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Real Time Monitoring of Asset Markets: Bubbles and Crises

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Abstract

While each financial crisis has its own characteristics, there is now widespread recognition that crises arising from sources such as financial speculation and excessive credit creation do inflict harm on the real economy. Detecting speculative market conditions and ballooning credit risk in real time is therefore of prime importance in the complex exercises of market surveillance, risk management, and policy action. This chapter provides an R implementation of the popular real-time monitoring strategy proposed by Phillips, Shi and Yu in the International Economic Review (2015), along with a new bootstrap procedure designed to mitigate the potential impact of heteroskedasticity and to effect family-wise size control in recursive testing algorithms. This methodology has been shown effective for bubble and crisis detection and is now widely used by academic researchers, central bank economists, and fiscal regulators. We illustrate the effectiveness of this procedure with applications to the S&P financial market and the European sovereign debt sector using the psymonitor R package developed in conjunction with this chapter.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips & Shuping Shi, 2018. "Real Time Monitoring of Asset Markets: Bubbles and Crises," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2152, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2152
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2019. "Contagion Testing in Embryonic Markets under Alternative Stressful US Market Scenarios," CESifo Working Paper Series 8029, CESifo.
    2. Enoksen, F.A. & Landsnes, