# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

**Order information:**

Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

**Pricing information:**There is no charge

**For corrections or technical questions regarding this series, please contact (Matthew C. Regan)**

**Series handle:**repec:cwl:cwldpp

**Citations RSS feed:**at CitEc

### Impact factors

- Simple (last 10 years)
- Recursive (10)
- Discounted (10)
- Recursive discounted (10)
- H-Index (10)
- Euclid (10)
- Aggregate (10)

**Access and download statistics**

**Top item:**

- By citations
- By downloads (last 12 months)

### 2004

**1476 Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock**1475 Uniform Limit Theory for Stationary Autoregression***by*Liudas Giraitis & Peter C.B. Phillips**1474 Expansions for Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimators of the Fractional Difference Parameter***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1473 Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods***by*Rustam Ibragimov & Peter C.B. Phillips**1472 Challenges of Trending Time Series Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1471 Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations from a Unit Root***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos**1470 HAC Estimation by Automated Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1469 Automated Discovery in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1468R Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1468 Non-Monotone Liquidity Under-Supply***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1467 Grading Exams: 100, 99, ..., 1 or A, B, C? Incentives in Games of Status***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1466R Competition, Consumer Welfare and Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1466 The Social Cost of Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1465 Time-inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY***by*Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman**1464 An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence***by*Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang**1463R Monopoly Pricing of Experience Goods***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1462 Racism and Redistribution in the United States: A Solution to the Problem of American Exceptionalism***by*Woojin Lee & John E. Roemer**1461 Radical Financial Innovation***by*Robert J. Shiller**1460 Gold, Fiat and Credit. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit, Part II***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1459 Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth***by*Robert J. Shiller**1458 Neighborhood Complexes and Generating Functions for Affine Semigroups***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Kevin M. Woods**1457 Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement***by*William D. Nordhaus**1456 Three Strikes and You're Out: Reply to Cooper and Willis***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1455 A Consumable Money. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit: Part I***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1454 A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability***by*Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang**1453 Smoothed Empirical Likelihood Methods for Quantile Regression Models***by*Yoon-Jae Whang**1452 Using Subspace Methods for Estimating ARMA Models for Multivariate Time Series with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Innovations***by*Dietmar Bauer**1451 Purification in the Infinitely-Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma***by*V. Bhaskar & George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris

### 2003

**1395R2 Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1450 Does Prison Harden Inmates? A Discontinuity-based Approach***by*M. Keith Chen & Jesse M. Shapiro**1449 Dollar Denominated Debt and Optimal Security Design***by*John Geanakoplos & Felix Kubler**1448 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements and the Banzhaf Index***by*Thomas Quint**1447 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements in Simple Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1446 A Behavioral Model of Bargaining with Endogenous Types***by*Dilip Abreu & David Pearce**1445 Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions***by*Philip A. Haile & Han Hong & Matthew Shum**1444 Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?***by*Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher**1443 A Double Auction Market: Teaching, Experiment and Theory***by*Martin Shubik**1442 The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America***by*Robert J. Shiller**1441R Optimal Provision of Multiple Excludable Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1441 An Efficiency Rationale for Bundling of Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1440 To Bundle or Not to Bundle***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1439 The Edgeworth, Cournot and Walrasian Cores of an Economy***by*Martin Shubik**1438 Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1437 Long Run Variance Estimation Using Steep Origin Kernels without Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1436 Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation***by*Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young**1435 Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron & Peter C.B. Phillips**1434 Liquidity Black Holes***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1433R Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1433 Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1432 On the Empirical Content of Quantal Response Equilibrium***by*Philip A. Haile & Ali Hortacsu & Grigory Kosenok**1431 Uniqueness of Equilibrium in the Multi-Country Ricardo Model***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Wilson, Charles A. Wilson**1430 Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1429 The Ideal Inflation Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest in an Overlapping Generations World***by*John Geanakoplos**1428 Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1427R Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1427 Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1426R The Computation of Counterfactual Equilibria in Homothetic Walrasian Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1426 Indeterminacy, Nonparametric Calibration and Counterfactual Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1425 Fundamental R&D Spillovers and the Internationalization of a FirmÃŒs Research Activities***by*Bernard Franck & Robert Owen**1424 The Harmonic Fisher Equation and the Inflationary Bias of Real Uncertainty***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & John Geanakoplos**1423 Multidimensional Private Value Auctions***by*Hanming Fang & Stephen Morris**1422 Morale Hazard***by*Hanming Fang & Giuseppe Moscarini**1421R Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1421 Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1420 Strategic Freedom, Constraint, and Symmetry in One-period Markets with Cash and Credit Payment***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1419 Structure, Clearinghouses and Symmetry***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1418 Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction***by*John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1417 Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments***by*Chao, John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1416 On Houseswapping, the Strict Core, Segmentation, and Linear Programming***by*Thomas Quint & Jun Wake**1415 Two New Proofs of Afriat's Theorem***by*Anna Fostel & Herbert E. Scarf & Michael J. Todd**1414 On Local and Network Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1413 Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance: Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales***by*Michael R. Powers & David M. Schizer & Martin Shubik**1412 Dynamic Price Competition***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1411 Committee Design in the Presence of Communication***by*Dino Gerardi & Leeat Yariv**1410 Indeterminacy of Citizen-Candidate Equilibrium***by*John E. Roemer**1409 Political Equilibrium With Private or/and Public Campaign Finance: A Comparison Of Institutions***by*John E. Roemer**1408 Eclectic Distributional Ethics***by*John E. Roemer**1407 Consistent HAC Estimation and Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels with No Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1406 Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets***by*Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1405 Communication and Monetary Policy***by*Jeffrey D. Amado & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1404 End-of-Sample Cointegration Breakdown Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Jae-Young Kim**1403 Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals***by*Galina Hale**1402 Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1401 Coordination, Communication and Common Knowledge: A Retrospective on Electronic Mail Game***by*Stephen Morris**1400 Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1399R Rationalizing and Curve-Fitting Demand Data with Quasilinear Utilities***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1399 The Strong Law of Demand***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1398 The Elusive Empirical Shadow of Growth Convergence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1397 Laws and Limits of Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1396 Who Refers to Whom: A Study of Research References and the Relationship between Research Reports and Final Publication***by*Samuel McCarthy & Martin Shubik & Jianfeng Yu**1395R Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1395 Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models***by*Donald J. Brown & Marten H. Wegkamp**1394 Generalized Potentials and Robust Sets of Equilibria***by*Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1393 Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1392 Jackknifing Bond Option Prices***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu**1391 Fractional Brownian Motion as a Differentiable Generalized Gaussian Process***by*Victoria Zinde-Walsh & Peter C.B. Phillips**1390 GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1389 Monetary Equilibrium with Missing Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos

### 2002

**1388 Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s***by*Ray C. Fair**1387 The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq***by*William D. Nordhaus**1386 One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market***by*Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller**1385 From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance***by*Robert J. Shiller**1384 Adaptive Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yixiao Sun**1383 Fairness, Reciprocity, and Wage Rigidity***by*Truman F. Bewley**1382 Risk Aversion and Stock Prices***by*Ray C. Fair**1381 College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency***by*Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster**1380R Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1380 Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1379 The Value of Benchmarking***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege**1378 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Long-memory Gaussian Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1377 Best Response Equivalence***by*Morris, Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1376 Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market***by*George Hall & John Rust**1375 More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors***by*Zhijie Xiao & Oliver Linton & Raymond J. Carroll & E. Mammen**1374 Error Bounds and Asymptotic Expansions for Toeplitz Product Functionals of Unbounded Spectra***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1373 The KPSS Test with Seasonal Dummies***by*Sainan Jin & Peter C.B. Phillips**1372 Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems***by*Steven Berry & Oliver Linton & Ariel Pakes**1371 Unmediated Communication in Games with Complete and Incomplete Information***by*Dino Gerardi**1370 The Block-block Bootstrap: Improved Asymptotic Refinements***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1369 End-of-Sample Instability Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1368 The Mildest Recession: Outputs, Profits, and Stock Prices as the U.S. Emerges from the 2001 Recession***by*William D. Nordhaus**1367 Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1366 Nonlinear Log-Periodogram Regression for Perturbed Fractional Processes***by*Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips**1365 Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1364 Nonstationary Discrete Choice***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1363 Efficient Regression in Time Series Partial Linear Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Binbin Guo & Zhijie Xiao**1362 Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1361 Valid Edgeworth Expansions for the Whittle Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stationary Long-memory Gaussian Time Series***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1360 From Nash to Walras via Shapley-Shubik***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1359 Partially Linear Models with Unit Roots***by*Ted Juhl & Zhijie Xiao**1358 Competition In or For the Field: Which Is Better?***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1357 Macroeconomic Strategy in Wartime***by*James Tobin**1356 Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach***by*Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Whang, Yoon-Jae**1355 The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards***by*William D. Nordhaus**1354 Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1353 How to Auction an Essential Facility When Underhand Integration Is Possible***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1352 I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency***by*Leeat Yariv**1351 Valid Asymptotic Expansions for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameter of a Stationary, Gaussian, Strongly Dependent Process***by*Offer Lieberman & Judith Rousseau & David M. Zucker**1350 An Optimal Fair Job Assignment Problem***by*Zaifu Yang**1031R Is Gold an Efficient Store of Value?***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik

### 2001

**1346R2 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1316R2 Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1304R5 Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**1349 Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate GARCH Processes***by*F. Comte & Offer Lieberman**1348 Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Fractional Guassian Processes***by*Offer Lieberman**1347 On Fair Allocations and Indivisibilities***by*Ning Sun & Zaifu Yang**1346 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1345 Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**1344 Believe and Let Believe: Axiomatic Foundations for Belief Dependent Utility Functionals***by*Leeat Yariv**1343 Money and the Monetization of Credit***by*Martin Shubik**1342 A Derivation of Expected Utility Maximization in the Context of a Game***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1341 Subjective Distributions***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1340 Cognitive Foundations of Probability***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1339 Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1338 The Optimal Concentration of Creditors***by*Ivo Welch & Bris, Arturo**1337 Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market***by*Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes**1336 Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities***by*David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner**1335 Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market***by*Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller**1334 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Markov Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1333 Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & Geanakoplos, John**1332 Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models***by*Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips**1331 Nonlinear Instrumental Variable Estimation of an Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park & Yoosoon Chang**1330 Bootstrapping Spurious Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1329 A CUSUM Test for Cointegration Using Regression Residuals***by*Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1328 Egalitarianism against the Veil of Ignorance***by*John E. Roemer**1327 Value and Politics***by*John E. Roemer**1326 What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children,..***by*John E. Roemer & Roberto Veneziani**1325 The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited***by*Ivo Welch**1324 The Progress of Computing***by*William D. Nordhaus**1323 Information Structures in Optimal Auctions***by*Dirk Bergemann & Martin Pesendorfer**1322 Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and Social Choice***by*Michael Mandler**1321 Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War***by*George J. Hall**1320 Accessible Pareto-Improvements: Using Market Information to Reform Inefficiencies***by*Michael Mandler**1319 If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets***by*Larry Blume & David Easley**1318 Perfectly Fair Allocations with Indivisibilities***by*Ning Sun & Zaifu Yang**1317 A Practical Competitive Market Model for Indivisible Commo***by*Zaifu Yang**1316 Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1315 Insurance Contracts Designed by Competitive Pooling***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1314R Social Security Investment in Equities***by*Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos**1313 International Finance in General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos & Dimitri P. Tsomocos**1312 The CNBC Effect: Welfare Effects of Public Information***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1311 Nonparametric Estimation of a Multifactor Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model: An Integrated Approach***by*Andrew Jeffrey & Linton, Oliver Linton & Thong Nguyen & Peter C.B. Phillips**1310 Regression with Slowly Varying Regressors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1309 Gaussian Estimation of Continuous Time Models of the Short Term Interest Rate***by*Jun Yu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1308 Second Order Expansions for the Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Fractional Difference Parameter***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1307 On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs***by*Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch**1306 An Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Amnesia, Inertia, and Impulsiveness***by*David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch**1305 Signalling and Default: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1304 Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**1303 Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion***by*Robert J. Shiller**1302 Entry and Vertical Differentiation***by*Dirk Bergemann & Valimaki Juuso**1301 Fiscal Policy: Its Macroeconomics in Perspective***by*James Tobin**1300 On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks***by*Ray C. Fair**1299 Middle Men Versus Market Makers: A Theory of Competitive Exchange***by*John Rust & George Hall**1298 Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy***by*Ray C. Fair**1297 Monotone Preferences over Information***by*Juan Dubra & Echenique, Federico**1296 Measurability Is Not about Information***by*Juan Dubra & Federico Echenique**1295 Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**1294 Expected Utility Theory without the Completeness Axiom***by*Juan Dubra & Fabio Maacheroni & Efe A. Ok**1293 Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yixiao Sun**1292R The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege**1292 The Financing of Innovation: Learning and Stopping***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege**1291 Electoral Rules and the Emergence of New Issue Dimensions***by*Estelle Cantillon**1290 A Computational Analysis of the Core of a Trading Economy with Three Competitive Equilibria and a Finite Number of Traders***by*Martin Shubik & Alok Kumar**1289 The Uses of Teaching Games in Game Theory Classes and Some Experimental Games***by*Martin Shubik**1288 Weighted Minimum Mean-Square Distance from Independence Estimation***by*Donald J. Brown & Marten H. Wegkamp**1287 Multifractal Products of Cylindrical Rules***by*Julien Barral & Benoit B. Mandelbrot**1281R Does Democracy Engender Justice?***by*John E. Roemer

### 2000

**1286 New Data and Output Concepts for Understanding Productivity Trends***by*William D. Nordhaus**1285 A Graphical Analysis of Some Basic Results in Social Choice***by*Estelle Cantillon & Antonio Rangel**1284 Productivity Growth and the New Economy***by*William D. Nordhaus**1283 Structural Change in Tail Behavior and the Asian Financial Crisis***by*Carmela E. Quintos & Zhenhong Fan & Peter C.B. Phillips**1282 Alternative Methods for Measuring Productivity Growth***by*William D. Nordhaus**1280 Unilateral Deviation with Perfect Information***by*Pradeep Dubey & Ori Haimanko**1279 The Effect of Bidders' Asymmetries on Expected Revenue in Auctions***by*Estelle Cantillon**1278 Forecasting New Zealand's Real GDP***by*Aaron F. Schiff & Peter C.B. Phillips**1277 Entry and Vertical Differentiation***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1276 Investment Incentives in Procurement Auctions***by*Leandro Arozamena & Estelle Cantillon**1275R Global Games: Theory and Applications***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1275 Global Games: Theory and Applications***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1274 GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1273 Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders***by*Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Shin, Hyun**1272 How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891***by*William C. Brainard & Herbert E. Scarf**1271R Faulty Communication***by*Stephen Morris**1271 Faulty Communication***by*Morris, Stephen**1270 Optimal Inventory Policies When Sales Are Discretionary***by*Herbert E. Scarf**1269 Equivalence of the Higher-order Asymptotic Efficiency of k-step and Extremum Statistics***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1267 Pooled Log Periodogram Regression***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1266 Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1265 Modified Local Whittle Estimation of the Memory Parameter in the Nonstationary Case***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1264 Trending Time Series and Macroeconomic Activity: Some Present and Future Challenges***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1263 A Bias-Reduced Log-Periodogram Regression Estimator for the Long-Memory Parameter***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1262 A Stochastic Overlapping Generations Economy with Inheritance***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1261 Information and the Existence of Stationary Markovian Equilibrium***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1260 Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1259 Social Security Investment in Equities in an Economy with Short-Term Production and Land***by*Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos**1258 Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules***by*Ray C. Fair**1257R Inside and Outside Money, Gains to Trade, and IS-LM***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1257 Inside and Outside Money, Gains to Trade, and IS-LM***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1256 Cartoons of the Variation of Financial Prices and of Brownian Motions in Multifractal Time***by*Benoit B. Mandelbrot**1255 Competitive Prizes: When Less Scrutiny Induces More Effort***by*Pradeep Dubey & Chien-wei Wu**1254 Optimal Scrutiny in Multi-Period Promotion Tournaments***by*Pradeep Dubey & Ori Haimanko**1253 The Theory of Money***by*Martin Shubik**1252 Asymptotics in Minimum Distance from Independence Estimation***by*Donald J. Brown & Marten H. Wegkamp**1251 Bootstrap Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency***by*Yoosoon Chang**1250 On the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions for BC_a Confidence Intervals***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Moshe Y. Buchinsky**1249 Bargaining and Markets: Complexity and the Walrasian Outcome***by*Hamid Sabourian**1248 Information Acquisition and Efficient Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Vaimaki**1247 Default in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik

### 1999

**1246 Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends***by*Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1245 Nonlinear Econometric Models with Cointegrated and Deterministically Trending Regressors***by*Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips**1244 Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1243 Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1242 Political Correctness***by*Stephen Morris**1241R Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1241 Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1240 Stationary Multi Choice Bandit Problems***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Vaimaki**1239 World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities***by*Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller**1238 Survey of Multifractality in Finance***by*Benoit Mandelbrot**1237 Strategic Buyers and Privately Observed Prices***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1236 Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring***by*George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris**1235 Contractual Intermediaries***by*Garey Ramey & Joel Watson**1234 On Minsky's Agenda for Reform***by*James Tobin**1233 Consistent Model and Moment Selection Criteria for GMM Estimation with Applications to Dynamic Panel Data Models***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Biao Lu**1232 Competition for Goods in Buyer-Seller Networks***by*Rachel E. Kranton & Deborah F. Minehart**1231 Vertical Integration: Networks, and Markets***by*Rachel E. Kranton & Deborah F. Minehart**1230R Higher-Order Improvements of a Computationally Attractive-Step Bootstrap for Extremum Estimators***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1230 Higher-Order Improvements of a Computationally Attractive-Step Bootstrap for Extremum Estimators***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1229 Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1228 An Empirical Model of Inventory Investment by Durable Commodity Intermediaries***by*George J. Hall & John Rust**1227 Toward a Theory of Reinsurance and Retrocession***by*Michael R. Powers & Martin Shubik**1226 Entry and Innovation in Vertically Differentiated Markets***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1225 Conditioning Institutions and Renegotiation***by*Garey Ramey & Joel Watson**1224 Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data***by*Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1223 Nonstationary Binary Choice***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**1222 Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon**1221 Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview of Some Recent Developments***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon**1220 Empirical Limits for Time Series Econometric Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger**1219 Descriptive Econometrics for Nonstationary Time Series with Empirical Illustrations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1218 Starting Small in an Unfamiliar Environment***by*James E. Rauch & Joel Watson**1217 Starting Small and Commitment***by*Joel Watson**1216 Contract-Theoretic Approaches to Wages and Displacement***by*Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson**1215 Liquidity Flows and Fragility of Business Enterprises***by*Wouter J. den Haan & Garey Ramey & Joel Watson**1214 Experimentation in Markets***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1213 The Hierarchical Approach to Modeling Knowledge and Common Knowledge***by*Ronald Fagin & John Geanakoplos & Joseph Y. Halpern & Moshe Y. Vardi**1212 Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence***by*Robert J. Shiller**1211 Rationalizable Trade***by*Stephen Morris & Skiadas Costis**1210 Pareto Improving Price Regulation When the Asset Market Is Incomplete***by*P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**1209 Work Motivation***by*Truman F. Bewley**1208 Preference for Information and Dynamic Consistency***by*Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak**1207 Decomposable Choice Under Uncertainty***by*Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak

### 1998

**1206 Dynamic Common Agency***by*Dirk & Juuso Valimaki**1205 Estimating Yield Curves by Kernel Smoothing Methods***by*Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen & C. Tanggaard**1204 A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1203 Cheap Talk and Co-ordination with Payoff Uncertainty***by*Sandeep Baliga & Stephen Morris**1202 Fiat Money and the Efficient Financing of the Float, Production and Consumption. Part I: The Float***by*Martin Shubik**1201 Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol***by*William D. Nordhaus & Joseph G. Boyer**1200 The Health of Nations: Irving Fisher and the Contribution of Improved Longevity to Living Standards***by*William D. Nordhaus**1199 Price Competition for an Informed Buyer***by*Giuseppe Moscarini & Marco Ottaviani**1198 Jeffreys Prior Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model in the Case with n+1 Endogenous Variables***by*John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1197 Rissanen's Theorem and Econometric Time Series***by*Werner Ploberger & Peter C.B. Phillips**1196 New Unit Root Asymptotics in the Presence of Deterministic Trends***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1195 Finance Applications of Game Theory***by*Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris**1194 Would a Privatized Social Security System Really Pay a Higher Rate of Return?***by*John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes**1193 Social Security Money's Worth***by*John Geanakoplos & Olivia S. Mitchell & Stephen P. Zeldes**1192 Higher Order Approximations for Wald Statistics in Cointegrating Regressions***by*Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1191 How to Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon & Zhijie Xiao**1190 Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series***by*Joon Y. Park & Peter C.B. Phillips**1189 A Primer on Unit Root Testing***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao**1188 Financial Globalization: Can National Currencies Survive?***by*James Tobin**1187 Monetary Policy: Recent Theory and Practice***by*James Tobin**1186 Nonparametric Censored Regression***by*Arthur Lewbel & Linton, Oliver Linton**1185 Social Security and Institutions for Intergenerational, Intragenerational and International Risk Sharing***by*Robert J. Shiller**1184 Game Theory, Complexity and Simplicity. Part III: Critique and Prospective***by*Martin Shubik**1183 A Strategic Market Game with Active Bankruptcy***by*John Geanakoplos & Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1182 Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**1181 Nonstationary Density Estimation and Kernel Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**1180 Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1179 Designing Indexed Units of Account***by*Robert J. Shiller**1178 On the Skiadas 'Conditional Preference Approach' to Choice Under Uncertainty***by*Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak**1177 Moral Hazard in Home Equity Conversion***by*Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss**1176 Wald Revisited: The Optimal Level of Experimentation***by*Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith**1175 Estimation of Nonparametric Functions in Simultaneous Equations Models, with an Application to Consumer Demand***by*Donald J. Brown & Rosa L. Matzkin**1174 Some Simple Games for Teaching and Research. Part 1: Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik**1173 The Equivalence of the Dekel-Fudenberg Iterative Procedure and Weakly Perfect Rationalizability***by*P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Vincent J. Vannetelbosch**1172 Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System***by*Robert J. Shiller**1171 Indexed Units of Account: Theory and Assessment of Historical Experience***by*Robert J. Shiller**1170 Uniqueness, Stability, and Comparative Statics in Rationalizable Walrasian Markets***by*Donald J. Brown & Chris Shannon

### 1997

**1169 Non-Convex Costs and Capital Utilization: A Study of Production Scheduling at Automobile Assembly Plants***by*George J. Hall**1168 Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations***by*Ray C. Fair**1167 Why Not Cut Pay?***by*Truman F. Bewley**1166 Multifractality of Deutschemark/US Dollar Exchange Rates***by*Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet & Benoit Mandelbrot**1165 Large Deviations and the Distribution of Price Changes***by*Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher & Benoit Mandelbrot**1164 A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns***by*Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet**1163 Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data***by*Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips**1162 Regressions for Partially Identified, Cointegrated Simultaneous Equations***by*In Choi & Peter C.B. Phillips**1161 An ADF Coefficient Test for a Unit Root in ARMA Models of Unknown Order with Empirical Applications to the U.S. Economy***by*Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1160 The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions***by*Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen**1159 The Experiment in Applied Econometrics***by*James Tobin**1158 A Model of a Predatory State***by*Boaz Moselle & Ben Polak**1157 A Simple Counterexample to the Bootstrap***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1156 A Stochastic Infinite-Horizon Economy with Secured Lending, or Unsecured Lending and Bankruptcy***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1155 Model Selection in Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Processes with Reduced Rank Structure***by*John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1154 The Significance of the Market Portfolio***by*Stefano G. Athanasoulis & Robert J. Shiller**1153 Estimation When a Parameter Is on a Boundary: Theory and Applications***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1152 Beyond the CPI: An Augmented Cost of Living Index (ACOLI)***by*William D. Nordhaus**1151 Second Order Approximation in a Linear Regression with Heteroskedasticity for Unknown Form***by*Oliver Linton**1150 Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate***by*James Tobin**1149 Can We Grow Faster?***by*James Tobin**1148 Some Higher Order Theory for a Consistent Nonparametric Model Specification Test***by*Yanqin Fan & Oliver Linton**1147 Asset Markets and Investment Decisions***by*A. De Waegenaere & Heracles M. Polemarchakis & L. Ventura**1146R Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1145 Expanding the Scope of Individual Risk Management: Moral Hazard and Other Behavioral Considerations***by*Robert J. Shiller**1144 Stochastic Algorithms for Dynamic Models: Markov Perfect Equilibrium, and the 'Curse' of Dimensionality***by*Ariel Pakes & Paul McGuire**1141R On the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions for Bootstrap Standard Errors, Confidence Intervals, and Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Moshe Buchinsky**1130R The Asymptotic Distribution of Nonparametric Estimates of the Lyapunov Exponent for Stochastic Time Series***by*Yoon-Jae Whang & Oliver Linton**1126R Incomplete Derivative Markets and Portfolio Insurance***by*Charalambos Aliprantis & Donald J. Brown & Werner, J.**1097 World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities***by*Robert J. Shiller & Stefano G. Athanasoulis

### 1996

**1131R3 Nash and Walras Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1123R3 Three Brief Proofs of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem***by*John Geanakoplos**1143 Promises Promises***by*John Geanakoplos**1142 The Generalized War of Attrition***by*Jeremy I. Bulow & Paul Klemperer**1140 Conditional Independence Restrictions: Testing and Estimation***by*Oliver Linton & Pedro Gozalo**1139 Hyperfinite Asset Pricing Theory***by*M. Ali Khan & Yeneng Sun**1138 Market Diffusion with Two-Sided Learning***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1137 Bayesian Posterior Distributions in Limited Information Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model Using the Jeffreys Prior***by*John C. Chao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1136 Prices, Asset Markets and Indeterminacy***by*Heracles M. Polemarchakis & P. Siconolfi**1135 Spurious Regression Unmasked***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1134 Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee**1133 Exchange and Optimality***by*S. Ghosal & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**1132 Price Variations in a Stock Market with Many Agents***by*P. Bak & M. Paczuski & Martin Shubik**1129 Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Prices***by*Ray C. Fair**1128 The Hangman's Paradox and Newcomb's Paradox as Psychological Games***by*John Geanakoplos**1127 Matrices with Identical Sets of Neighbors***by*Imre Barany & Herbert E. Scarf**1125 A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**1124 Tests of Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Serial Correlation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Liu, Xuemei Liu & Werner Ploberger**1122 Market Experimentation and Pricing***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1121 Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship***by*Ray C. Fair**1120 A Stopping Rule for the Computation of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1119 Semiparametric Estimation of a Sample Selection Model***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcia A. Schafgans**1118 An Asymptotic Expansion in the Garch(1,1) Model***by*Oliver Linton**1117 What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model***by*William D. Nordhaus & David Popp**1116 Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24***by*Ray C. Fair & Diane J. Macunovich**1115 Why Do People Dislike Inflation?***by*Robert J. Shiller**1114 Preference for Information***by*Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii & Ben Polak**1113 Learning and Strategic Pricing***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1112 Time and Money***by*Martin Shubik**1111R A Conditional Kolmogorov Test***by*Donald W.K. Andrews

### 1995

**1110 Labor Income Indices Designed for Use in Contracts Promoting Income Risk Management***by*Robert J. Shiller & Ryan Schneider**1109 Testable Restrictions on the Equilibrium Manifold***by*Donald J. Brown & Rosa L. Matzkin**1108 Evaluating the Probability of Failure of a Banking Firm***by*Moshe Buchinsky & Oved Yosha**1107 Information Externalities, Share-Price Based Incentives and Managerial Behaviour***by*Simon Grant & Stephen King & Ben Polak**1106 Testing Additivity in Generalized Nonparametric Regression Models***by*Oliver Linton & Pedro Gozalo**1105 Adaptive Testing in ARCH Models***by*Oliver Linton & Douglas G. Steigerwald**1104 Unit Root Tests***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1103 Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1102 Impulse Response and Forecast Error Variance Asymptotics in Nonstationary VAR's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1101 How Should We Measure Sustainable Income?***by*William D. Nordhaus**1100 Banks versus Bonds: A Simple Theory of Comparative Financial Institutions***by*Sandeep Baliga & Ben Polak**1099 A Strategic Market Game with Secured Lending***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1098 Mortgage Default Risk and Real Estate Prices: The Use of Index-Based Futures and Options in Real Estate***by*Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case & Allan N. Weiss**1096 Quantile Regression Model with Unknown Censoring Point***by*Moshe Buchinsky & Jinyong Hahn**1095 A Bound on the Number of Nash Equilibria in a Coordination Game***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1094 Dumb Bugs and Bright Noncooperative Players: Games, Context and Behavior***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik & Dickey Yan**1093 An Overview of the General Theory***by*James Tobin**1092 Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior***by*Robert J. Shiller**1091 Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules***by*Ray C. Fair & E. Philip Howrey**1090 Unemployment and Liquidity Constraints***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides

### 1994

**1089 On the Number of Nash Equilibria in a Bimatrix Game***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1088 A Model of Migration***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1087 The Topological Structure of Maximal Lattice Free Convex Bodies: The General Case***by*Imre Barany & Herbert E. Scarf & David F. Shallcross**1086 Edgeworth Approximation for MINPIN Estimators in Semiparametric Regression Models***by*Oliver Linton**1085 Error Bands for Impulse Responses***by*Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha**1084 The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update***by*Ray C. Fair**1083 Model Determination and Macroeconomic Activity***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1082 Fully Modified IV, GIVE and GMM Estimation with Possibly Non-Stationary Regressions and Instruments***by*Yuichi Kitamura & Peter C.B. Phillips**1081 Nonstationary Time Series and Cointegration: Recent Books and Themes for the Future***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1080 Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland & Patrick C. McMahon**1079 Locational Competition and the Environment: Should Countries Harmonize Their Environmental Policies?***by*William D. Nordhaus**1078 Do Real Output and Real Wage Measures Capture Reality? The History of Lighting Suggests Not***by*William D. Nordhaus**1077 Testing for Serial Correlation Against an ARMA(1,1) Process***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger**1076 Insurance Market Games: Scale Effects and Public Policy***by*Michael R. Powers & Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**1075 Local Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation: Using Parametric Information Nonparametrically***by*Pedro Gozalo & Oliver Linton**1074 Home Equity Insurance***by*Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss**1073 Health Care Reform as Seen by a General Economist***by*James Tobin**1072 Financing Trade and the Price Level: Problems with the Description of Markets, Expectations, Money and Credit***by*Martin Shubik**1071 Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?***by*Ray C. Fair**1070 Ponzi Finance, Government Solvency and the Redundancy or Usefulness of Public Debt***by*Willem H. Buiter & K.M. Kletzer**1069 Applied Nonparametric Methods***by*Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton**1068 The Allocation of Resources in the Presence of Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**1067 Marching to Different Drummers: Coordination and Independence in Monetary and Fiscal Policies***by*William D. Nordhaus**1066 A Limit Theorem for a Smooth Class of Semiparametric Estimators***by*Ariel Pakes & Steven Olley**1060R Hypothesis Testing with a Restricted Parameter Space***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1021R Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities: Theoretical and Computational Results***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel McFadden & Paul A. Ruud

### 1993

**1065 Second Order Approximation in the Partially Linear Regression Model***by*Oliver Linton**1064 Robust Nonstationary Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1063 Macroeconomic Shocks in an Aggregative Disequilibrium Model***by*Hajivassiliou**1062 Common Knowledge***by*John Geanakoplos**1061 The Natural Rate as New Classical Macroeconomics -- For Rod Cross, The Natural Rate Hypothesis 25 Years On***by*James Tobin**1059 Empirical Process Methods in Econometrics***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1058 Admissibility of the Likelihood Ratio Test When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present OnlyUnder the Alternative***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger**1057 A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries***by*Hajivassiliou**1056 The Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**1055 Forward Exchange Market Unbiasedness: The Case of the Australian Dollar Since 1984***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & James W. McFarland**1054 Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models***by*Oliver Linton**1053 Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & C. John McDermott**1052 On the Sources and Significance of Interindustry Differences in Technological Opportunities***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard C. Levin & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter**1051 Classical Estimation Methods for LDV Models Using Simulation***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Paul A. Ruud**1050 The Money Rate of Interest and the Influence of Assets in a Multistage Economy with Gold or Paper Money: Part II***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**1049 Simulating Normal Rectangle Probabilities and Their Derivatives: The Effects of Vectorization***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**1048 Aggregate Income Risks and Hedging Mechanisms***by*Robert J. Shiller**1047 Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1046 The Money Rate of Interest and the Influence of Assets in a Multistage Economy with Gold or Paper Money: Part I***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**1045 Measuring the Impact of Global Warming in Agriculture***by*Robert Mendelsohn & William D. Nordhaus & Daigee Shaw**1044 Behavioral Heterogeneity and Cournot Oligopoly Equilibrium***by*Jean-Michel Grandmont**1043 A Strategic Market Game with Seigniorage Costs of Fiat Money***by*Martin Shubik & D.P. Tsomocos**1042 An Old Keynesian Counterattacks***by*James Tobin**1030R Poverty in Relation to Macroeconomic Trends, Cycles, and Policies***by*James Tobin

### 1992

**1041 An Alternative Theory of Firm and Industry Dynamics***by*Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes**1040 Hyper-Consistent Estimation of a Unit Root in Time Series Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1039 Some Exact Distribution Theory for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1038 Time Series Modeling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: Concepts, Illustrations and Asymptotics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger**1037 Some Dynamics of a Strategic Market Game with a Large Number of Agents***by*John H. Miller & Martin Shubik**1036 Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures***by*Robert J. Shiller**1035 The Large Sample Correspondence Between Classical Hypothesis Tests and Bayesian Posterior Odds Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1034 A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model***by*Christopher A. Sims**1033 Construction of Stationary Markov Equilibria in a Strategic Market Game***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1032 The Complex of Maximal Lattice Free Simplices***by*Imre Barany & Roger Howe & Herbert E. Scarf**1029 Tjalling Charles Koopmans (August 28, 1910-February 26, 1985)***by*Herbert E. Scarf**1028 On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle***by*Eric Ghysels**1027 Christmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery***by*Eric Ghysels**1026 Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic and Financial Time Series***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Hong-Yuan Chen**1025 Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1024 Bayes Models and Forecasts of Australian Macroeconomic Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1023 Bayesian Model Selection and Prediction with Empirical Applications***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1022 Expectations Driven Nonlinear Business Cycles***by*Jean-Michel Grandmont**1020 An Introduction to Econometric Applications of Functional Limit Theory for Dependent Random Variables***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1019 Rolling the 'Dice': An Optimal Transition Path for Controlling Greenhouse Gases***by*William D. Nordhaus**1018 A Note on the Dual Approach to the Existence and Characterization of Optimal Consumption Decisions Under Uncertainty and Liquidity Constraints***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Yannis M. Ioannides**1017 Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger**1016 Optimal Changepoint Tests for Normal Linear Regression***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Inpyo Lee & Werner Ploberger**1015 Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger**1014 Transactions Loans, Intertemporal Loans, Variable Velocity, the Rates of Interest and Commodity Money: Part 1. Transactions Loans***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**1013 Money (for New Palgrave Money and Finance)***by*James Tobin**1012 Expanding the Scope of Expectations Data Collection: The U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets***by*Robert J. Shiller & Fumiko Kon-Ya & Yoshiro Tsutsui**1011 Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy***by*Christopher A. Sims**1010 The Impact of Climate on Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach***by*Robert Mendelsohn & William D. Nordhaus & Shaw, Daigee**1009 The 'DICE' Model: Background and Structure of a Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy Model of the Economics of Global Warming***by*William D. Nordhaus**1008 Empirical Implications of Arbitrage-Free Asset Markets***by*S. Maheswaran & Christopher A. Sims**1005 Estimates of the Bias of Lagged Dependent Variable Coefficient Estimates in Macroeconomic Equations***by*Ray C. Fair**1004 The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1991

**1007 Simulation Estimation Methods for Limited Dependent Variable Models***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**1006 Index-Based Futures and Options Markets in Real Estate***by*Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Allan N. Weiss**1003 Unidentified Components in Reduced Rank Regression Estimation of ECM's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1002 A Bayesian Analysis of Trend Determination in Economic Time Series***by*Eric Zivot & Peter C.B. Phillips**1001 Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study***by*Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips**1000 The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**999 The Tail Behavior of Maximum Likelihood Estimates of Cointegrating Coefficients in Error Correction Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**998 Unit Roots***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**997 A Reexamination of the Consumption Function Using Frequency Domain Regressors***by*Dean Corbea & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips**996 Classification of Two-Person Ordinal Bimatrix Games***by*Imre Barany & J. Lee & Martin Shubik**995 Preface to Eduard Marz, Schumpeter, English Translation, Yale University Press***by*James Tobin**994R Price Flexibility and Output Stability: An Old Keynesian View***by*James Tobin**993 International Currency Regimes, Capital Mobility, and Macroeconomic Policy***by*James Tobin**992 Commentary on Irving Fisher, The Nature of Capital and Income (1906)***by*James Tobin**991 On the Internationalization of Portfolios***by*William C. Brainard & James Tobin**990 An Implementation of the Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm for Integer Programming***by*William Cook & Thomas Rutherford & Herbert E. Scarf & David F. Shallcross**989 How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?***by*Ray C. Fair**988 The Ecology of Markets***by*William D. Nordhaus**987 Transformations of the Commodity Space, Behavioral Heterogeneity and the Aggregation Problem***by*Jean-Michel Grandmont**986 Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: de rebus prioribus semper est disputandum***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**985 Comment on 'To Criticize the Critics,' by Peter C. B. Phillips***by*Christopher A. Sims**984 Dynamic Structural Models: Problems and Prospects. Mixed Continuous Discrete Controls and Market Interactions***by*Ariel Pakes**983 Repeated Games: Cooperation and Rationality***by*David G. Pearce**982 Stabilizing the Soviet Economy***by*William D. Nordhaus**981 A Bound of the Proportion of Pure Strategy Equilibria in Generic Games***by*Faruk Gul & David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**980 Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger**979 Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?***by*Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt**978 The Spurious Effect of Unit Roots on Exogeneity Tests in Vector Autoregressions: An Analytical Study***by*Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips**977 Vector Autoregression and Causality***by*Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips**976 An 'Average' Lyapunov Convexity Theorem and Some Core Equivalence Results***by*Lin Zhou**975 Exactly Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive-Unit Root Models***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**974 A Refined Bargaining Set of an n-Person Game and Endogenous Coalition Formation***by*Lin Zhou**973 Dual Distribution in Franchising***by*Nancy T. Gallini & Nancy A. Lutz**972 Strictly Fair Allocations in Large Exchange Economies***by*Lin Zhou**971 Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators***by*Robert J. Shiller**970 Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices***by*Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller**969 Economic Equilibrium and Soviet Economic Reform***by*Herbert E. Scarf**968 Tests of Specification for Parametric and Semiparametric Models***by*Yoon-Jae Whang & Donald W.K. Andrews**966 The Invisible Hand in Modern Macroeconomics***by*James Tobin**965 Shortest Integer Vectors***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Shallcross, David F.

### 1990

**967 The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models with an Application to External Debt Crisis***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel McFadden**964 A Strategic Market Game with a Mutual Bank with Fractional Reserves and Redemption in Gold (A Continuum of Traders)***by*Martin Shubik & D.P. Tsomocos**963 Default and Bankruptcy in a Multistage Exchange Economy***by*Martin Shubik**962 On the Convex Hull of the Integer Points***by*Antal Balog & Imre Barany**961 A Strategic Market Game of a Finite Economy with a Mutual Bank***by*Martin Shubik & Jingang Zhao**960 Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Axel Borsch-Supan**959 The Price for the Widow's Cruse: Or the Value of an Infinitely Productive Asset***by*Martin Shubik**958 Least Concavity and the Distribution-Free Estimation of Non-Parametric Concave Functions***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**957 Estimation of Multinomial Models Using Weak Monotonicity Assumptions***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**956 The Hybrid Solutions of an n-Person Game***by*Jingang Zhao**955 International Diversification of Social and Private Risk: The US and Japan***by*Stephen S. Golub**954 Inefficiency of Strategy-Proof Allocation Mechanisms in Pure Exchange Economies***by*Lin Zhou**953 Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Co-Movements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?***by*Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti**952 Popular Attitudes Towards Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared***by*Robert J. Shiller & Maxim Boycko & Vladimir Korobov**951 A Functional Central Limit Theorem for Strong Mixing Stochastic Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & David Pollard**950 To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**949 A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**948 Operational Algebra and Regression t-Tests***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**947 Testing Covariance Stationarity Under Moment Condition Failure with an Application to Common Stock Returns***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**946 The Generalized Basis Reduction Algorithm***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Laszlo Lovasz**945 The Frobenius Problem and Maximal Lattice Free Bodies***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Shallcross, David F.**944 Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis***by*Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews**943 Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**942 An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan**941 Voting by Committees***by*Salvador Barbera & Hugo Sonnenschein & Lin Zhou**940 Generic Uniform Convergence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**939 Financial Integration, Liquidity and Exchange Rates***by*Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini**938 Aggregation and Social Choice: A Mean Voter Theorem***by*Andrew Caplin & Barry Nalebuff**937 Aggregation and Imperfect Competition: On the Existence of Equilibrium***by*Andrew Caplin & Barry Nalebuff**936 A Colored Version of Tverberg's Theorem***by*Imre Barany & D.G. Larman**935 Testing Game Theoretic Models of Price-Fixing Behaviour***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**934 Growth and Distribution: A Neoclassical Kaldor-Robinson Exercise***by*James Tobin

### 1989

**933 Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt**932 Asymptotics for Linear Processes***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo**931 On the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy***by*James Tobin**930 Mathematical Programming and Economic Theory***by*Herbert E. Scarf**929 Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distribution Theory for IV Estimators and Tests in Partially Identified Structural Equations***by*In Choi & Peter C.B. Phillips**928 Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**927 Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle***by*William D. Nordhaus**925 Additive Interactive Regression Models: Circumvention of the Curse of Dimensionality***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yoon-Jae Whang**924 Risk Analysis in Economics: An Application to University Finances***by*William D. Nordhaus**923 Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior***by*Ray C. Fair**922 Warranties, Durability, and Maintenance: Two Sided Moral Hazard in a Continuous-Time Model***by*Nancy A. Lutz & Philip H. Dybvig**921 Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations***by*Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor**920 Renegotiation and Symmetry in Repeated Games***by*David G. Pearce & Dilip Abreu & Ennio Stacchetti**919 An Introduction to General Equilibrium with Incomplete Asset Markets***by*John Geanakoplos**918 A Nonparametric Maximum Rank Correlation Estimator***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**917 On Integer Points in Polyhedra: A Lower Bound***by*Imre Barany & Roger Howe & Laszlo Lovasz**916 Neighbors of the Origin for Four by Three Matrices***by*David F. Shallcross**915 The Reconciliation of Micro and Macro Economics***by*Martin Shubik**914 Game Theory Without Partitions, and Applications to Speculation and Consensus***by*John Geanakoplos**913 The Capital Asset Pricing Model as a General Equilibrium with Incomplete Markets***by*John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**912 Existence of Walras Equilibrium Without a Price Player of Generalized Game***by*John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey**911 Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**910 Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: III. Testing and Examples***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**909R Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: II. Stochastic Equicontinuity and Nonparametric Kernel Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**908R Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models: I. Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**907 An Empirical Process Central Limit Theorem for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**906 Asymptotic Optimality of Generalized C_{L}, Cross-Validation, and Generalized Cross-Validation in Regression with Heteroskedastic Errors***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**905 Market Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A Knightian View***by*Truman F. Bewley**904 Gold, Liquidity and Secured Loans in a Multi-Stage Economy. Part II. Many Durables, Land and Gold***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**903 The Transactions Cost of Money (A Strategic Game Analysis)***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**902 Solving Systems of Simultaneous Equations in Economics***by*John Geanakoplos & Shafer, Wayne**901 Observability and Optimality***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**900 Liquidity and Bankruptcy with Incomplete Markets: Pure Exchange***by*John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey**CFP 899 Testing for a Unit Root by Generalized Least Squares Methods in the Time and Frequency Domains***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & In Choi**898R The Durbin-Watson Ratio Under Infinite Variance Errors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan**897R Time Series Regression with a Unit Root and Infinite Variance Errors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**896 The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well***by*Ray C. Fair**895 Repeated Trade and the Velocity of Money***by*Martin Shubik & Pradeep Dubey & Siddhartha Sahi**887 A New Proof of Knight's Theorem on the Cauchy Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**886 A Little Magic with the Cauchy Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips

