# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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### 2005

**1498 The Demand for Information: More Heat than Light***by*Jussi Keppo & Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith**1497 Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy***by*Ray C. Fair

### 2004

**1496 Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data***by*Ray C. Fair**1495 Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess***by*Ray C. Fair**1494 Retrospective on the Postwar Productivity Slowdown***by*William D. Nordhaus**1493 Rule-Based and Case-Based Reasoning in Housing Prices***by*Gabrielle Gayer & Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman**1492 Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies***by*Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler & Dov Samet**1491 Fact-Free Learning***by*Enriqueta Aragones & Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler**1490 The Folk Theorem in Dynastic Repeated Games***by*Luca Anderlini & Dino Gerardi & Roger Lagunoff**1489 Competitive Experimentation with Private Information***by*Guiseppe Moscarini & Francesco Squintani**1488 Modeling Party Competition in General Elections***by*John E. Roemer**1487 Distribution and Politics: A Brief History and Prospect***by*John E. Roemer**1486 Empirical Similarity***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler**1485 Axiomatization of an Exponential Similarity Function***by*Antoine Billot & Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1484 Rationality of Belief. Or: Why Bayesianism is Neither Necessary nor Sufficient for Rationality***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler**1483 Toward An Economic Theory of Dysfunctional Identity***by*Hanming Fang & Glenn C. Loury**1481 Network Markets and Consumers Coordination***by*Attila Ambrus & Rossella Argenziano**1480 Effective Labor Regulation and Microeconomic Flexibility***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Kevin N. Cowan & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Alejandro Micco**1479R Coordination Failure in Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring***by*George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris**1479 Coordination Failure in Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring***by*George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris**1478 Xenophobia and Distribution in France: A Politico-economic Analysis***by*John E. Roemer & Karen Van der Straeten**1477B Impartiality and Priority. Part 2: A Characterization with Solidarity***by*Juan Moreno-Ternero & John E. Roemer**1477A Impartiality and Priority. Part 1: The Veil of Ignorance***by*Juan Moreno-Ternero & John E. Roemer**1476 Optimal Invariant Similar Tests for Instrumental Variables Regression***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Marcelo J. Moreira & James H. Stock**1475 Uniform Limit Theory for Stationary Autoregression***by*Liudas Giraitis & Peter C.B. Phillips**1474 Expansions for Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimators of the Fractional Difference Parameter***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1473 Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods***by*Rustam Ibragimov & Peter C.B. Phillips**1472 Challenges of Trending Time Series Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1471 Limit Theory for Moderate Deviations from a Unit Root***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos**1470 HAC Estimation by Automated Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1469 Automated Discovery in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1468R Collateral Restrictions and Liquidity Under-Supply: A Simple Model***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1468 Non-Monotone Liquidity Under-Supply***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1467 Grading Exams: 100, 99, ..., 1 or A, B, C? Incentives in Games of Status***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1466R Competition, Consumer Welfare and Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1466 The Social Cost of Monopoly Power***by*Donald J. Brown & G.A. Wood**1465 Time-inconsistency and Welfare Program Participation: Evidence from the NLSY***by*Hanming Fang & Dan Silverman**1464 An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence***by*Shamena Anwar & Hanming Fang**1463R Monopoly Pricing of Experience Goods***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1462 Racism and Redistribution in the United States: A Solution to the Problem of American Exceptionalism***by*Woojin Lee & John E. Roemer**1461 Radical Financial Innovation***by*Robert J. Shiller**1460 Gold, Fiat and Credit. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit, Part II***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1459 Household Reaction to Changes in Housing Wealth***by*Robert J. Shiller**1458 Neighborhood Complexes and Generating Functions for Affine Semigroups***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Kevin M. Woods**1457 Schumpeterian Profits in the American Economy: Theory and Measurement***by*William D. Nordhaus**1456 Three Strikes and You're Out: Reply to Cooper and Willis***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1455 A Consumable Money. An Elementary Discussion of Commodity Money, Fiat Money and Credit: Part I***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1454 A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability***by*Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang**1453 Smoothed Empirical Likelihood Methods for Quantile Regression Models***by*Yoon-Jae Whang**1452 Using Subspace Methods for Estimating ARMA Models for Multivariate Time Series with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Innovations***by*Dietmar Bauer**1451 Purification in the Infinitely-Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma***by*V. Bhaskar & George J. Mailath & Stephen Morris

