic approach to report the results of RCTs, including external validity dimensions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peters, Jörg & Langbein, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2015. "Policy evaluation, randomized controlled trials, and external validity: A systematic review," Ruhr Economic Papers 589, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:589
    DOI: 10.4419/86788684
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    2. Hoffmann, Nimi, 2020. "Involuntary experiments in former colonies: The case for a moratorium," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Jörg Peters & Jörg Langbein & Gareth Roberts, 2018. "Generalization in the Tropics – Development Policy, Randomized Controlled Trials, and External Validity," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 34-64.
    4. Andor, Mark A. & Gerster, Andreas & Peters, Jörg & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2020. "Social Norms and Energy Conservation Beyond the US," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Bensch, Gunther & Kluve, Jochen & Stöterau, Jonathan, 2021. "The market-based dissemination of energy-access technologies as a business model for rural entrepreneurs: Evidence from Kenya," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Jaime DE MELO & Marcelo OLARREAGA, 2017. "Trade Related Institutions and Development," Working Papers P199, FERDI.
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    8. Schilpzand, Annemiek & de Jong, Eelke, 2023. "Do market societies undermine civic morality? An empirical investigation into market societies and civic morality across the globe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 39-60.
    9. Michael Rothgang & Bernhard Lageman & Anne-Marie Scholz, 2021. "Why are there so few hard facts about the impact of cluster policies in Germany? A critical review of evaluation studies," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 105-139, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    systematic review; internal validity; external validity; randomized controlled trials;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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