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A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

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  • Mario Mazzocchi
  • Davide Delle Monache
  • Alexandra Lobb

Abstract

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Mazzocchi & Davide Delle Monache & Alexandra Lobb, 2006. "A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(14), pages 1677-1688.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:14:p:1677-1688
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500405862
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe J. Deschamps, 2003. "Time-varying intercepts and equilibrium analysis: an extension of the dynamic almost ideal demand model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 209-236.
    2. L. Fanelli & M. Mazzocchi, 2002. "A cointegrated VECM demand system for meat in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1593-1605.
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    5. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for Homogeneity in Demand Systems When the Regressors Are Nonstationary," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 147-163, April-Jun.
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    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rieger, Jörg & Kuhlgatz, Christian & Anders, Sven, 2016. "Food scandals, media attention and habit persistence among desensitised meat consumers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-92.
    2. Corsi, Alessandro, 2012. "Willingness-to-pay in terms of price: an application to organic beef during and after the “mad cow” crisis," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 92(01), pages 25-46, October.
    3. repec:rae:jourae:v:96:y:2015:i:1:p:187-237 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Beach, Robert H. & Zhen, Chen, 2008. "Consumer Purchasing Behavior in Response to Media Coverage of Avian Influenza," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6750, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Irz, Xavier & Mazzocchi, Mario & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2015. "Research in Food Economics: past trends and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 187-237, March.
    6. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Bessler, David A., 2013. "Impacts of BSE and Avian Influenza on U.S. Meat Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150392, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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