### 2003

**1450 Does Prison Harden Inmates? A Discontinuity-based Approach***by*M. Keith Chen & Jesse M. Shapiro**1449 Dollar Denominated Debt and Optimal Security Design***by*John Geanakoplos & Felix Kubler**1448 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements and the Banzhaf Index***by*Thomas Quint**1447 Absenteeism, Substitutes, and Complements in Simple Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1446 A Behavioral Model of Bargaining with Endogenous Types***by*Dilip Abreu & David Pearce**1445 Nonparametric Tests for Common Values in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions***by*Philip A. Haile & Han Hong & Matthew Shum**1444 Can One Estimate the Conditional Distribution of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?***by*Hannes Leeb & Benedikt M. Potscher**1443 A Double Auction Market: Teaching, Experiment and Theory***by*Martin Shubik**1442 The Invention of Inflation-Indexed Bonds in Early America***by*Robert J. Shiller**1441R Optimal Provision of Multiple Excludable Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1441 An Efficiency Rationale for Bundling of Public Goods***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1440 To Bundle or Not to Bundle***by*Hanming Fang & Peter Norman**1439 The Edgeworth, Cournot and Walrasian Cores of an Economy***by*Martin Shubik**1438 Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1437 Long Run Variance Estimation Using Steep Origin Kernels without Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1436 Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation***by*Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young**1435 Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron & Peter C.B. Phillips**1434 Liquidity Black Holes***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1433R Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1433 Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises***by*Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris**1432 On the Empirical Content of Quantal Response Equilibrium***by*Philip A. Haile & Ali Hortacsu & Grigory Kosenok**1431 Uniqueness of Equilibrium in the Multi-Country Ricardo Model***by*Herbert E. Scarf & Wilson, Charles A. Wilson**1430 Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models***by*Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel**1429 The Ideal Inflation Indexed Bond and Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest in an Overlapping Generations World***by*John Geanakoplos**1428 Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1427R Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1427 Real Determinacy with Nominal Assets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1426R The Computation of Counterfactual Equilibria in Homothetic Walrasian Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1426 Indeterminacy, Nonparametric Calibration and Counterfactual Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Ravi Kannan**1425 Fundamental R&D Spillovers and the Internationalization of a FirmÃŒs Research Activities***by*Bernard Franck & Robert Owen**1424 The Harmonic Fisher Equation and the Inflationary Bias of Real Uncertainty***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & John Geanakoplos**1423 Multidimensional Private Value Auctions***by*Hanming Fang & Stephen Morris**1422 Morale Hazard***by*Hanming Fang & Giuseppe Moscarini**1421R Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1421 Robust Mechanism Design***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1420 Strategic Freedom, Constraint, and Symmetry in One-period Markets with Cash and Credit Payment***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1419 Structure, Clearinghouses and Symmetry***by*Martin Shubik & Eric Smith**1418 Alternative Approximations of the Bias and MSE of the IV Estimator under Weak Identification with an Application to Bias Correction***by*John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1417 Consistent Estimation with a Large Number of Weak Instruments***by*Chao, John Chao & Norman R. Swanson**1416 On Houseswapping, the Strict Core, Segmentation, and Linear Programming***by*Thomas Quint & Jun Wake**1415 Two New Proofs of Afriat's Theorem***by*Anna Fostel & Herbert E. Scarf & Michael J. Todd**1414 On Local and Network Games***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1413 Market Bubbles and Wasteful Avoidance: Tax and Regulatory Constraints on Short Sales***by*Michael R. Powers & David M. Schizer & Martin Shubik**1412 Dynamic Price Competition***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1411 Committee Design in the Presence of Communication***by*Dino Gerardi & Leeat Yariv**1410 Indeterminacy of Citizen-Candidate Equilibrium***by*John E. Roemer**1409 Political Equilibrium With Private or/and Public Campaign Finance: A Comparison Of Institutions***by*John E. Roemer**1408 Eclectic Distributional Ethics***by*John E. Roemer**1407 Consistent HAC Estimation and Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels with No Truncation***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yixiao Sun & Sainan Jin**1406 Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets***by*Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1405 Communication and Monetary Policy***by*Jeffrey D. Amado & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1404 End-of-Sample Cointegration Breakdown Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Jae-Young Kim**1403 Bonds or Loans? The Effect of Macroeconomic Fundamentals***by*Galina Hale**1402 Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1401 Coordination, Communication and Common Knowledge: A Retrospective on Electronic Mail Game***by*Stephen Morris**1400 Catalytic Finance: When Does It Work?***by*Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin**1399R Rationalizing and Curve-Fitting Demand Data with Quasilinear Utilities***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1399 The Strong Law of Demand***by*Donald J. Brown & Caterina Calsamiglia**1398 The Elusive Empirical Shadow of Growth Convergence***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1397 Laws and Limits of Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1396 Who Refers to Whom: A Study of Research References and the Relationship between Research Reports and Final Publication***by*Samuel McCarthy & Martin Shubik & Jianfeng Yu**1395RR Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1395R Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models: Theory and Application***by*Donald J. Brown & Rahul Deb & Marten H. Wegkamp**1395 Tests of Independence in Separable Econometric Models***by*Donald J. Brown & Marten H. Wegkamp**1394 Generalized Potentials and Robust Sets of Equilibria***by*Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1393 Vision and Influence in Econometrics: John Denis Sargan***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1392 Jackknifing Bond Option Prices***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu**1391 Fractional Brownian Motion as a Differentiable Generalized Gaussian Process***by*Victoria Zinde-Walsh & Peter C.B. Phillips**1390 GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data***by*Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips**1389 Monetary Equilibrium with Missing Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos

### 2002

**1388 Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s***by*Ray C. Fair**1387 The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq***by*William D. Nordhaus**1386 One Simple Test of Samuelson's Dictum for the Stock Market***by*Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller**1385 From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance***by*Robert J. Shiller**1384 Adaptive Local Polynomial Whittle Estimation of Long-range Dependence***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Yixiao Sun**1383 Fairness, Reciprocity, and Wage Rigidity***by*Truman F. Bewley**1382 Risk Aversion and Stock Prices***by*Ray C. Fair**1381 College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency***by*Ray C. Fair & John F. Oster**1380R Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1380 Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market***by*John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii**1379 The Value of Benchmarking***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege**1378 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Long-memory Gaussian Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1377 Best Response Equivalence***by*Morris, Stephen Morris & Takashi Ui**1376 Econometric Methods for Endogenously Sampled Time Series: The Case of Commodity Price Speculation in the Steel Market***by*George Hall & John Rust**1375 More Efficient Kernel Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors***by*Zhijie Xiao & Oliver Linton & Raymond J. Carroll & E. Mammen**1374 Error Bounds and Asymptotic Expansions for Toeplitz Product Functionals of Unbounded Spectra***by*Offer Lieberman & Peter C.B. Phillips**1373 The KPSS Test with Seasonal Dummies***by*Sainan Jin & Peter C.B. Phillips**1372 Limit Theorems for Estimating the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand Systems***by*Steven Berry & Oliver Linton & Ariel Pakes**1371 Unmediated Communication in Games with Complete and Incomplete Information***by*Dino Gerardi**1370 The Block-block Bootstrap: Improved Asymptotic Refinements***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1369 End-of-Sample Instability Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1368 The Mildest Recession: Outputs, Profits, and Stock Prices as the U.S. Emerges from the 2001 Recession***by*William D. Nordhaus**1367 Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration***by*Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1366 Nonlinear Log-Periodogram Regression for Perturbed Fractional Processes***by*Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips**1365 Dynamics of the Federal Funds Target Rate: A Nonstationary Discrete Choice Approach***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1364 Nonstationary Discrete Choice***by*Ling Hu & Peter C.B. Phillips**1363 Efficient Regression in Time Series Partial Linear Models***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Binbin Guo & Zhijie Xiao**1362 Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence***by*Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1361 Valid Edgeworth Expansions for the Whittle Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Stationary Long-memory Gaussian Time Series***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Offer Lieberman**1360 From Nash to Walras via Shapley-Shubik***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1359 Partially Linear Models with Unit Roots***by*Ted Juhl & Zhijie Xiao**1358 Competition In or For the Field: Which Is Better?***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1357 Macroeconomic Strategy in Wartime***by*James Tobin**1356 Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance: A Subsampling Approach***by*Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Whang, Yoon-Jae**1355 The Health of Nations: The Contribution of Improved Health to Living Standards***by*William D. Nordhaus**1354 Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1353 How to Auction an Essential Facility When Underhand Integration Is Possible***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1352 I'll See It When I Believe It - A Simple Model of Cognitive Consistency***by*Leeat Yariv**1351 Valid Asymptotic Expansions for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameter of a Stationary, Gaussian, Strongly Dependent Process***by*Offer Lieberman & Judith Rousseau & David M. Zucker**1350 An Optimal Fair Job Assignment Problem***by*Zaifu Yang**1031R Is Gold an Efficient Store of Value?***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik

### 2001

**1349 Asymptotic Theory for Multivariate GARCH Processes***by*F. Comte & Offer Lieberman**1348 Penalised Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Fractional Guassian Processes***by*Offer Lieberman**1347 On Fair Allocations and Indivisibilities***by*Ning Sun & Zaifu Yang**1346R2 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1346 Competitive Pooling: Rothschild-Stiglitz Reconsidered***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1345 Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**1344 Believe and Let Believe: Axiomatic Foundations for Belief Dependent Utility Functionals***by*Leeat Yariv**1343 Money and the Monetization of Credit***by*Martin Shubik**1342 A Derivation of Expected Utility Maximization in the Context of a Game***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1341 Subjective Distributions***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1340 Cognitive Foundations of Probability***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1339 Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic Approach***by*Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler**1338 The Optimal Concentration of Creditors***by*Ivo Welch & Bris, Arturo**1337 Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market***by*Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes**1336 Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities***by*David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner**1335 Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market***by*Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller**1334 Higher-order Improvements of the Parametric Bootstrap for Markov Processes***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1333 Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth & Geanakoplos, John**1332 Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models***by*Federico M. Bandi & Peter C.B. Phillips**1331 Nonlinear Instrumental Variable Estimation of an Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park & Yoosoon Chang**1330 Bootstrapping Spurious Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1329 A CUSUM Test for Cointegration Using Regression Residuals***by*Zhijie Xiao & Peter C.B. Phillips**1328 Egalitarianism against the Veil of Ignorance***by*John E. Roemer**1327 Value and Politics***by*John E. Roemer**1326 What We Owe Our Children, They Their Children,..***by*John E. Roemer & Roberto Veneziani**1325 The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited***by*Ivo Welch**1324 The Progress of Computing***by*William D. Nordhaus**1323 Information Structures in Optimal Auctions***by*Dirk Bergemann & Martin Pesendorfer**1322 Compromises Between Cardinality and Ordinality in Preference Theory and Social Choice***by*Michael Mandler**1321 Exchange Rates and Casualties During the First World War***by*George J. Hall**1320 Accessible Pareto-Improvements: Using Market Information to Reform Inefficiencies***by*Michael Mandler**1319 If You're So Smart, Why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets***by*Larry Blume & David Easley**1318 Perfectly Fair Allocations with Indivisibilities***by*Ning Sun & Zaifu Yang**1317 A Practical Competitive Market Model for Indivisible Commo***by*Zaifu Yang**1316R2 Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1316 Liquidity, Default and Crashes: Endogenous Contracts in General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1315 Insurance Contracts Designed by Competitive Pooling***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1314R Social Security Investment in Equities***by*Peter Diamond & John Geanakoplos