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Climate resilience in rural Zambia: evaluating farmers’ response to El Niño-induced drought

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  • Alfani, Federica
  • Arslan, Aslihan
  • McCarthy, Nancy
  • Cavatassi, Romina
  • Sitko, Nicholas

Abstract

This paper aims at identifying whether and how sustainable land management practices and livelihood diversification strategies have contributed to moderating the impacts of the El Niño-related drought in Zambia. This is done using a specifically designed survey called the El Niño Impact Assessment Survey, which is combined with the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Surveys, as well as high resolution rainfall data at the ward level over 34 years. This unique panel data set allows us to control for the time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity to understand the impacts of shocks like El Niño, which are expected to become more frequent and severe as a result of climate change. We find that maize yields were substantially reduced and that household incomes were only partially protected from the shock thanks to diversification strategies. Mechanical erosion control measures and livestock diversification emerge as the only strategies that provided yield and income benefits under weather shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfani, Federica & Arslan, Aslihan & McCarthy, Nancy & Cavatassi, Romina & Sitko, Nicholas, 2021. "Climate resilience in rural Zambia: evaluating farmers’ response to El Niño-induced drought," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5-6), pages 582-604, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:26:y:2021:i:5-6:p:582-604_9
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    1. McCarthy, Nancy & Brubaker, Josh & Mabiso, Athur & Cavatassi, Romina, "undated". "IFAD Research Series 87: Incorporating the Impact of Climate and Weather Variables in Impact Assessments - An Application to an IFAD Grain Storage Project Implemented in Chad," IFAD Research Series 329498, International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
    2. Jeffrey D. Michler & Anna Josephson & Talip Kilic & Siobhan Murray, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Weather on Agriculture," Papers 2012.11768, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    3. Abyiot Teklu & Belay Simane & Mintewab Bezabih, 2023. "Effect of Climate Smart Agriculture Innovations on Climate Resilience among Smallholder Farmers: Empirical Evidence from the Choke Mountain Watershed of the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-26, February.
    4. Makate, Clifton & Cornelissen, Gerard & Simusokwe, Gibson & Smebye, Andreas Botnen & Handberg, Øyvind Nystad & Phiri, Mirriam & Mulder, Jan & Martinsen, Vegard, 2025. "Less effort for extra benefit? Evaluating the impact of conservation agriculture on resource saving and returns across regions and farming systems in Zambia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. Mahugnon Maxime Obe & Cokou Patrice Kpadé & Alphonse Singbo, 2025. "Identifying and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation innovations among smallholder farmers in developing countries: a literature review and meta-analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-26, March.
    6. Jean-Michel Sourisseau & Jean-François Le Coq, 2025. "Les agricultures familiales face au changement climatique : un potentiel d'adaptation par l'agroécologie," Post-Print hal-05293546, HAL.
    7. Josephson, Anna & Michler, Jeffrey D. & Kilic, Talip & Murray, Siobhan, 2026. "The mismeasure of weather: Using earth observation data for estimation of socioeconomic outcomes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Ahmed, Haseeb & Correa, Juan Sebastian & Sitko, Nicholas J., 2025. "Climate adaptation, perceived resilience, and household wellbeing: Comparative evidence from Kenya and Zambia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Martin C. Parlasca & Christina A. Martini & Maximilian Köster & Marcela Ibañez, 2024. "Aspirations and weather shocks: Evidence from rural Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(6), pages 985-999, November.
    10. Brookes Gray, Harriet & Taraz, Vis & Halliday, Simon D., 2023. "The impact of weather shocks on employment outcomes: evidence from South Africa," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 285-305, June.
    11. Ngoma,Hambulo & Finn,Arden Jeremy & Kabisa,Mulako, 2021. "Climate Shocks, Vulnerability, Resilience and Livelihoods in Rural Zambia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9758, The World Bank.
    12. Nelson B. Villoria, 2026. "Trade frictions and domestic food price stability in the presence of large‐scale climate shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(1), pages 285-308, January.
    13. Makate, Clifton & Hanyani-Mlambo, Benjamine, 2025. "Conservation Agriculture and sustainability of smallholder farms in Zimbabwe: Insights from a nationwide survey," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

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