### 1988

**894 Nonparametric Tests of Maximizing Behavior Subject to Nonlinear Sets***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**893 Reflections on Econometric Methodology***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**892 The Interaction of Implicit and Explicit Contracts in Repeated Agency***by*David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**891 The Interaction of Implicit and Explicit Contracts in Repeated Agency***by*Martin Shubik**890 The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets***by*Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case**889 Nonparametric and Distribution-Free Estimation of the Binary Choice and the Threshold-Crossing Models***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**888 The Macroeconomics of Government Finance***by*James Tobin & Michael Haliassos**885 The Power of Commitment***by*John Geanakoplos & Chien-fu Chou**884R Correlated Equilibrium with Generalized Information Structures***by*Geanakoplos & Adam Brandenburger & Eddie Dekel**883 The Shapes of Polyhedra***by*Herbert E. Scarf & R. Kannan & Laszlo Lovasz**882R Error Correction and Long Run Equilibrium in Continuous Time***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**881 Estimation and Inference in Models of Cointegration: A Simulation Study***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen**880 Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of a Maintained Trend***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris & Joon Y. Park**879R Default and Efficiency in a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**878 Capital Structure and dividend Irrelevance with Asymmetric Information***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Jaime F. Zender**877R Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**876 The Stabilization of the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**875 Information and Timing in Repeated Partnerships***by*David G. Pearce & Dilip Abreu & Paul R. Milgrom**874R Asymptotic Normality of Series Estimators for Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regression Models***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**873 Spanning, Valuation and Options***by*Donald J. Brown & Stephen A. Ross**872 Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**871 Gold, Liquidity and Secured Loans in a Multistage Economy. Part I: Gold as Money***by*Martin Shubik & Shuntian Yao**870 Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson**869R Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen**868 Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference***by*Truman F. Bewley**867 Warranties as Signals Under Consumer Moral Hazard***by*Nancy A. Lutz**866R Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**865 The Characteristic Function of the Dirichlet and Multivariate F Distributions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**864 Common Knowledge of Summary Statistics***by*Adam Brandenburger & John Geanakoplos**863 Generic Inefficiency of Stock Market Equilibrium When Markets Are Incomplete***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii & J. Dreze**862 Appropriating the Returns from Industrial R&D***by*Richard C. Levin & Alvin K. Klevorick & Richard R. Nelson & Sidney G. Winter**861 A Centered Projective Algorithm for Linear Programming***by*Michael J. Todd & Yinyu Ye**860 Nonnegative Wealth, Absence of Arbitrage, and Feasible Consumption Plans***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Chi-fu Huang**859 Increases in Risk Aversion and Portfolio Choice in a Complete Market***by*Philip H. Dybvig**858 Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**857 The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts***by*Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller**775R A Theory of Hierarchies Based on Limited Managerial Attention***by*John Geanakoplos & Paul R. Milgrom

### 1987

**856R VAR Models as Structural Approximations***by*Ray C. Fair**855 Renegotiation-Proof Equilibria: Collective Rationality and Intertemporal Cooperation***by*David G. Pearce**854 A Note on an Optimal Garnishing Rule***by*Martin Shubik & Pradeep Dubey**853 Investor Behavior in the 1987-10 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence***by*Robert J. Shiller**852 Multiple Regression with Integrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**851 Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities***by*Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller**850R The Noncooperative Equilibria of a Trading Economy with Complete Markets and Consistent Prices***by*Siddhartha Sahi & Shuntian Yao**849 Inventories, Investment, Inflation and Taxes***by*James Tobin**848 An Aggregative Disequilibrium Model of the U.S. Labour Market***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**847R Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris**846 Weak Convergence of Sample Covariance Matrices to Stochastic Integrals via Martingale Approximations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**845R Partially Identified Econometric Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**844 Testing Strictly Concave Rationality***by*Rosa L. Matzkin & Marcel K. Richter**843 The Term Structure of Interest Rates. U.S. Government Term Structure Data***by*Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch**842 Bimodal t-Ratios***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**841 Silver and Gold and Liquidity***by*Martin Shubik**840 Joint Distribution Theory for Some Statistics Based on LIML and TSLS***by*Grant H. Hillier**839 Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations***by*Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez**838 Valuation and Optimality in Exchange Economies with a Countable Number of Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Charalambos Aliprantis & Owen Burkinshaw**837 Implementational Issues and Computational Performance Solving Applied General Equilibrium Models with SLCP***by*Thomas Rutherford**836 A Modeling System for Applied General Equilibrium Analysis***by*Thomas Rutherford**835 Knightian Decision Theory, Part II. Intertemporal Problems***by*Truman F. Bewley**834R Equilibria in Exchange Economies with a Countable Number of Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Charalambos Aliprantis & Owen Burkinshaw**833R Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation***by*Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller**832 Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair**831 The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update***by*Ray C. Fair**830 Semiparametric Estimation of Monotonic and Concave Utility Functions: The Discrete Choice Case***by*Rosa L. Matzkin**829 Game Theory. Models of Strategic Behavior and Nuclear Deterrence***by*Martin Shubik**828 Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**827R Distributional Analysis of Portfolio Choice***by*Philip H. Dybvig**826R Inefficient Dynamic Portfolio Strategies or How to Throw Away a Million Dollars in the Stock Market***by*Philip H. Dybvig**825 Sequential Games of Resource Extraction: Existence of Nash Equilibria***by*Rabah Amir**824R Conditional and Unconditional Statistical Independence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**823 Spherical Matrix Distributions and Cauchy Quotients***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**822 Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**821 Supply Shocks in Macroeconomics***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**820 The Future of Social Security: One Economist's Assessment***by*James Tobin**818 Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair**817 Financial Intermediaries***by*James Tobin**816 Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability***by*Robert J. Shiller**815 Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1986

**819R Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**814R A Strategic Market Game with Complete Markets***by*Rabah Amir & Siddhartha Sahi & Martin Shubik**813 International Evidence on the Demand for Money***by*Ray C. Fair**812 The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell**811R Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**810 Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination***by*Ray C. Fair**809R Testing for Cointegration Using Principal Component Measures***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris**808 Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale***by*Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez**807 Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1***by*Truman F. Bewley**806 The Unique Minimal Cash Flow Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**805 A Game Theoretic Approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**804 Enough Commodity Money and the Selection of a Unique Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**803 Temporal Dependence in Limited Dependent Variable Models: Theoretical and Monte-Carlo Results***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**802 Asymptotic Equivalence of OLS and GLS in Regressions with Integrated Regressors***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**801 On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park**800 Power in Econometric Applications***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**799 Limiting Distributions of the Number of Pure Strategy Nash Equilibria in n-Person Games***by*Imelda Yeung Powers**798 On the Performance of Least Squares in Linear Regression with Undefined Error Means***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**797 Quasirents, Influence and Organization Form***by*Paul R. Milgrom**796 Weak Convergence to the Matrix Stochastic Integral BdB***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**795R Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron**794 Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Pound**793 Resources, Technology, and Development: Will the Table Be Bare When Poor Countries Get There?***by*William D. Nordhaus**792 Two Misspecification Tests for the Simple Switching Regressions Disequilibrium Model***by*Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou**791 Toward a Theory of Discounted Repeated Games with Imperfect Monitoring***by*Dilip Abreu & David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**790 Consistency in Nonlinear Econometric Models: A Generic Uniform Law of Large Numbers***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**789 Defense Economics and Economic Warfare Revisited***by*J. Hoult Verkerke & Martin Shubik**788 Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis***by*Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips**787 Issues Arising in Management and Control of Naval Forces***by*P. Bracken & Martin Shubik**786 Best Median Unbiased Estimation in Linear Regression with Bounded Asymmetric Loss Functions***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Peter C.B. Phillips**785 Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller**784 Edgeworth Equilibria in Production Economies***by*Charalambos Aliprantis & Donald J. Brown & Owen Burkinshaw**783 The Share Economy: A Symposium***by*John Andrew & William D. Nordhaus**782R Towards a Unified Asymptotic Theory for Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**781R Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**780 The Monetary-Fiscal Mix: Long-Run Implications***by*James Tobin**695 The Behavior of U.S. Short-Term Interest Rates Since 1979-10***by*Richard H. Clarida & Benjamin M. Friedman

### 1985

**779 Auction Theory***by*Paul R. Milgrom**778 Walrasian Indeterminacy and Keynesian Macroeconomics***by*John Geanakoplos & Polemarchakis, Heracles M.**777 On Finitely Repeated Games and Pseudo-Nash Equilibria***by*Chien fu Chou & John Geanakoplos**776 Neoclassical Theory in America: J.B. Clark and Fisher***by*James Tobin**774 Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications***by*William D. Nordhaus**773 Comparative Statics and Local Indeterminacy in OLG Economies: An Application of the Multiplicative Ergodic Theorem***by*John Geanakoplos & Donald J. Brown**772R The Term Structure of Euromarket Interest Rates: An Empirical Investigation***by*John Y. Campbell & Richard H. Clarida**771 International Lending and Borrowing in a Stochastic Sequence Equilibrium***by*Richard H. Clarida**770R Real Indeterminacy with Financial Assets***by*John Geanakoplos & Andreu Mas-Colell**769 The Balance of Payments Adjustment Mechanism in a Rational Expectations Equilibrium***by*Richard H. Clarida**768 Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf**767 Fractional Matrix Calculus and the Distribution of Multivariate Tests***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**766 The Uses, Value and Limitation of Game Theoretic Methods in Defense Analysis***by*Martin Shubik**765 Asymptotic Expansions in Nonstationary Vector Autoregressions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**764 Existence, Regularity, and Constrained Suboptimality of Competitive Allocations When the Asset Market Is Incomplete***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**763R Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: II. Theory***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**762 Random Cell Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: I. Introduction and Applications***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**761R Asymptotic Results for Generalized Wald Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**760 Sections and Extensions of Concave Functions***by*Roger Howe**759 The Many Properties of Money: A Strategic Market Game Analysis***by*Martin Shubik**758 An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility***by*N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro**757 Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**756R Edgeworth Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Charalambos Aliprantis & Owen Burkinshaw**754 A Characterization of Globally Optimal Paths in the Non-Classical Growth Model***by*Rabah Amir**753 Enough Gold in a Society Without and With Money-Lenders***by*Martin Shubik**752 Mass-Economies with Vital Small Coalitions; the F-Core Approach***by*Peter J. Hammond & P. Kane & Myrna Holtz Wooders**751 A Model of a Sudden-Death Field-Goal Football Game as a Sequential Duel***by*Siddhartha Sahi & Martin Shubik**750 The Numeraire, Money and the Missing Degree of Freedom***by*Martin Shubik**749 Relying on the Information of Interested Parties***by*Paul R. Milgrom & John Roberts**747 Some Three Person Games in Coalitional Form for Teaching and Experimentation***by*Martin Shubik**746 An Axiomatization of Utility and Subjective Probability Based on Objective Probability***by*Mamoru Kaneko**745R Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models***by*Russell Cooper & John Andrew**744 The Use of Simple Games to Illustrate Concepts and to Provide Experimental Evidence***by*Martin Shubik**743 Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Bias in Tests of Rational Expectations***by*N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro**742 Aggregation and Linearity in the Provision of Intertemporal Incentives***by*Bengt Holmstrom & Paul R. Milgrom**741 Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications***by*Adrian Pagan**740R Time Series Regression with a Unit Root***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**739 The Distribution of FIML in the Leading Case***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**738 Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw**736 Capital Utilization and Capital Accumulation: Theory and Evidence***by*Matthew D. Shapiro

### 1984

**735 The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**734R A Note on the Unbiasedness of Feasible GLS, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood, Robust Adaptive, and Spectral Estimators of the Linear Model***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**733 Games with Perceptive Commanders But Less Perceptive Subordinates***by*Martin Shubik**732 Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation***by*Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller**731 The Exact Distribution of the Wald Statistic: The Non-Central Case***by*Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips**730 A Note on Enough Money in a Strategic Market Game with Complete or Fewer Markets***by*Martin Shubik**729 Managerial Incentives and Capital Management***by*Bengt Holmstrom & I. Ricard & Joan Costa**728 Neighborhood Systems for Production Sets with Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**727 Expansionary Government Policy in an Economy with Commodity and Labor***by*Russell Cooper**726 Optimal Cartel Equilibria with Imperfect Monitoring***by*Dilip Abreu & David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**725 Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw**724 On a General Existence Theorem for Marginal Cost Pricing Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal & M. Ali Khan & Rajiv Vohra**722 The Exact Distribution of the Wald Statistic***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**721 Testing for Serial Correlation and Unit Roots Using a Computer Function Routine Bases on ERA's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & R.C. Reiss**720 General Equilibrium with Wage Rigidities: An Application to Belgium***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Ludo Van der Heyden**719R Stock Prices and Social Dynamics***by*Robert J. Shiller**718 The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**717R Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach***by*William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf**716 Product Warranties and Double Moral Hazard***by*Russell Cooper & T.W. Ross**715 Strategic Market Games: A Dynamic Programming Application to Money, Banking and Insurance***by*Martin Shubik**714 Plausible Outcomes for Games in Strategic Form***by*Martin Shubik**713 The Many Approaches to the Study of Monopolistic Competition***by*Martin Shubik**712 Nuclear Warfare, C_{3}I and First and Second Scenarios (A Sensitivity Analysis)***by*Martin Shubik & Bracken, J. & Tulowitzki, Haviv**711R A Mean-Variance Approach to Fundamental Valuations***by*James Tobin**710R Stability Comparisons of Estimators (5/1985 and 11/1985)***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**709 Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality***by*Paul R. Milgrom & John Roberts**708R Job Discrimination, Market Forces and the Invisibility Hypothesis***by*Paul R. Milgrom**707 Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation***by*Ray C. Fair**706 The Cooperative Form, the Value and the Allocation of Joint Costs and Benefits***by*Martin Shubik**705R Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations***by*Richard H. Clarida**704 A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results***by*Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander**703 A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models***by*Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander**702 Conditional Projection by Means of Kalman Filtering***by*Richard H. Clarida & Diane Coyle**701 On the Stochastic Steady-State Behavior of Optimal Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Wage Fluctuations and Incomplete Markets***by*Richard H. Clarida**700 A General Equilibrium Expression of the Paradox of Thrift***by*Christophe Chamley**699 Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in Economies with Identical Private and Social Discount Rates***by*Christophe Chamley**698 A Zero-One Result for the Least Squares Estimator***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**697 Robust Estimation of Location in a Gaussian Parametric Model: II***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**696 A Note on Biology, Time and the Golden Rule***by*Martin Shubik**694 Current Account, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model***by*Richard H. Clarida**693 Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity***by*Ray C. Fair**692 Excess Labor and the Business Cycle***by*Ray C. Fair**691 Insurance, Flexibility and Non-contingent Trades***by*Russell Cooper**690 Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a General Equilibrium Model***by*Truman F. Bewley**689 On a Variable Dimension Algorithm for the Linear Complementarity Problem***by*Ludo Van der Heyden**688R Monopoly Provision of Product Quality with Uninformed Buyers***by*Russell Cooper & Thomas W. Ross**687 Net Present Value Maximization and Imperfections in the Loan Market: A Note***by*Cynthia Van Hulle**656R Optimal Labor Contracts and the Role of Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model***by*Russell Cooper

### 1983

**723R An Everywhere Convergent Series Representation of the Distribution of Hotelling's Generalized T_{0}^{2}***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**686 Stochastic Equilibrium and Turnpike Property: The Discounted Case***by*Ramon Marimon**685 Dominance and Shareholder Unanimity: A New Approach***by*Cynthia Van Hulle**684 The Optimality of Regulated Pricing: A General Equilibrium Analysis***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**683 Finite Sample Econometrics Using ERA's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**682 The Exact Distribution of the Stein-Rule Estimator***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**681 The Exact Distribution of Exogenous Variable Coefficient Estimators***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**680 The Exact Distribution of Zellner's SUR***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**679 On University Education in Econometrics: Remarks on an Article by Eric R. Sowey***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**678R A Note on the 'Corelessness' of Antibalance of a Game***by*Martin Shubik & Shlomo Weber**677 Intertemporally Separable Overlapping Generations Economies***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**676 Information Patterns and Nash Equilibria in Extensive Games***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**675 Strategic Resource Extraction: When Easy Doesn't Do It***by*Jeremy I. Bulow & John Geanakoplos**674 Multimarket Oligopoly***by*Jeremy I. Bulow & John Geanakoplos & Paul D. Klemperer**673R Multiperiod Insurance Contracts***by*Russell Cooper & Beth Hayes**672 Organizing Production in a Large Economy***by*Paul R. Milgrom & Robert J. Weber**671R Worker Asymmetric Information and Involuntary Unemployment***by*Russell Cooper**670 Linear Complementarity and the Average Volume of Simplicial Cones***by*Roger Howe**669 Macroeconomics Under Debate***by*James Tobin**668 Profit-Sharing in a Collusive Industry***by*Martin J. Osborne & Carolyn Pitchik**667 Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz**666 Fiscal Incidence in a Dynamic Life-Cycle Model with Land***by*Christophe Chamley & Wright, Brian D. Wright**665 Blockmodeling Complex Statutes: Mapping Techniques Based on Combinatorial Optimization for Analyzing Economic Legislation and Its Stress Points over Time***by*Scott A. Boorman & Paul R. Levitt**664 First Order Autoregressive Processes and Strong Mixing***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**663 The Exact Distribution of LIML: II***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**662 Monetary Policies with Increasing Returns***by*G. Chichilnisky & Geoffrey M. Heal**661 A Strategic Market Game with Transaction Costs***by*John D. Rogawski & Martin Shubik**660 Predetermined Prices and the Allocation of Social Risks***by*Costas Azariadis & Russell Cooper**647R On Allocative Distortions in Problems of Self-Selection***by*Russell Cooper

### 1982

**659 Robust and Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Location in a Stationary Strong Mixing Gaussian Parametric Model***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**658 The Exact Distribution of LIML: I***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**657 Near-Markets and Market Games***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**655 Global Stability in a Class of Markets with Three Commodities and Three Consumers***by*Masayoshi Hirota**654 Constancy and Constant Differences of Price Elasticities of Demand***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans & Hirofumi Uzawa**653 Marginal Versus Average Cost Pricing in the Presence of a Public Monopoly***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**652 Investment Versus Savings Incentives: The Size of the Bang for the Buck and the Potential for Self-Financing Business Tax Cuts***by*Alan J. Auerbach & Lawrence Kotlikoff**651 A Geometric Explanation of the Transfer Paradox in a Stable Economy***by*John Geanakoplos & Geoffrey M. Heal**650 Stable Disequilibrium Prices: Macroeconomics and Increasing Returns I***by*Geoffrey M. Heal**649 Scarf's Procedure for Integer Programming and a Dual Simplex Algorithm***by*Philip M. White & Andrew S. Caplin & Ludo Van der Heyden**648 The Structure of Social Risk***by*William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf**645 ERA's: A New Approach to Small Sample Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**644 Core and Competitive Equilibria with Indivisibilities***by*Martine Quinzii**643 Utility Functions for Debreu's 'Excess Demands'***by*John Geanakoplos**642 On the Disaggregation of Excess Demand Functions***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**641 Don't Bet on It***by*John Geanakoplos & James K. Sebenius**640 On Implicit Contracts and Involuntary Unemployment***by*John Geanakoplos & Takatoshi Ito**639 We Can't Disagree Forever***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**638 Failure of the Alternation Theorem in Rational Approximations Over C_0(-infinity,infinity)***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**637 The Distribution of Matrix Quotients***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**636 A Bookmaker or Market Type Test for Specification in Discrete Choice Models***by*John J. Beggs**635 Information Processing and Jury Decisionmaking***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Michael Rothschild & Christopher Winship**634R Revelation of Information in Strategic Market Games: A Critique of Rational Expectations***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**632 Integral Polyhedra in Three Spaces***by*Herbert E. Scarf**631 Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria in a Private Goods Economy***by*Pradeep Dubey & J.D. Rogawski**629 Information About Moves in Extensive Games: II***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**628 Equilibria for a Three-Person Location Problem***by*Martin J. Osborne & Carolyn Pitchik**627 Naval Procurement Problems: Theory and Practice***by*Zvi A. Livne & Martin Shubik**626 On the Exact Distribution of LIML (revised and extended, see CFDP 658)***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**625 Information About Moves in Extensive Games: I***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**624 Stochastic Games II: The Minmax Theorem***by*Curt Alfred Monash**623 Stochastic Games I: Foundations***by*Curt Alfred Monash**622 Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria: I***by*Pradeep Dubey & J.D. Rogawski**621 Exact Small Sample Theory in the Simultaneous Equations Model***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**620 Cores of Partitioning Games***by*Mamoru Kaneko & Myrna Holtz Wooders**619 Approximate Cores of a General Class of Economies: Part II. Set-Up Costs and Firm Formation in Coalition Production Economies***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**618 Approximate Cores of a General Class of Economies. Part I: Replica Games, Externalities, and Approximate Cores***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**617 Small Sample Distribution Theory in Econometric Models of Simultaneous Equations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**616 Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy: Paul A. Samuelson and Modern Economics***by*James Tobin**615 How Fast Should We Graze the Global Commons?***by*William D. Nordhaus**614 The Conventionally Stable Sets in Noncooperative Games with Limited Observations: The Application to Monopoly and Oligopoly***by*Mamoru Kaneko**613R Money and Finance in the Macro-Economic Process***by*James Tobin

### 1981

**612 The Epsilon Core of a Large Game***by*Myrna Holtz Wooders**611 Macroconfusion: The Dilemmas of Economic Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus**610 Payoffs in Non-Atomic Economies: An Axiomatic Approach***by*Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman**609 Marginal Densities of Instrumental Variable Estimators in the General Single Equation Case***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**608 A New Approach to Small Sample Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**607 Some Remarks on the Folk Theorem in Game Theory***by*Mamoru Kaneko**606 Game Theory: The Language of Strategy?***by*Martin Shubik**605 Asset Markets, General Equilibrium and the Neutrality of Money***by*Christophe Chamley & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**604 Economic Policy in the Face of Declining Productivity Growth***by*William D. Nordhaus**603 Schumpeterian Dynamics II. Technological Progress, Firm Growth and 'Economic Selection'***by*Katsuhito Iwai**602 Schumpeterian Dynamics I. An Evolutionary Model of Innovation and Imitation***by*Katsuhito Iwai**601 The Conventionally Stable Sets in Noncooperative Games with Limited Observations: Definitions and Introductory Arguments***by*Mamoru Kaneko**600 Algorithms for the Linear Complementarity Problem Which Allow an Arbitrary Starting Point***by*Dolf A.J.J. Talman & Ludo Van der Heyden**599 The Optimal Progressive Income Tax -- The Existence and the Limit Tax Rates***by*Mamoru Kaneko**598 On the Infinite Welfare Cost of Inflation and Other Second Order Effects***by*Christophe Chamley**597 Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares***by*Ray C. Fair**596 Arbitrage Pricing Theory in a Finite Economy***by*John J. Beggs**595 Approximate Equilibria with Bounds Independent of Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson & M. Ali Khan & Salim Rashid**594 Mandatory Retirement Saving and Capital Formation***by*Walter Dolde & James Tobin**593 Market Structure in the 'Research and Development Phase'***by*John J. Beggs**592 Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries***by*Ray C. Fair**591 Efficient Stationary Taxation and Intertemporal General Equilibrium***by*Christophe Chamley & Douglas Downing**590 Strong Core Theorems with Nonconvex Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson**589 Interest Rate Policies and Informational Efficiency***by*Laurence Weiss**588 The Dynamic Interaction Between Industry Level Profits and Research and Development***by*John J. Beggs**587 Ratio Equilibrium in an Economy with an Externality***by*Yozo Ito & Mamoru Kaneko**586 Marginal Cost Pricing, Taxation and Subsidies in Urban Transport***by*John J. Beggs**585 Properties of Manipulative Government Forecasts***by*John J. Beggs**584 The Demand for Telephone Services in Australia and the Welfare Implications of Alternative Pricing Policies***by*John J. Beggs**583 An Empirical Note on the Disposition of U.S. Corporations to Undertake Research and Development Expenditures***by*John J. Beggs**582 Cake Slicing and Revealed Government Preference***by*John J. Beggs & Samuel Strong**581 Existence of Equilibrium in a Hyperfinite Exchange Economy: I and II***by*Donald J. Brown & Lucinda M. Lewis**580 Entrepreneurial Abilities and Liabilities in a Model of Self-Selection***by*Christophe Chamley**579 Equilibria of a Two-Person Non-Zero Sum Noisy Game of Timing***by*Carolyn Pitchik**578 Core Theory with Strongly Convex Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson**577 Society, Land, Love or Money (A Strategic Model of How to Glue the Generations Together)***by*Martin Shubik**576 Duopoly with Differentiated Products and Entry Barriers***by*Kofi O. Nti & Martin Shubik**551 Incentive Arbitration and Time-Related Bargaining Costs***by*Zvi A. Livne**550 An Extension of the Nash Bargaining Problem: Introducing Time-Related Bargaining Costs***by*Zvi A. Livne

### 1980

**575 A Path Following Procedure for Finding a Point in the Core of a Balanced N-Person Game***by*Ludo Van der Heyden**574 Additively Decomposed Quasiconvex Functions***by*Gerard Debreu & Tjalling C. Koopmans**573 On the Consistency of Non-Linear FIML***by*Phillips, Peter C.B.**572 A Market Value Approach to Approximate Equilibria***by*Robert M. Anderson**571 Housing Market with Indivisibility***by*Mamoru Kaneko**570 National Savings, Economic Welfare, and the Structure of Taxation***by*Alan J. Auerbach & Lawrence Kotlikoff**569 The Adequacy of Savings***by*Lawrence Kotlikoff & Avia Spivak & Lawrence H. Summers**568 On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators***by*Esfandier Maasoumi & Peter C.B. Phillips**567 Characteristic Functions and the Tail Behavior of Probability Distributions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**566 A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for the Nonemptiness of the Cores of Partitioning Games***by*Mamoru Kaneko**565 Thinking About Carbon Dioxide: Theoretical and Empirical Aspects of Optimal Control Strategies***by*William D. Nordhaus**564 Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models***by*Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor**563 The Central Assignment Game and the Assignment Markets***by*Mamoru Kaneko**562 Best Uniform Approximation to Probability Densities in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**561 The Characteristic Function of the F Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**560 On a Lemma of Amemiya***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**559 Perfect or Robust Noncooperative Equilibrium: A Search for the Philosophers Stone?***by*Martin Shubik**558 Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle***by*Sanford Grossman & Laurence Weiss**557 Intergenerational Political Economy (A Game Theoretic Model of How to Glue the Generations Together)***by*Martin Shubik**556 Extension of a Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**555 Policy Responses to the Productivity Slowdown***by*William D. Nordhaus**554 Optimal Intertemporal Taxation and the Public Debt***by*Christophe Chamley**553 The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Economy***by*Christophe Chamley**552 A Model of Output, Employment, Capital Formation and Inflation***by*R.W. Bailey & V.B. Hall & Peter C.B. Phillips**549 An Application of the Khachian-Shor Algorithm to a Class of Linear Complementary Problems***by*Ilan Adler & Richard P. McLean & J. Scott Provan**548 A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior***by*David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin**547 Weakly Democratic Regular Tax Equilibria in a Local Public Goods Economy with Perfect Consumer Mobility***by*Donald K. Richter**546 Output Supply, Employment, and Intra-Industry Wage Dispersion***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Gerald David Jaynes**545 Inequality, Exploitation, Justice and Socialism: A Theoretical-Historical Approach***by*John E. Roemer**544 Rawlsian Justice as the Core of a Game***by*John E. Roemer & Roger Howe**543 Exploitation and Class: Part II, Capitalist Economy***by*John E. Roemer**542 Linear Complementarity and the Degree of Mappings***by*Roger Howe

### 1979

**541R A Multicountry Econometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair**540 Some Relationships Between Discrete and Continuous Models of an Urban Economy***by*Richard P. McLean & Thomas J. Muench**539 Morse Programs***by*Okitsugu Fujiwara**538 On the Tendency Toward Convexity of the Vector Sum of Sets***by*Roger Howe**537 An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models***by*William R. Parke**536 The Spending Behavior of Wealth- and Liquidity-Constrained Consumers***by*Kim Kowalewski & Gary Smith**535 Disequilibrium Models of Financial Institutions***by*Gary Smith & William C. Brainard**534 The Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus**533 Tax-Based Incomes Policies: A Better Mousetrap?***by*William D. Nordhaus**532 How Should We Revise Our Beliefs About Nuclear Power Safety After Three Mile Island?***by*William D. Nordhaus**531 Competitive Bidding and Proprietary Information***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans & Robert J. Webber**530 On the Relation of Various Reliability Measures to Each Other and to Game Theoretic Values***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans & David R. Strip**529 The Design of Distributed Service Systems***by*David R. Strip & Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**528 Information Aggregation and Policy***by*Laurence Weiss**527 The ALEP Definition of Complementarity and Least Concave Utility Functions***by*Yakar Kannai**526 Production Sets with Indivisibilities: Generalities and the Case of Two Variables***by*Herbert E. Scarf**525 Stochastic Games, Oligopoly Theory and Competitive Resource Allocation***by*Martin Shubik & Matthew J. Sobel**524 Most Convex Functions are Smooth***by*Roger Howe**523 On the Non-Existence of Multiplicative Equilibrium Bidding Strategies***by*Engelbrecht-Wiggans & Robert J. Weber**522 The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Floating Exchange Rates: An Exposition***by*James Tobin & Jorge B. de Macedo**521 A Strategic Market Game with Price and Quantity Strategies***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**520 Price-Quantity Strategic Market Games***by*Pradeep Dubey**519 Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair & William R. Parke**518 An Even More Elementary `Calculus' Proof of the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem***by*Yakar Kannai**517 Cooperative Game Solutions: Australian, Indian and U.S. Opinions***by*Martin Shubik**516 An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production***by*Timothy J. Kehoe**515 Subjectivity in the Valuation of Games***by*Robert J. Weber**514 Market Induced Welfare Optima***by*Rolf R. Mantel**513 Value Theory without Efficiency***by*Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman & Robert J. Weber**500R Bidding in Auctions with Multiplicative Lognormal Errors: An Example***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**496R Auctions and Bidding Models: A Survey***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans

### 1978

**512 Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Capital Formation, and Economic Activity***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**511 An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model***by*Ray C. Fair**510 Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**509 A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium in a Quasi-Competitive Industry***by*John Sutton**508R Finiteness and Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria***by*Pradeep Dubey**507 The Capital Stock Modified Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**506 A Proposal for International Monetary Reform***by*James Tobin**505 Economics among the Sciences***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**504 Equity, Efficiency and Increasing Returns***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**503 The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time***by*Steven Shavell & Laurence Weiss**502 Government Deficits and Capital Accumulation***by*James Tobin**501 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: II. Finiteness***by*Pradeep Dubey**499 A Model of International Trade and Finance***by*Laurence Weiss**498 Comparison of Public Choice Systems***by*Robert J. Weber**497 Debt Neutrality: A Brief Review of Doctrine and Evidence***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**495 A Model for the Distribution of the Number of Bidders in an Auction***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**494 An Example of a Multi-Object Auction Game***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**493 An Integrated Model of Household Flow-of-Funds Allocations***by*David Backus & Douglas D. Purvis**492 An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**491 The Role for Active Monetary Policy in a Rational Expectations Model***by*Laurence Weiss**490 Profitability and Growth in a Small Open Economy***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**489 Systems Defense Games: Colonel Blotto, Command and Control***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**488 Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo**487 A Note on the Saddlepoint Approximation in the First Order Non-Circular Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**486 The Transition from Exhaustible to Renewable or Inexhaustible Resources***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**485 The Structure of Neutral Monotonic Social Functions***by*Julian H. Blau & Donald J. Brown**484 On 'On the Foundations of the Theory of Monopolistic Competition'***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**483 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 37. The Profit Maximizing Firm: Managers and Stockholders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**482 Competitive Valuation of Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**481 Myopic Economic Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Lucinda M. Lewis**480 Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**479 A Model of the Jury Decision Process***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Michael Rothschild**478 The Nucleolus as a Noncooperative Game Solution***by*Martin Shubik & H. Peyton Young**472R The Effects of Money Supply on Economic Welfare***by*Weiss, Laurence Weiss

### 1977

**477 Modelling the Choice of Residential Location***by*Daniel McFadden**476 Game Theory Models and Methods in Political Economy***by*Martin Shubik**475 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: I. Existence and Convergence***by*Pradeep Dubey**474 Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behaviour of Individuals: Some Recent Developments***by*Daniel McFadden**473 The Computation of Equilibrium Prices: An Exposition***by*Herbert E. Scarf**471R Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Robert J. Weber**471 Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Pradeep Dubey & Robert J. Weber**470 Sealed Bid Auctions with Non-Additive Bid Functions***by*Richard Englebrecht-Wiggans**469 The Greedy Heuristic Applied to a Class of Set Partitioning and Subset Selection Problems***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**468 The Long Run Implications of an IS-LM Simulation Model***by*Gary Smith**467 Information Conditions, Communication and General Equilibrium***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**466 The Long Run Implications of a Two Sector Model with Immobile Capital***by*Gary Smith**465 On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries***by*Ray C. Fair**464 The Long Run Consequences of Monetary and Fiscal Policies When the Governments Budget Is Not Balanced***by*Gary Smith**463 Deficit Spending and Crowding Out in Shorter and Longer Runs***by*James Tobin**462 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**461 Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Interpretations of the IS-LM Model***by*Gary Smith**460R Strategic Market Games: A Sketch of an Approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Together with an Informal Guide to Some Papers***by*Martin Shubik**459 An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets***by*Ray C. Fair**458 How Dead is Keynes?***by*James Tobin**457 Modeling Technological Change: Use of Mathematical Programming Models in the Energy Sector***by*William D. Nordhaus & Ludo Van der Heyden**456 Monetary Policies and the Economy -- The Transmission Mechanism***by*James Tobin**455 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 22. A Price-Quantity Buy-Sell Market with and without Contingent Bids***by*Martin Shubik**454 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 36. The Money Rate of Interest (A Multiperiod Nonatomic Trading and Production Economy with Outside Money, Inside Money and Optimal Bankruptcy Rules)***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**453 An Observation on the Structure of Production Sets with Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**452 Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**451 A Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**450 A Shortrun Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy***by*Gary Smith**449 What is the Value of Advanced Nuclear Power?***by*William D. Nordhaus**448 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 35. Bankruptcy and Optimality in a Closed Trading Mass Economy Modelled as a Noncooperative Game***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**447 Noncooperative Exchange with a Continuum of Traders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Lloyd S. Shapley**446 The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve***by*Ray C. Fair**445 Logrolling and Budget Allocation Games***by*Martin Shubik & Ludo Van der Heyden**444 An Extension of the Brown-Robinson Equivalence Theorem***by*Donald J. Brown & M. Ali Khan**443 Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide***by*William D. Nordhaus**442 Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1976

**441 Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 34. A Multiperiod Trading Economy with Fiat Money, Bank Money and an Optimal Bankruptcy Rule***by*Martin Shubik**440 Probabilistic Generalizations of the Shapley Value***by*Pradeep Dubey**439 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 33. On the Value of Market Information***by*Martin Shubik**438 Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime***by*Douglas D. Purvis**437 Price Information and the Economics of Consumerism: A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium***by*John Sutton**436 A Theory of Extramarital Affairs***by*Ray C. Fair**435 Economic Growth and Climate: The Carbon Dioxide Problem***by*William D. Nordhaus**434 A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator***by*Ray C. Fair**433 The Small-Disturbance-Asymptotic Moments of the Instrumental Variables and Ordinary Least Squares Estimators for a Dynamic Equation with Correlated Errors***by*Jon K. Peck**432 A Model of Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information***by*Charles Wilson**431 A Dynamic Economy with Shares, Fiat, Bank and Accounting Money***by*Joseph J.M. Evers & Martin Shubik**430 A Model of the World Economy***by*Ray C. Fair**429 A Closed Economic System with Production and Exchange Modelled as a Game of Strategy***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**428 The Linear Exchange Model and Induced Welfare Optima***by*Rolf R. Mantel**427 Asset Markets and the Cost of Capital***by*James Tobin & William C. Brainard**426 A Short-Run Two-Commodity Macroeconomic Model***by*Gary Smith & William Starnes**424R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 30 (revised). The Optimal Bankruptcy Rule in a Trading Economy Using Fiat Money***by*Martin Shubik & Charles Wilson**423 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part IV. The Theory of Long-Run Phillips Curve***by*Katsuhito Iwai**422 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 28. The Noncooperative Equilibria of a Closed Trading Economy with Market Supply and Bidding Strategies***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**421 Concepts of Optimality and Their Uses***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**420 The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance***by*Ray C. Fair**419 On a General Approach to Optimality in Game Theory***by*Eduardas Vilkas**418 The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President***by*Ray C. Fair**417 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 27. Beyond General Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**416 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 26. On the Number of Types of Markets with Trade in Money***by*Martin Shubik**415 Inflation Theory and Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus

### 1975

**414 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 25. A Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money, Futures and Spot Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**413 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part II. The Empirical Specification***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**412 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part I. Full Format Computation of Economic Equilibria***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**411 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part III. A Keynesian Theory of Money Wage Adjustment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**410R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 24. Trade and Prices in a Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money and No Futures Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**409 Implications of Microeconomic Theory for Community Excess Demand Functions***by*Rolf R. Mantel**408 Examples of Production Relations Based on Microdata***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**407 The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices***by*Geoffrey M. Heal**406 The Values of a Nonstandard Competitive Allocation***by*Donald J. Brown & Peter A. Loeb**405 The Demand for Energy: An International Perspective***by*William D. Nordhaus**404 The Estimation of a Dynamic Equation Following a Preliminary Test for Autocorrelation***by*Jon K. Peck**403 Price Taking or Price Making Behavior: An Alternative to Full Cost Price Functions***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Israel Zang**402 A Critical Analysis of Ridge Regression***by*Frank Campbell & Gary Smith**401 Invariant Competitive Equilibrium in an Infinity-Horizon Economy with Negotiable Shares***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**400 A Control Variable Investigation of the Properties of Autoregressive Instrumental Variables Estimators for Dynamic Systems***by*David F. Hendry & Frank Srba**399 The Limiting Distribution of Inconsistent Instrumental Variables Estimators in a Class of Stationary Stochastic Systems***by*David F. Hendry**398 Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom***by*David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson**397 On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections***by*Ray C. Fair**396 A Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**395 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 23. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Force of the Rate of Interest and the Vanishing Float***by*Martin Shubik**394 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 21. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Float and the Money Rate of Interest***by*Martin Shubik**393 Collective Rationality***by*Donald J. Brown**392 A Duality Theory for Convex Infinite-Horizon Programming***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**391 Acyclic Aggregation over Finite Sets of Alternatives***by*Donald J. Brown**390 The Solution of Systems of Piecewise Linear Equations***by*B. Curtis Eaves & Herbert E. Scarf**389 A Finite Algorithm for the Linear Exchange Model***by*B. Curtis Eaves**388 Oligopoly, Theory, Communication and Information***by*Martin Shubik**387 Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression***by*James Tobin**386 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part II. Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics, Say's Law and the End of the Natural Rate Theory of Unemployment***by*Katsuhito Iwai

### 1974

**385 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part I. Microfoundations of Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics***by*Katsuhito Iwai**384 Long Run Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand***by*James Tobin & Willem H. Buiter**383 Multicollinearity and Forecasting***by*Gary Smith**382 The Value of a priori Information in Estimating a Financial Model***by*Gary Smith & William C. Brainard**381 Further Notes on the Misuse of R^2***by*Gary Smith**380 Okun's Law Revisited***by*Gary Smith**379 Competitive Equilibrium Contingent Commodities and Information***by*Martin Shubik**378 Global Analysis and Economics VI. Geometric Analysis of Pareto Optima and Price Equilibria under Classical Hypotheses***by*Steve Smale**377 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVI. Mathematical Models for a Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**376 Fiscal Capacity, Equalization and Public Expenditure for Education***by*Susan J. Lepper**375 Equilibrium Wage Distributions***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**374 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVIII. A Noncooperative Model of a Closed Trading Economy with Many Traders and Two Bankers***by*Martin Shubik**373 The Walrasian and Von Neumann Equilibria: A Comparison***by*Jerzy Los & Maria Wycech-Los**372 Transactions Technology and the Use of Intermediary Agents***by*Ross M. Starr**371 On the Role of Numbers and Information in Competition***by*Martin Shubik**370 The Moments of the 3SLS Estimates of the Structural Coefficients of a Simultaneous Equation Model***by*J.D. Sargan**369 Towards Keynesian Micro-Dynamics of Price, Wage, Sales and Employment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**368 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XV. A Trading Model to Avoid Tatonnement Metaphysics***by*Martin Shubik**367 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVII. On the Eight Basic Units of a Dynamic Economy with Spot and Futures Markets***by*Martin Shubik

### 1973

**366 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XIII. Trade with Spot Markets, Fiat Money and Internal Banking***by*Martin Shubik**365 The General Equilibrium Model is the Wrong Model and a Noncooperative Strategic Process Model is a Satisfactory Model for the Reconciliation of Micro and Macroeconomic Theory***by*Martin Shubik**364 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XII. A Dynamic Economy with Fiat Money Without Banking and With and Without Production Goods***by*Martin Shubik**363 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XI. Trade with Fiat Money but No Individual Trust. A Preliminary Stage towards Banking***by*Martin Shubik**362 Regulation of Natural Monopolies and the Fair Rate of Return***by*Hayne E. Leland**361 Production Theory and the Stock Market***by*Hayne E. Leland**360 Acyclic Choice***by*Donald J. Brown**359 The General Equilibrium Model with Joint Ownership of the Corporation (Voting Stock and the Core)***by*Martin Shubik**358 Some Problems of Centralized Economy***by*N.N. Moiseev & A.G. Schmidt**357 Alternative Theories of Wage Determination and Unemployment in L.D.C.'s: II. The Efficiency Wage Model***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**356 Some Observations on 'Optimal' Economic Growth and Exhaustible Resources***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**355 Fiat Money in an Economy with One Nondurable Good and No Credit (A Noncooperative Sequential Game)***by*Martin Shubik & Ward Whitt**354 The Theory of 'Screening', Education, and the Distribution of Income***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**353 Incentives and Risk-Sharing in Sharecropping***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**352 Voting, Preference Orderings and Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik**351 Game Theory and Political Science***by*Martin Shubik**350 A Note on the Shape of the Pareto Optimal Surface***by*Gordon H. Bradley & Martin Shubik**349 Money and the Decentralization of Exchange***by*Joseph M. Ostroy & Ross M. Starr

### 1972

**348 Technological Development and Employment***by*James Tobin**347 Information, Duopoly and Competitive Markets: A Sensitivity Analysis***by*Martin Shubik**346 Input Quality, Obsolescence and Unemployment***by*J. Kirker Stephens**345 Social Choice on Pollution Management: The GENOSSENSCHAFTEN***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Gerald H. Kramer**344 Some Further Results on the Measurement of Inequality***by*Michael Rothschild & Joseph E. Stiglitz**343 Existence of a 'Local' Cooperative Equilibrium in a Class of Voting Games***by*Gerald H. Kramer & Alvin K. Klevorick**342 Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium in a Nonstandard Exchange Economy***by*Donald J. Brown**341 Voting Behavior and Aggregate Policy Targets***by*Susan J. Lepper**340 Benefit-Cost Analysis and Trade Policies***by*Partha Dasgupta & Joseph E. Stiglitz**339 On the Irrelevance of Corporate Financial Policy***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**338 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part V. The Rate of Interest on Fiat Money in a Closed Economy***by*Martin Shubik**337 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part IX. Competitive and Controlled Price Economies: The Arrow Debreu Model Revisited***by*Martin Shubik**336 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VIII. Transactions Costs in a Market Economy***by*Martin Shubik**335 Alternative Theories of Wage Determination and Unemployment in L.D.C.'s: I. The Labor Turn-Over Model***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**334 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VI. The Rate of Interest, Noncooperative Equilibrium and Bankruptcy***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**333 Notes on Transactions Costs and the Analysis of Microeconomic Monetary Theory***by*William D. Nordhaus**332 Notes on Transactions Costs and the Analysis of Microeconomic Theory***by*Ross M. Starr**331 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VII. Money, Trust and Equilibrium Points in Games in Extensive Form***by*Martin Shubik**330 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part IV. Fiat Money and Noncooperative Equilibrium in a Closed Economy***by*Martin Shubik**329 The Effects of Inflation on the Distribution of Economic Welfare***by*William D. Nordhaus**328 A General Equilibrium Calculation of the Effects of Differential Taxation of Income from Capital in the U.S***by*John B. Shoven & John Whalley**327 The Marginal Revolution After One Hundred Years***by*Ronald G. Bodkin**326 The Cores of Large Standard Exchange Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Abraham Robinson**325 A Comparison of Alternative Estimators for a Dynamic Relationship Estimated from a Time Series of Cross-Sections When the Disturbances Are Small***by*Jon K. Peck**313R On the Definition and Computation of a Capital Stock Invariant Under Optimization***by*Terje Hansen & Tjalling C. Koopmans

