# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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### 1991

**1002 A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series***by*Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips**1001 Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study***by*Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips**1000 The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips

### 1990

**967 The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models with an Application to External Debt Crisis***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel McFadden**964 A Strategic Market Game with a Mutual Bank with Fractional Reserves and Redemption in Gold (A Continuum of Traders)***by*Martin Shubik & D.P. Tsomocos**963 Default and Bankruptcy in a Multistage Exchange Economy***by*Martin Shubik**962 On the Convex Hull of the Integer Points***by*Antal Balog & Imre Barany**961 A Strategic Market Game of a Finite Economy with a Mutual Bank***by*Martin Shubik & Jingang Zhao**960 Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Axel Borsch-Supan**959 The Price for the Widow's Cruse: Or the Value of an Infinitely Productive Asset***by*Martin Shubik**958 Least Concavity and the Distribution-Free Estimation of Non-Parametric Concave Functions***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**957 Estimation of Multinomial Models Using Weak Monotonicity Assumptions***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**956 The Hybrid Solutions of an n-Person Game***by*Jingang Zhao**955 International Diversification of Social and Private Risk: The US and Japan***by*Stephen S. Golub**954 Inefficiency of Strategy-Proof Allocation Mechanisms in Pure Exchange Economies***by*Lin Zhou**953 Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?***by*Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti**952 Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared***by*Robert J. Shiller & Maxim Boycko & Vladimir Korobov**951 A Functional Central Limit Theorem for Strong Mixing Stochastic Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & David Pollard**950 To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**949 A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**948 Operational Algebra and Regression t-Tests***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**947 Testing Covariance Stationarity Under Moment Condition Failure with an Application to Common Stock Returns***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**946 The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Laszlo Lovasz**945 The Frobenius Problem and Maximal Lattice Free Bodies***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Shallcross, David F.**944 Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis***by*Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews**943 Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**942 An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan**941 Voting by Committees***by*Salvador Barbera & Hugo Sonnenschein & Lin Zhou**940 Generic Uniform Convergence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**939 Financial Integration, Liquidity and Exchange Rates***by*Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini**938 Aggregation and Social Choice: A Mean Voter Theorem***by*Andrew Caplin & Barry Nalebuff**937 Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium***by*Andrew Caplin & Barry Nalebuff**936 A Colored Version of Tverberg's Theorem***by*Imre Barany & D.G. Larman**935 Testing Game Theoretic Models of Price-Fixing Behaviour***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**934 Growth and Distribution: A Neoclassical Kaldor-Robinson Exercise***by*James Tobin

### 1989

**CFP 899 Testing for a Unit Root by Generalized Least Squares Methods in the Time and Frequency Domains***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & In Choi**933 Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt**932 Asymptotics for Linear Processes***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo**931 On the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy***by*James Tobin**930 Mathematical Programming and Economic Theory***by*Herbert E. Scarf**929 Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distribution Theory for IV Estimators and Tests in Partially Identified Structural Equations***by*In Choi & Peter C.B. Phillips**928 Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**927 Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle***by*William D. Nordhaus**925 Additive Interactive Regression Models: Circumvention of the Curse of Dimensionality***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yoon-Jae Whang**924 Risk Analysis in Economics: An Application to University Finances***by*William D. Nordhaus**923 Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior***by*Ray C. Fair**922 Warranties, Durability, and Maintenance: Two Sided Moral Hazard in a Continuous-Time Model***by*Nancy A. Lutz & Philip H. Dybvig**921 Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations***by*Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor**920 Renegotiation and Symmetry in Repeated Games***by*David G. Pearce & Dilip Abreu & Ennio Stacchetti**919 An Introduction to General Equilibrium with Incomplete Asset Markets***by*John Geanakoplos**918 A Nonparametric Maximum Rank Correlation Estimator***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**917 On Integer Points in Polyhedra: A Lower Bound***by*Imre Barany & Roger Howe & Laszlo Lovasz**916 Neighbors of the Origin for Four by Three Matrices***by*David F. Shallcross**915 The Reconciliation of Micro and Macro Economics***by*Martin Shubik**914 Game Theory Without Partitions, and Applications to Speculation and Consensus***by*John Geanakoplos**913 The Capital Asset Pricing Model as a General Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets***by*John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**912 Existence of Walras Equilibrium Without a Price Player of Generalized Game***by*John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey**911 Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**910 Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: III. Testing and Examples***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**909R Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: II. Stochastic Equicontinuity and Nonparametric Kernel Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**908R Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: I. Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**907 An Empirical Process Central Limit Theorem for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**906 Asymptotic Optimality of Generalized C_{L}, Cross-Validation, and Generalized Cross-Validation in Regression with Heteroskedastic Errors***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**905 Market Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A Knightian View***by*Truman F. Bewley**904 Gold, Liquidity and Secured Loans in a Multi-Stage Economy. Part II. Many Durables, Land and Gold***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**903 The Transactions Cost of Money (A Strategic Game Analysis)***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**902 Solving Systems of Simultaneous Equations in Economics***by*John Geanakoplos & Shafer, Wayne**901 Observability and Optimality***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**900 Liquidity and Bankruptcy with Incomplete Markets: Pure Exchange***by*John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey**898R The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**897R Time Series Regression with a Unit Root and Infinite Variance Errors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**896 The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well***by*Ray C. Fair**895 Repeated Trade and the Velocity of Money***by*Martin Shubik & Pradeep Dubey & Siddhartha Sahi**887 A New Proof of Knight's Theorem on the Cauchy Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**886 A Little Magic with the Cauchy Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips

### 1988

**894 Nonparametric Tests of Maximizing Behavior Subject to Nonlinear Sets***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**893 Reflections on Econometric Methodology***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**892 The Interaction of Implicit and Explicit Contracts in Repeated Agency***by*David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**891 The Interaction of Implicit and Explicit Contracts in Repeated Agency***by*Martin Shubik**890 The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets***by*Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case**889 Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Choice and the Threshold-Crossing Models***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**888 The Macroeconomics of Government Finance***by*James Tobin & Michael Haliassos**885 The Power of Commitment***by*John Geanakoplos & Chien-fu Chou**884R Correlated Equilibrium with Generalized Information Structures***by*Geanakoplos & Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel**883 The Shapes of Polyhedra***by*Herbert E. Scarf & R. Kannan & Laszlo Lovasz**882R Error Correction and Long Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**881 Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen**880 Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park**879R Default and Efficiency in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**878 Capital Structure and dividend Irrelevance with Asymmetric Information***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Jaime F. Zender**877R Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**876 The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**875 Information and Timing in Repeated Partnerships***by*David G. Pearce & Dilip Abreu & Paul R. Milgrom**874R Asymptotic Normality of Series Estimators for Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regression Models***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**873 Spanning, Valuation and Options***by*Donald J. Brown & Stephen A. Ross**872 Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**871 Gold, Liquidity and Secured Loans in a Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold as Money***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**870 Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson**869R Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen**868 Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference***by*Truman F. Bewley**867 Warranties as Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard***by*Nancy A. Lutz**866R Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**865 The Characteristic Function of the Dirichlet and Multivariate F Distributions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**864 Common Knowledge of Summary Statistics***by*Adam Brandenburger & John Geanakoplos**863 Generic Inefficiency of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii & J. Dreze**862 Appropriating the Returns from Industrial R&D***by*Richard C. Levin & Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter**861 A Centered Projective Algorithm for Linear Programming***by*Michael J. Todd & Yinyu Ye**860 Nonnegative Wealth, Absence of Arbitrage, and Feasible Consumption Plans***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Chi-fu Huang**859 Increases in Risk Aversion and Portfolio Choice in a Complete Market***by*Philip H. Dybvig**858 Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**857 The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts***by*Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller**775R A Theory of Hierarchies Based on Limited Managerial Attention***by*John Geanakoplos & Paul R. Milgrom

