# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

**Order information:**

Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

**Pricing information:**There is no charge for up to three items from the lists. Additional items and subsequent requests bringing the total to over three items will be charged at the following rate which must be prepaid: $3.00 each sent to US address, $4.00 each sent to International address

**For corrections or technical questions regarding this series, please contact (Glena Ames)**

**Series handle:**repec:cwl:cwldpp

**Citations RSS feed:**at CitEc

### Impact factors

- Simple (last 10 years)
- Recursive (10)
- Discounted (10)
- Recursive discounted (10)
- H-Index (10)
- Aggregate (10)

**Access and download statistics**

**Top item:**

- By citations
- By downloads (last 12 months)

### 2005

**1506 Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Role-over***by*Mark A. Carlson & Galina B. Hale**1505 Flexibility as an Instrument in Digital Rights Management***by*Dirk Bergemann & Thomas Eisenbach & Joan Feigenbaum & Scott Shenker**1504 The Life-Cycle Personal Accounts Proposal for Social Security: An Evaluation***by*Robert J. Shiller**1503 Aggregation of Expert Opinions***by*Dino Gerardi & Richard McLean & Andrew Postlewaite**1502 Ex Post Implementation***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1501 Exactly Distribution-free Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with Possibly Weak Instruments***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Vadim Marmer**1500 Sparse Estimators and the Oracle Property, or the Return of Hodges' Estimator***by*Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Poetscher**1499 Behavioral Economics and Institutional Innovation***by*Robert J. Shiller**1498 The Demand for Information: More Heat than Light***by*Jussi Keppo & Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith**1497 Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy***by*Ray C. Fair

### 2004

**1496 Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data***by*Ray C. Fair**1495 Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess***by*Ray C. Fair**1494 Retrospective on the Postwar Productivity Slowdown***by*William D. Nordhaus**1493 Rule-Based and Case-Based Reasoning in Housing Prices***by*Gabrielle Gayer & Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman**1492 Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies***by*Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler & Dov Samet**1491 Fact-Free Learning***by*Enriqueta Aragones & Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler**1490 The Folk Theorem in Dynastic Repeated Games***by*Luca Anderlini & Dino Gerardi & Roger Lagunoff**1489 Competitive Experimentation with Private Information***by*Guiseppe Moscarini & Francesco Squintani**1488 Modeling Party Competition in General Elections***by*John E. Roemer**1487 Distribution and Politics: A Brief History and Prospect***by*John E. Roemer**1486 Empirical Similarity***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler**1485 Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function***by*Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1484 Rationality of Belief. Or: Why Bayesianism is Neither Necessary nor Sufficient for Rationality***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler**1483 Toward An Economic Theory of Dysfunctional Identity***by*Hanming Fang & Glenn C. Loury**1481 Network Markets and Consumers Coordination***by*Attila Ambrus & Rossella Argenziano**1480 Effective Labor Regulation and Microeconomic Flexibility***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin N. Cowan & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Alejandro Micco**1479R Coordination Failure in Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring***by*George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris**1479 Coordination Failure in Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring***by*George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris**1478 Xenophobia and Distribution in France: A Politico-economic Analysis***by*John E. Roemer & Karen Van der Straeten**1477B Impartiality and Priority. Part 2: A Characterization with Solidarity***by*Juan Moreno-Ternero & John E. Roemer**1477A Impartiality and Priority. Part 1: The Veil of Ignorance***by*Juan Moreno-Ternero & John E. Roemer**1476 Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock**1475 Uniform Limit Theory for Stationary Autoregression***by*Liudas Giraitis & Peter C.B. Phillips**1474 Expansions for Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimators of the Fractional Difference Parameter***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1473 Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods***by*Rustam Ibragimov & Peter C.B. Phillips**1472 Challenges of Trending Time Series Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1471 Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations from a Unit Root***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos**1470 HAC Estimation by Automated Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1469 Automated Discovery in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1468R Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1468 Non-Monotone Liquidity Under-Supply***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1467 Grading Exams: 100, 99, ..., 1 or A, B, C? Incentives in Games of Status***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1466R Competition, Consumer Welfare and Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1466 The Social Cost of Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1465 Time-inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY***by*Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman**1464 An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence***by*Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang**1463R Monopoly Pricing of Experience Goods***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1462 Racism and Redistribution in the United States: A Solution to the Problem of American Exceptionalism***by*Woojin Lee & John E. Roemer**1461 Radical Financial Innovation***by*Robert J. Shiller**1460 Gold, Fiat and Credit. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit, Part II***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1459 Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth***by*Robert J. Shiller**1458 Neighborhood Complexes and Generating Functions for Affine Semigroups***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Kevin M. Woods**1457 Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement***by*William D. Nordhaus**1456 Three Strikes and You're Out: Reply to Cooper and Willis***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1455 A Consumable Money. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit: Part I***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1454 A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability***by*Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang**1453 Smoothed Empirical Likelihood Methods for Quantile Regression Models***by*Yoon-Jae Whang**1452 Using Subspace Methods for Estimating ARMA Models for Multivariate Time Series with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Innovations***by*Dietmar Bauer**1451 Purification in the Infinitely-Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma***by*V. Bhaskar & George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris

### 2003

**1450 Does Prison Harden Inmates? A Discontinuity-based Approach***by*M. Keith Chen & Jesse M. Shapiro**1449 Dollar Denominated Debt and Optimal Security Design***by*John Geanakoplos & Felix Kubler**1448 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements and the Banzhaf Index***by*Thomas Quint**1447 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements in Simple Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1446 A Behavioral Model of Bargaining with Endogenous Types***by*Dilip Abreu & David Pearce**1445 Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions***by*Philip A. Haile & Han Hong & Matthew Shum**1444 Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?***by*Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher**1443 A Double Auction Market: Teaching, Experiment and Theory***by*Martin Shubik**1442 The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America***by*Robert J. Shiller**1441R Optimal Provision of Multiple Excludable Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1441 An Efficiency Rationale for Bundling of Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1440 To Bundle or Not to Bundle***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1439 The Edgeworth, Cournot and Walrasian Cores of an Economy***by*Martin Shubik**1438 Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1437 Long Run Variance Estimation Using Steep Origin Kernels without Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1436 Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation***by*Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young**1435 Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron & Peter C.B. Phillips**1434 Liquidity Black Holes***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1433R Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1433 Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1432 On the Empirical Content of Quantal Response Equilibrium***by*Philip A. Haile & Ali Hortacsu & Grigory Kosenok**1431 Uniqueness of Equilibrium in the Multi-Country Ricardo Model***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Wilson, Charles A. Wilson**1430 Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1429 The Ideal Inflation Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest in an Overlapping Generations World***by*John Geanakoplos**1428 Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1427R Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1427 Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1426R The Computation of Counterfactual Equilibria in Homothetic Walrasian Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1426 Indeterminacy, Nonparametric Calibration and Counterfactual Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1425 Fundamental R&D Spillovers and the Internationalization of a FirmÃŒs Research Activities***by*Bernard Franck & Robert Owen**1424 The Harmonic Fisher Equation and the Inflationary Bias of Real Uncertainty***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & John Geanakoplos**1423 Multidimensional Private Value Auctions***by*Hanming Fang & Stephen Morris**1422 Morale Hazard***by*Hanming Fang & Giuseppe Moscarini**1421R Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1421 Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1420 Strategic Freedom, Constraint, and Symmetry in One-period Markets with Cash and Credit Payment***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1419 Structure, Clearinghouses and Symmetry***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1418 Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction***by*John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1417 Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments***by*Chao, John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1416 On Houseswapping, the Strict Core, Segmentation, and Linear Programming***by*Thomas Quint & Jun Wake**1415 Two New Proofs of Afriat's Theorem***by*Anna Fostel & Herbert E. Scarf & Michael J. Todd**1414 On Local and Network Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1413 Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance: Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales***by*Michael R. Powers & David M. Schizer & Martin Shubik**1412 Dynamic Price Competition***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1411 Committee Design in the Presence of Communication***by*Dino Gerardi & Leeat Yariv**1410 Indeterminacy of Citizen-Candidate Equilibrium***by*John E. Roemer**1409 Political Equilibrium With Private or/and Public Campaign Finance: A Comparison Of Institutions***by*John E. Roemer**1408 Eclectic Distributional Ethics***by*John E. Roemer**1407 Consistent HAC Estimation and Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels with No Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1406 Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets***by*Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1405 Communication and Monetary Policy***by*Jeffrey D. Amado & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1404 End-of-Sample Cointegration Breakdown Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Jae-Young Kim**1403 Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals***by*Galina Hale**1402 Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1401 Coordination, Communication and Common Knowledge: A Retrospective on Electronic Mail Game***by*Stephen Morris**1400 Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1399R Rationalizing and Curve-Fitting Demand Data with Quasilinear Utilities***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1399 The Strong Law of Demand***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1398 The Elusive Empirical Shadow of Growth Convergence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1397 Laws and Limits of Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1396 Who Refers to Whom: A Study of Research References and the Relationship between Research Reports and Final Publication***by*Samuel McCarthy & Martin Shubik & Jianfeng Yu**1395RR Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1395R Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1395 Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models***by*Donald J. Brown & Marten H. Wegkamp**1394 Generalized Potentials and Robust Sets of Equilibria***by*Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1393 Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1392 Jackknifing Bond Option Prices***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu**1391 Fractional Brownian Motion as a Differentiable Generalized Gaussian Process***by*Victoria Zinde-Walsh & Peter C.B. Phillips**1390 GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1389 Monetary Equilibrium with Missing Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos

### 2002

**1388 Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s***by*Ray C. Fair**1387 The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq***by*William D. Nordhaus**1386 One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market***by*Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller**1385 From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance***by*Robert J. Shiller**1384 Adaptive Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yixiao Sun**1383 Fairness, Reciprocity, and Wage Rigidity***by*Truman F. Bewley**1382 Risk Aversion and Stock Prices***by*Ray C. Fair**1381 College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency***by*Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster**1380R Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1380 Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1379 The Value of Benchmarking***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege**1378 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Long-memory Gaussian Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1377 Best Response Equivalence***by*Morris, Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1376 Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market***by*George Hall & John Rust**1375 More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors***by*Zhijie Xiao & Oliver Linton & Raymond J. Carroll & E. Mammen**1374 Error Bounds and Asymptotic Expansions for Toeplitz Product Functionals of Unbounded Spectra***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1373 The KPSS Test with Seasonal Dummies***by*Sainan Jin & Peter C.B. Phillips**1372 Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems***by*Steven Berry & Oliver Linton & Ariel Pakes**1371 Unmediated Communication in Games with Complete and Incomplete Information***by*Dino Gerardi**1370 The Block-block Bootstrap: Improved Asymptotic Refinements***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1369 End-of-Sample Instability Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1368 The Mildest Recession: Outputs, Profits, and Stock Prices as the U.S. Emerges from the 2001 Recession***by*William D. Nordhaus**1367 Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1366 Nonlinear Log-Periodogram Regression for Perturbed Fractional Processes***by*Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips**1365 Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1364 Nonstationary Discrete Choice***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1363 Efficient Regression in Time Series Partial Linear Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Binbin Guo & Zhijie Xiao**1362 Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1361 Valid Edgeworth Expansions for the Whittle Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stationary Long-memory Gaussian Time Series***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1360 From Nash to Walras via Shapley-Shubik***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1359 Partially Linear Models with Unit Roots***by*Ted Juhl & Zhijie Xiao**1358 Competition In or For the Field: Which Is Better?***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1357 Macroeconomic Strategy in Wartime***by*James Tobin**1356 Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach***by*Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Whang, Yoon-Jae**1355 The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards***by*William D. Nordhaus**1354 Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1353 How to Auction an Essential Facility When Underhand Integration Is Possible***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1352 I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency***by*Leeat Yariv**1351 Valid Asymptotic Expansions for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameter of a Stationary, Gaussian, Strongly Dependent Process***by*Offer Lieberman & Judith Rousseau & David M. Zucker**1350 An Optimal Fair Job Assignment Problem***by*Zaifu Yang**1031R Is Gold an Efficient Store of Value?***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik

### 2001

**1349 Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate GARCH Processes***by*F. Comte & Offer Lieberman**1348 Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Fractional Guassian Processes***by*Offer Lieberman**1347 On Fair Allocations and Indivisibilities***by*Ning Sun & Zaifu Yang**1346R2 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1346 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1345 Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**1344 Believe and Let Believe: Axiomatic Foundations for Belief Dependent Utility Functionals***by*Leeat Yariv**1343 Money and the Monetization of Credit***by*Martin Shubik**1342 A Derivation of Expected Utility Maximization in the Context of a Game***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1341 Subjective Distributions***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1340 Cognitive Foundations of Probability***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1339 Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1338 The Optimal Concentration of Creditors***by*Ivo Welch & Bris, Arturo**1337 Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market***by*Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes**1336 Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities***by*David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner**1335 Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market***by*Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller**1334 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Markov Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1333 Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & Geanakoplos, John**1332 Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models***by*Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips**1331 Nonlinear Instrumental Variable Estimation of an Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park & Yoosoon Chang**1330 Bootstrapping Spurious Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1329 A CUSUM Test for Cointegration Using Regression Residuals***by*Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1328 Egalitarianism against the Veil of Ignorance***by*John E. Roemer**1327 Value and Politics***by*John E. Roemer**1326 What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children,..***by*John E. Roemer & Roberto Veneziani**1325 The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited***by*Ivo Welch**1324 The Progress of Computing***by*William D. Nordhaus**1323 Information Structures in Optimal Auctions***by*Dirk Bergemann & Martin Pesendorfer**1322 Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and Social Choice***by*Michael Mandler**1321 Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War***by*George J. Hall