### 1971

**324 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part III. The Missing Degree of Freedom: Commodity Money and Oligopoly in a General Equilibrium Model***by*Martin Shubik**323 Alternative Management of Common Property Resources under Free Access and Private Ownership***by*Martin L. Weitzman**322 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions: Part II. On the Paradox of the Efficient Price System in a Completely Centralized Economy and in a Capitalist Individual Ownership Economy***by*Martin Shubik**321 A New Measure of Income from Wealth***by*Donald A. Nichols**320 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part I. The General Approach Adopted***by*Martin Shubik**319 Is Growth Obsolete?***by*William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin**318 On the Scope of Gaming***by*Martin Shubik**317 Duality Theory of Convex Programming for Infinite Horizon Economic Models***by*Martin L. Weitzman**316 Competitive Equilibrium and Game Theory Solutions: Part I. The Core and Value***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**315 Summary Comment***by*James Tobin**314 Wealth, Liquidity, and the Propensity to Consume***by*James Tobin**312 Systems of Indirect Management in a Planned Economy: Effectiveness Models and Their Applications in Poland***by*Witold Trzeciakowski**311 Wealth, Liquidity, and Consumption***by*Walter Dolde & James Tobin**310 The Price of Money in a Pure Exchange Monetary Economy***by*Ross M. Starr**309 Friedman's Theoretical Framework***by*James Tobin**308 Nonstandard Exchange Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Abraham Robinson**307 An Estimate of Racial Discrimination in Rental Housing***by*Thomas King & Peter M. Mieszkowski**306 On Transitions between Steady States***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz

### 1970

**305 Taxation, Risk-Taking, and the Allocation of Investment***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**304 The Property Tax: An Excise Tax or a Profits Tax?***by*Peter M. Mieszkowski**303 The Badly Behaved Economy with the Well Behaved Production Function***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**302 On Durbin's Test for Serial Correlation in Distributed Lag Models***by*G.S. Maddala & A.S. Rao**301 On the Asymptotic Properties of Certain Two-Step Procedures Commonly Used in the Estimation of Distributed Lag Models***by*David M. Grether & G.S. Maddala**300 Equilibrium and Demand for Media of Exchange in a Pure Exchange Economy with Transactions Costs***by*Ross M. Starr**299 Differential Taxation, Public Goods, and Economic Efficiency***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz & Partha Dasgupta**298 Non-Linear Time Series Regression***by*E.J. Hannan**297 An Econometric Model of Postwar Japan***by*Fumimasa Hamada**296 Recent Developments in Price Dynamics***by*William D. Nordhaus**295 The Structure of Exchange in Barter and Monetary Economies***by*Ross M. Starr**294 Time Series Regression with Linear Constraints***by*E.J. Hannan & R.D. Terrell**293 On the Existence of a Cooperative Solution for a General Class of N-Person Games***by*Herbert E. Scarf**292 Aggregation and Disaggregation in the Pure Theory of Capital and Growth: A New Parable***by*Martin L. Weitzman**291 The Estimation of Mixed Regression, Autoregression, Moving Average and Distributed Lag Models***by*E.J. Hannan & D.F. Nichols**290 Food Prices in Relation to Income Levels in New York City***by*Roger E. Alcaly & Alvin K. Klevorick**289 Duopoly with Price and Quantity as Strategic Variables***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik**288 Pecuniary Externalities: A Game Theoretic Analysis***by*Martin Shubik**287 Price Duopoly and Capacity Constraints***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik

### 1969

**286 Material Balances under Uncertainty***by*Martin L. Weitzman**285 Investment, Savings and Employment in the Long-Run***by*David M.C. Newbery & A.B. Atkinson**284 On a Class of Equilibrium Conditions for Majority Rule***by*Gerald H. Kramer**283 Money and Income: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc?***by*James Tobin**282 Borrowing-Lending Interest Rate Differentials and the Time Allocation of Consumption***by*Thayer H. Watkins**281 An Analysis of the Importance of the Malleable Capital Assumption in Optimal Growth Models***by*David M.C. Newbery**280 Economic Aspects of Information***by*Luigi M. Tomasini**279 Distributed Lags, Prediction, and Signal Extraction***by*David M. Grether**278 The Choice of Techniques in a Dual Economy***by*David M.C. Newbery**277 A Fixed Point Algorithm for Approximating the Optimal Solution of a Concave Programming Problem***by*Terje Hansen**276 An Example of an Algorithm for Calculating General Equilibrium***by*Herbert E. Scarf**275 Increasing Risk: A Definition and Its Economic Consequences***by*Michael Rothschild & Joseph E. Stiglitz**274 Game Theory, Behavior and the Paradox of the Prisoners Dilemma -- 3 Solutions***by*Martin Shubik**273 Optimal Growth with Scale Economies in Overhead Capital***by*Martin L. Weitzman**272 On The Applications of a Recent Combinatorial Algorithm***by*Terje Hensen & Herbert E. Scarf**271 A Note on a Variance-Components Model Useful in the Study of Cross-Sections over Time***by*Marc Nerlove**270 Price Variation Duopoly with Differentiated Products and Random Demand***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik**269 Comparison of k-Class Estimators When the Disturbances Are Small***by*Joseph B. Kadane**268 Risk Aversion over Time and a Capital-Budgeting Problem***by*Alvin K. Klevorick**267 The 'Bridge Game' Economy***by*Martin Shubik**266 Shiftable vs. Non-Shiftable Capital: A Synthesis***by*Martin L. Weitzman**265 An Economic Theory of Technological Change***by*William D. Nordhaus**264 The Time Allocation of Consumption under Debt Limitations***by*Thayer H. Watkins**263 Money and Permanent Income: Some Empirical Tests***by*James Tobin & Craig Swan**262 A Note on Behavior towards Risk with Many Commodities***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz

### 1968

**261 Some Properties of 'Optimal' Seasonal Adjustment***by*David M. Grether & Marc Nerlove**260 Optimal Entrepreneurial Decisions in a Completely Stochastic Environment***by*Nils H. Hakansson**259 A Long-Run Cost Function for the Local Service Airline Industry: An Experiment on Non-Linear Estimation***by*George Eads & Marc Nerlove & William Raduchel**258 Countably Additive Measures in Cores of Games***by*Yakar Kannai**257 Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross-Sections***by*Marc Nerlove**256 Soviet Postwar Economic Growth and Capital Labor Substitution***by*Martin L. Weitzman**255 Regularity in the Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions***by*Joseph B. Kadane & Gordon H. Lewis**254 Stochastic Theories of Participation***by*Joseph B. Kadane & Gordon H. Lewis & John G. Ramage**253 Money Illusion, Price Expectations, and the Aggregate Consumption Function***by*William H. Branson & Alvin K. Klevorick**252 Theory of Liquidity Preference and the Term Structure of Interest Rates***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**251 The Distribution, When the Residuals Are Small, of Statistics Testing Overidentifying Restrictions***by*Joseph B. Kadane**250 Lags in Fiscal and Monetary Impacts on Investment in Producers Durable Equipment***by*Charles W. Bischoff**249 A Note on a Simulated Stock Market***by*Martin Shubik**248 The Effects of Income, Wealth, and Capital Gains Taxation on Risk Taking***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**247 Some Experimental Non-Constant-Sum Games Revisited. Perception of Opponent's Payoffs. Part III***by*Martin Shubik & David H. Stern**246 An Experimental Research in Oligopoly***by*James W. Friedman**245 Notes on Optimal Monetary Growth***by*James Tobin**244 Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building***by*William C. Brainard & James Tobin**243 Quiz Show Problems***by*Joseph B. Kadane

### 1967

**242 A Re-Examination of the Modigliani Miller Theorem***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**241 The Optimal Life of a Patent***by*William D. Nordhaus**240 Some Experimental Non-Constant-Sum Games Revisited. Part II***by*Martin Shubik & David H. Stern**239 Iterative Multi-Level Planning with Production Targets***by*Martin L. Weitzman**238 Distribution of Income and Wealth Among Individuals***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**237 A Note on Taxation, Increasing Returns Due to Set-up Costs and Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**236 Some Experimental Non-Constant-Sum Games Revisited. Part I***by*Martin Shubik & David H. Stern**235 An Econometric Study of Cotton Production and Trade Before 1860***by*Gavin Wright**234 A Noncooperative View of Oligopoly***by*James W. Friedman**233 Price Strategy Oligopoly with Product Variation***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**232 On the Computation of Equilibrium Prices***by*Herbert E. Scarf**231 Cross-Section Analysis and Bank Dynamics***by*Donald D. Hester & James L. Pierce**230 Welfare, Static and Dynamic Solution Concepts***by*Martin Shubik**229 Maximizing Stationary Utility in a Constant Technology***by*Richard Beals & Tjalling C. Koopmans**228 Intertemporal Distribution and 'Optimal' Aggregate Economic Growth***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**227 Part VII: The Nonsymmetric Game: The Generalized Beat-the-Average Solution***by*Levitan, Richard E. & Martin Shubik**226 Spectral Analysis of the Relation between Employment Changes and Output Changes***by*Daniel S. Hammermesh**225 Part V: The Nonsymmetric Game: Joint Maximum, Efficient Solution and Measures of Collusion and Welfare***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik**224 The Cournot Equilibrium in a Nonsymmetric Oligopolistic Market (A Business Game for Teaching and Research Purposes: Part VI)***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik**223 An Empirical Analysis of the Postwar Savings and Loan Industry***by*John E. Spencer**222 A Note on the Limit of the Core of an Exchange Economy***by*Terje Hansen**221 Distributed Lags and Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series***by*Marc Nerlove**220 The Role of the Neyman Pearson Lemma in the Theory of Discrete Search***by*Joseph B. Kadane**219 Part IV: Mathematical Structure and Analysis of the Nonsymmetric Game***by*Richard E. Levitan & Martin Shubik**218 An Impossibility Result Concerning the Theory of Decision-Making***by*Gerald H. Kramer**217 A Further Comparison of Some Models of Duopoly***by*Martin Shubik**216R The Approximation of Fixed Points of a Continuous Mapping***by*Herbert E. Scarf**203BR Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems. Part II: An Aggregative Socio-Economic Simulation of a Latin American Country***by*Martin Shubik

### 1966

**215 A Note on the Role of Money in Providing Sufficient Intermediation***by*David Cass & Menahem E. Yaari**214 Optimal Employment and Inflation over Time***by*Edmond S. Phelps**213 Structural Restrictions and Estimation Efficiency in Linear Econometric Models***by*Thomas J. Rothenberg**212 Objectives, Constraints and Outcomes in Optimal Growth Models***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**211 An Algorithm for a Class of Nonconvex Programming Problems***by*Herbert E. Scarf**210 Estimation of A Fixed Coefficients Vintage Model of Production***by*Richard Attiyeh**209 Some Econometric Problems in the Analysis of Inventory Cycles***by*Kenneth F. Wallis**208 Notes on the Taxonomy of Problems Concerning Public Goods***by*Martin Shubik**207 Equal Profits as a Fair Division***by*James W. Friedman**206R Structure of Preference over Time***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**205 Efficient Estimation with a priori Information: A Classical Approach***by*Thomas J. Rothenberg**204 Game Theory and Economic Behavior***by*Martin Shubik**203A Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems. Part I: General Considerations***by*Martin Shubik**202 Application of Signal Extraction Techniques in the Study of Economic Time Series***by*David M. Grether**201 An Empirical Analysis of Risk Taking by Firms in the Savings and Loan Industry***by*Donald D. Hester**200 Measurable, Transferable, Comparable Utility and Money***by*Martin Shubik

### 1965

**199 Quasi and Generalized Golden Rule Paths: A Study of Commanding Growth Paths***by*Edmond S. Phelps**198 Individual Saving, Aggregate Capital Accumulation, and Efficient Growth***by*David Cass & Menahem E. Yaari**197 Uncertainty and Diversification in International Trade***by*William C. Brainard & Richard N. Cooper**196 Axioms for Factor Augmenting Technical Progress***by*Edmond S. Phelps**195 A Re-Examination of the Pure Consumption Loans Model***by*David Cass & Menahem E. Yaari**194 The Ramsey Problem and the Golden Rule of Accumulation***by*Edmond S. Phelps**193 Random Measure Preserving Transformations***by*Robert J. Aumann**192 An Experimental Study of Cooperative Duopoly***by*James W. Friedman**191 Absorptive Capacity and the Golden Rule of Accumulation***by*Edmond S. Phelps**190 Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and the Golden Rule of Education***by*Edmond S. Phelps**189 Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth***by*Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps**188 A Model of Fixed Capital without Substitution***by*Robert M. Solow & James Tobin & C.C. Von Weisazacker & Menahem E. Yaari**187 A Dynamic Model of the Competitive Firm***by*Edward Zabel**186 A Model of Induced Invention, Growth and Distribution***by*Emmanuel M. Drandakis & Edmond S. Phelps**185 Factor-Price-Frontier Estimation of a 'Vintage' Production Model of the Post-war U.S. Nonfarm Business Sector***by*Edmond S. Phelps & Charlotte Phelps**184 The Relation Between Bank Portfolios and Earnings: An Econometric Analysis***by*Donald D. Hester & John F. Zoellner**183 Optimal Output and Price Policies for General Distributed Lag Demand Equations***by*Robert L. Graves & Lester G. Telser**182R The Core of an N Person Game***by*Herbert E. Scarf

### 1964

**181 A Time Series Analysis of Interest Rates***by*David I. Fand**180 A Business Game for Teaching and Research Purposes. Part III. Discussion and Manual for Users***by*Martin Shubik**179 A Parametric Simplicial Formulation of Houthakker's Capacity Method***by*C. Van De Panne & Andrew B. Whinston**178 Optimum Economic Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation: A Turnpike Theorem***by*David Cass**177 The Construction of Utility Functions from Expenditure Data***by*S.N. Afriat**176 Models of Technical Progress and the Golden Rule of Research***by*Edmond S. Phelps**175 Stock Market Indices: A Principal Components Analysis***by*George J. Feeney & Donald D. Hester**174 An Experimental Study in Oligopoly***by*James W. Friedman**173 Second Essay on the Golden Rule of Accumulation***by*Edmond S. Phelps**172 A Decomposition Algorithm for Quadratic Programming***by*Andrew B. Whinston**171 Convexity in the Theory of Choice under Risk***by*Menahem E. Yaari**170 An Informal Aggregative Socio-Economic Simulation of a Latin American Country***by*James W. Friedman & Martin Shubik**169 The Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium in a Monetary Economy***by*Emmanuel M. Drandakis**168 The Monetary Mechanism: Some Partial Relationships***by*James L. Pierce**167 Ownership and the Production Function***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**166 On Prices, Fiat Money, Credit and Transferable Utility. Part I***by*Martin Shubik**161R Anticipated Inflation and Economic Welfare in a Neoclassical Model***by*Edmond S. Phelps**156 Consumption-Saving Decisions When the Horizon is Random***by*Menahem E. Yaari