### 1987

**856R VAR Models as Structural Approximations***by*Ray C. Fair**855 Renegotiation-Proof Equilibria: Collective Rationality and Intertemporal Cooperation***by*David G. Pearce**854 A Note on an Optimal Garnishing Rule***by*Martin Shubik & Pradeep Dubey**853 Investor Behavior in the 1987-10 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence***by*Robert J. Shiller**852 Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**851 Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities***by*Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller**850R The Noncooperative Equilibria of a Trading Economy with Complete Markets and Consistent Prices***by*Siddhartha Sahi & Shuntian Yao**849 Inventories, Investment, Inflation and Taxes***by*James Tobin**848 An Aggregative Disequilibrium Model of the U.S. Labour Market***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**847R Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris**846 Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals via Martingale Approximations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**845R Partially Identified Econometric Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**844 Testing Strictly Concave Rationality***by*Rosa L. Matzkin & Marcel K. Richter**843 The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data***by*Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch**842 Bimodal t-Ratios***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**841 Silver and Gold and Liquidity***by*Martin Shubik**840 Joint Distribution Theory for Some Statistics Based on LIML and TSLS***by*Grant H. Hillier**839 Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations***by*Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez**838 Valuation and Optimality in Exchange Economies with a Countable Number of Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Charalambos Aliprantis & Owen Burkinshaw**837 Implementational Issues and Computational Performance Solving Applied General Equilibrium Models with SLCP***by*Thomas Rutherford**836 A Modeling System for Applied General Equilibrium Analysis***by*Thomas Rutherford**835 Knightian Decision Theory, Part II. Intertemporal Problems***by*Truman F. Bewley**834R Equilibria in Exchange Economies with a Countable Number of Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Charalambos Aliprantis & Owen Burkinshaw**833R Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation***by*Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller**832 Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair**831 The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update***by*Ray C. Fair**830 Semiparametric Estimation of Monotonic and Concave Utility Functions: The Discrete Choice Case***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**829 Game Theory. Models of Strategic Behavior and Nuclear Deterrence***by*Martin Shubik**828 Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**827R Distributional Analysis of Portfolio Choice***by*Philip H. Dybvig**826R Inefficient Dynamic Portfolio Strategies or How to Throw Away a Million Dollars in the Stock Market***by*Philip H. Dybvig**825 Sequential Games of Resource Extraction: Existence of Nash Equilibria***by*Rabah Amir**824R Conditional and Unconditional Statistical Independence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**823 Spherical Matrix Distributions and Cauchy Quotients***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**822 Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**821 Supply Shocks in Macroeconomics***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**820 The Future of Social Security: One Economist's Assessment***by*James Tobin**818 Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair**817 Financial Intermediaries***by*James Tobin**816 Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability***by*Robert J. Shiller**815 Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1986

**819R Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**814R A Strategic Market Game with Complete Markets***by*Rabah Amir & Siddhartha Sahi & Martin Shubik**813 International Evidence on the Demand for Money***by*Ray C. Fair**812 The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell**811R Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**810 Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination***by*Ray C. Fair**809R Testing for Cointegration Using Principal Component Measures***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris**808 Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale***by*Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez**807 Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1***by*Truman F. Bewley**806 The Unique Minimal Cash Flow Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**805 A Game Theoretic Approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**804 Enough Commodity Money and the Selection of a Unique Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**803 Temporal Dependence in Limited Dependent Variable Models: Theoretical and Monte-Carlo Results***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**802 Asymptotic Equivalence of OLS and GLS in Regressions with Integrated Regressors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**801 On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**800 Power in Econometric Applications***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**799 Limiting Distributions of the Number of Pure Strategy Nash Equilibria in n-Person Games***by*Imelda Yeung Powers**798 On the Performance of Least Squares in Linear Regression with Undefined Error Means***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**797 Quasirents, Influence and Organization Form***by*Paul R. Milgrom**796 Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**795R Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron**794 Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Pound**793 Resources, Technology, and Development: Will the Table Be Bare When Poor Countries Get There?***by*William D. Nordhaus**792 Two Misspecification Tests for the Simple Switching Regressions Disequilibrium Model***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**791 Toward a Theory of Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring***by*Dilip Abreu & David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**790 Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**789 Defense Economics and Economic Warfare Revisited***by*J. Hoult Verkerke & Martin Shubik**788 Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis***by*Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips**787 Issues Arising in Management and Control of Naval Forces***by*P. Bracken & Martin Shubik**786 Best Median Unbiased Estimation in Linear Regression with Bounded Asymmetric Loss Functions***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Peter C.B. Phillips**785 Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**784 Edgeworth Equilibria in Production Economies***by*Charalambos Aliprantis & Donald J. Brown & Owen Burkinshaw**783 The Share Economy: A Symposium***by*John Andrew & William D. Nordhaus**782R Towards a Unified Asymptotic Theory for Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**781R Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**780 The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications***by*James Tobin**695 The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates Since 1979-10***by*Richard H. Clarida & Benjamin M. Friedman

### 1985

**779 Auction Theory***by*Paul R. Milgrom**778 Walrasian Indeterminacy and Keynesian Macroeconomics***by*John Geanakoplos & Polemarchakis, Heracles M.**777 On Finitely Repeated Games and Pseudo-Nash Equilibria***by*Chien fu Chou & John Geanakoplos**776 Neoclassical Theory in America: J.B. Clark and Fisher***by*James Tobin**774 Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications***by*William D. Nordhaus**773 Comparative Statics and Local Indeterminacy in OLG Economies: An Application of the Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem***by*John Geanakoplos & Donald J. Brown**772R The Term Structure of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation***by*John Y. Campbell & Richard H. Clarida**771 International Lending and Borrowing in a Stochastic Sequence Equilibrium***by*Richard H. Clarida**770R Real Indeterminacy with Financial Assets***by*John Geanakoplos & Andreu Mas-Colell**769 The Balance of Payments Adjustment Mechanism in a Rational Expectations Equilibrium***by*Richard H. Clarida