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Econometric Measurement of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

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Abstract

Prominent among the many contributions that economics has made to humanity are the ones we witness daily in the normal operations of our national economies and our �nancial systems. Less prominent is the work in econometrics that is largely done in universities developing theories and techniques, conducting empirical research, and analyzing the effects of economic policies and social programs. Econometrics is the tool that forces our ideas about the economy and society to face the reality of observation. Its methods empower empirical modeling and evidence-based studies throughout the social and business sciences. This graduation speech recounts some experiences and lessons learnt in the author�s journey into the world of econometric research. Journeys like this begin with initial conditions rooted in our early lives and education. Teachers, colleagues, students, contemplation, and aspiration all influence our thinking and determine the directions we take in our research. This story is a personal account of the initial conditions and unit roots of experience that have had an enduring impact on my work and career as an econometrician.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips, 2017. "Econometric Measurement of Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2094, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    3. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 95-131, April.
    4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    5. Meinrat O. Andreae & Chris D. Jones & Peter M. Cox, 2005. "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future," Nature, Nature, vol. 435(7046), pages 1187-1190, June.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    7. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 468-497, December.
    8. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    9. Ibragimov, Rustam & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Regression Asymptotics Using Martingale Convergence Methods," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 888-947, August.
    10. Magnus, Jan R. & Melenberg, Bertrand & Muris, Chris, 2011. "Global Warming and Local Dimming: The Statistical Evidence," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 106(494), pages 452-464.
    11. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kahn, Matthew E. & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Ng, Ryan N.C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi & Yang, Jui-Chung, 2021. "Long-term macroeconomic effects of climate change: A cross-country analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Half century of econometrics; Initial conditions; Unit Roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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