### 1963

**165 On an Asymptotic Non-Substitution Theorem in the Two-Sector Closed Production Model***by*Emmanuel M. Drandakis**164 A Two-Country, Three Commodity, Dynamic Model of International Trade***by*T.N. Srinivasan**163A Appendix to 'On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth'***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**163 On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**162 Conjugate Functions and Symmetric Duality***by*Andrew B. Whinston**160b Alternative Fiscal Policies for Targeted Growth***by*T.N. Srinivasan**160a On the Feasibility of Targeted Growth Through Taxation and the Social Virtue of Private Thrift***by*Edmond S. Phelps**159 Commercial Banks as Creators of 'Money'***by*James Tobin**158 On the Existence of an Optimal Plan in a Continuous-Time Allocation Process***by*Menahem E. Yaari**157 A Test of the Specification of the Aggregate Production Function***by*Ronald G. Bodkin**155 On the Consumer's Lifetime Allocation Process***by*Menahem E. Yaari**154R Factor Substitution in the Two-Sector Growth Model***by*Emmanuel M. Drandakis**153 Properties of Efficient Accumulation Paths in a Closed Production Model***by*Emmanuel M. Drandakis**152 Proportional Growth and Turnpike Theorems***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**151 Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series and Multiple Regression***by*Michael C. Lovell

### 1962

**150 On Flexibility of Future Preference***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**149 An Analysis of the Effects of Transitory Income on Expenditure of Norwegian Households***by*Harold W. Watts**148 The Demand for Cash and Working Balances of Corporations***by*Alan W. Heston**147 The Wage-Price Productivity Nexus***by*Ronald G. Bodkin**146 Welfare Economics and the Theory of Second Best***by*Otto A. Davis & Andrew B. Whinston**145 Non-Existence of Consistent Estimator Sequences and Unbiased Estimates: A Practical Example***by*H.S. Konijn**144 On a Theorem of Halmos Concerning Unbiased Estimation of Moments***by*H.S. Konijn**143 On the Existence of a Subinvariant Measure***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans & Richard E. Williamson**142 Stationary Utility and Time Preference***by*Peter A. Diamond & Tjalling C. Koopmans & Richard E. Williamson**141 Price Guides in Decentralized Organization***by*Andrew B. Whinston**140 Models of the Joint Demand for Cash and for an Interest-Bearing Asset. Part One***by*Tore Johansen**139R On a Two Sector Model of Growth***by*T.N. Srinivasan**138 Part I: Price-Quantity Markets***by*George J. Feeney**137 Size of Firm, Market Structure, and Innovation***by*Edwin Mansfield**136 The Expenditures of the Firm on Research and Development***by*Edwin Mansfield**135 An Empirical Evaluation of Theories of Saving***by*Harold W. Guthrie**134R The Speed of Response of Firms to New Techniques***by*Edwin Mansfield**133 Substitution, Fixed Proportions, Growth and Distribution***by*Edmond S. Phelps**132R Intrafirm Rates of Diffusion of an Innovation***by*Edwin Mansfield**131 Inventory Investment***by*Michael C. Lovell**63R Financial Intermediaries and the Effectiveness of Monetary Controls***by*James Tobin & William C. Brainard

### 1961

**115R3 A Business Game for Teaching and Research Purposes***by*Martin Shubik**115R2 A Business Game for Teaching and Research Purposes***by*Martin Shubik**115R1 A Business Game for Teaching and Research Purposes***by*Martin Shubik**130 On a Theorem of Scarf***by*Gerard Debreu**129 New Concepts and Techniques for Equilibrium Analysis***by*Gerard Debreu**128 An Inter-City Consumption Function***by*Harold W. Watts**127 Corporate Cash and Security Holdings: An Empirical Study of Cash, Securities and Other Current Accounts of Large Corporations***by*Alan W. Heston**126 Entry, Gibrat's Law, Innovation, and the Growth of Firms***by*Edwin Mansfield**125 Monetary Policy, Debt Management and Interest Rates: A Quantitative Appraisal***by*Arthur M. Okun**124 A Note on Uncertainty, Bayesian Inference and Competitive Behavior***by*Phoebus J. Dhrymes**123 Some Empirical Estimates of Short Run Price and Output Policies***by*Edwin S. Mills**122 On Devising Unbiased Estimators for the Parameters of a Cobb Douglas Production Function***by*Phoebus J. Dhrymes**121 Spatial Distribution of Industry***by*H.C. Bos**120 Economic Growth and Wicksell's Cumulative Process***by*Martin J. Beckmann**119 Administered Prices and Imports: The Steel Industry***by*Lawrence B. Krause**118 Input-Output and Activity Analysis in Industrial Concerns***by*Alan S. Manne**117 Investment Criteria and Choice of Techniques of Production***by*T.N. Srinivasan**116 The Growth of Television Ownership in the United Kingdom***by*Andrew D. Bain**114 Output, Sales and Inventory Policy in the Competitive Firm and the Stability of a Competitive Market***by*Edwin S. Mills**113 Some Informal Comments on Models of Decision Processes Under Uncertainty***by*Martin Shubik**112 Incentives, Decentralized Control, the Assignment of Joint Costs and Internal Pricing***by*Martin Shubik**111 An Empirical Examination of a Commercial Bank Loan Offer Function***by*Donald D. Hester**110R An Analysis of the New View of Investment***by*Edmond S. Phelps**109 The Accumulation of Risky Capital: A Discrete-Time Sequential Utility Analysis***by*Edmond S. Phelps**108 Estimation in the Linear Decision Model***by*Walter D. Fisher**107 Extended Edgeworth Bargaining Games and Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**105 Some Experimental Non-Zero Sum Games With Lack of Information about the Rules***by*Martin Shubik**104 Objective Functions and Models of Corporate Optimization***by*Martin Shubik**89R Buffer Stocks, Sales Expectations, and Stability: A Multi-Sector Theory of the Inventory Cycle***by*Michael C. Lovell

### 1960

**106 Comparative Advantage and Development Policy***by*Hollis B. Chenery**103 Factors Affecting the Occupational Migration of Labor from Agriculture***by*Charles H. Berry**102 Patterns of United States Imports, 1947-1958***by*Lawrence B. Krause**101 Capital Risk and Household Consumption: A Sequential Utility Analysis***by*Edmond S. Phelps**100 Approaches to the Study of Decision-Making Relevant to the Firm***by*Martin Shubik**99 An Objective Permanent Income Concept for the Household***by*Harold W. Watts**98 Inter-Generation Transfers of Wealth and the Theory of Saving***by*James Tobin & Harold W. Guthrie**97 Partial Trace Correlation Theory***by*John W. Hooper**96 Programming of Economic Development***by*Alan S. Manne**95 Product-Mix Alternatives: Flood Control, Electric Power, and Irrigation***by*Alan S. Manne**94 Corporation Dividend Payout Ratios and Target Ratios -- Their Significance and Determination***by*Guy Stevens**93 Demand for Tourists' Goods and Services in a World Market***by*Harold W. Guthrie**92 A New Technique in Equilibrium Analysis***by*Gerard Debreu**91 A Keynesian Model Extended by Explicit Demand and Supply Functions for Investment-Goods***by*Bjorn Thalberg**90R Forced Saving in a Keynesian Economy: An Analysis of Demand-Pull Inflation***by*Michael C. Lovell**88 A Model of Bank Portfolio Selection***by*Richard C. Porter**85R Investment, Replacement, and an Index of Technology***by*Benton F. Massell

### 1959

**87 On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors***by*Arthur M. Okun**86 Manufacturers' Inventories, Sales Expectations, and the Acceleration Principle***by*Michael C. Lovell**84 Comment on 'Interindustry Economics' by Chenery and Clark***by*Alan S. Manne**83 Analysis of a Production Problem by Dynamic Programming***by*Martin J. Beckmann**82 Theory of an Efficient Several-Person Firm***by*Jacob Marschak**81 Stationary Ordinal Utility and Impatience***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**80 Lagrange Multipliers Revisited***by*Morton Slater**79 Some Examples of Global Instability of the Competitive Equilibrium***by*Herbert E. Scarf**78 Consumers' Propensities to Hold Liquid Assets***by*Harold W. Guthrie**77R The Error of Forecast for Multivariate Regression Models***by*John W. Hooper & Arnold Zellner**76 Topological Methods in Cardinal Utility Theory***by*Gerard Debreu**75 Some Team Models of a Sales Organization***by*C.B. McGuire**74 Binary Choice Constraints on Random Utility Indicators***by*Jacob Marschak**73 On the Job Shop Scheduling Problem***by*Alan S. Manne**72 On 'An Identity in Arithmetic'***by*Gerard Debreu**71 Comparisons of Information Structures***by*C.B. McGuire**70 Remarks on the Economics of Information***by*Jacob Marschak**69 Consumer Expenditures and the Capital Account***by*James Tobin & Harold W. Watts**68 A Dynamic Programming Model of the Consumption Function***by*Martin J. Beckmann**67 A Few Remarks on the Assortment Problem***by*Wieslaw Sadowski**66 Random Orderings and Stochastic Theories of Response***by*H.D. Block & Jacob Marschak**65 Efficient and Viable Organizational Forms***by*Jacob Marschak**64 A Capital-Intensive Approach to the Small Sample Properties of Various Simultaneous Equation Estimators***by*Robert Summers**62 Linear Programming and Sequential Decision Models***by*Alan S. Manne

### 1958

**61 Testing for Neutrality of Technological Change. (Is Technological Change Neutral?)***by*Sidney G. Winter**60 A Theory of Life Insurance Company Portfolio Selection***by*Leroy S. Wehrle**59e Economic Theory of Teams. Chapter 5***by*Jacob Marschak & Roy Radner**59c Economic Theory of Teams. Chapter 3***by*Jacob Marschak & Roy Radner**59b Economic Theory of Teams. Chapter 2***by*Jacob Marschak & Roy Radner**59a Economic Theory of Teams. Chapter 1***by*Jacob Marschak & Roy Radner**58 Capital Formation and Technological Change***by*Benton F. Massell**57 Cardinal Utility for Even-chance Mixtures of Pairs of Sure Prospects***by*Gerard Debreu**56 Consumer Conformity in a Sample of College Students***by*Donald D. Hester**55 Limit Distributions of Failure Time for Series -- Parallel Systems***by*Roy Radner**54R Capacity Expansion and Probabilistic Growth***by*Alan S. Manne**53 Some Models of a Sales Organization***by*C.B. McGuire**52 Estimation of an Index of Site Productivity***by*George M. Furnival & Richard Rosett**51 Returns to Scale in Business Administration***by*Martin J. Beckmann**50b An Inventory Model for Repair Parts -- Approximations in the Case of Variable Delivery Time***by*Martin J. Beckmann**50a An Inventory Policy for Repair Parts***by*Martin J. Beckmann**49 The Measurement of Capacity***by*Lawrence R. Klein**48 On Incentives to Forecasters and to Decision Makers Under Uncertainty***by*John C. Harsanyi**47 An Analysis of the Distribution of Wages and Salaries in Great Britain***by*T.P. Hill

### 1957

**46 Bargaining in Ignorance of the Opponents' Utility Function***by*John C. Harsanyi**45 A Review of Some Economic Forecasts***by*Arthur M. Okun**44 Restatement of the Theory of Normal Backwardation***by*Hendrik S. Houthakker**43 Measures of Relative Income for Testing Theories of Consumer Behavior***by*Harold W. Guthrie**42 Random Orderings***by*H.D. Block & Jacob Marschak**41 On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes***by*James Tobin**40 The Value of Anticipations Data in Forecasting National Product***by*Arthur M. Okun**39 Stochastic Choice and Cardinal Utility***by*Gerard Debreu**38 Long-Run Income Expectations and Consumer Saving***by*Harold W. Watts**37 A Target Assignment Problem***by*Alan S. Manne**36 Consumer Response to Innovation: Television***by*Thomas F. Dernburg**35 Working Wives: An Econometric Study***by*Richard Rosett**34 The Estimation of Distributed Lags***by*Lawrence R. Klein**33 Alternative Forecasts of Saving 1947-56***by*James Tobin**30 The Estimation of Relationships in which the Dependent Variable Is Subject to Inertia***by*Richard Rosett**29 A Note on Least Squares Bias in Household Expenditure Analysis***by*Robert Summers**28 Minimax Estimation for Linear Regressions***by*Roy Radner**27 A Simplex Method for the Portfolio Selection Problem***by*Harry Markowitz**26 Water Storage Policy in a Simplified Hydroelectric System***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**25 On the Two Bin Inventory Policy: An Application of the Arrow-Harris-Marschak Model***by*Martin J. Beckmann & Richard F. Muth**24 Consumer Debt and Spending: Some Evidence from Analysis of a Survey***by*James Tobin**23 Programming of Economic Lot Sizes***by*Alan S. Manne**22 Experimental Tests of Stochastic Decision Theory***by*Jacob Marschak & Donald Davidson**21 Theory of Teams: Introduction***by*Jacob Marschak**13 The Application of Linear Programming to Team Decision Problems***by*Roy Radner

### 1956

**21 A New Approach to the Aggregation Problem***by*Fritz C. Holte**20 A Flow Model of Communication Towards an Economic Theory of Information***by*Martin J. Beckmann**19 The Theory of Backwardation for a Stationary Economy with Random Stocks***by*Martin J. Beckmann**18 A Theory of the Movement and Solution of Problems within an Organization***by*Roy Radner**17 Plant and Equipment Expenditures Surveys: Intentions and Fulfillment***by*Robert A. Levin**16 A Note on the Modigliani-Hohn Production Smoothing Model***by*Alan S. Manne**15 A Simple Analysis of the Leontief System***by*L.W. McKenzie**14 Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk***by*James Tobin**13 A Direct Approach to the Slutsky Relation***by*L.W. McKenzie**12 The Klein-Goldberger Forecasts for 1951, 1952 and 1954, Compared with Naive-Model Forecasts***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**11 The Efficiency of Estimation in Econometric Models***by*Lawrence R. Klein**10 Market Equilibrium***by*Gerard Debreu**9 An Econometric Investigation of the Lifetime Size Distribution of Average Annual Income***by*Robert Summers**3R Estimation of Relationships for Limited Dependent Variables***by*James Tobin

### 1955

**8 On the Allocation of Personnel in Teams***by*Martin J. Beckmann**7 Suggested Experiments on Tastes and Beliefs***by*Jacob Marschak**6 Remarks on the Rationale of Leadership***by*Jacob Marschak**5 Team Decision Problems***by*Roy Radner & Jacob Marschak**4 Assignment Problems and the Location of Economic Activities***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans & Martin J. Beckmann**2 Comments on Organizational Aspects of the Inventory Control Problem***by*Richard F. Muth**1 The Application of Multivariate Probit Analysis to Economic Survey Data***by*James Tobin

### 0820

**1432R On the Empirical Content of Quantal Response Equilibrium***by*Philip A. Haile & Ali Hortacsu & Grigory Kosenok

### Undated

**1970 Testing Equality of Covariance Matrices via Pythagorean Means***by*Jin Seo Cho & Peter C.B. Phillips**1968 Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests in Predictive Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Ye Chen**1950 Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013***by*Oliver D. Bunn & Robert J. Shiller**1943 How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?***by*Ray C. Fair**1482 On the Nonparametric Identification of Nonlinear Simultaneous Equations Models: comment on B. Brown (1983) and Roehrig (1988)***by*C. Lanier Benkard & Steven Berry**1268 Savings and Portfolio Choice in a Two-Period Two-Asset Model***by*Saku Aura & Peter Diamond Author-X-Name-Peter & John Geanakoplos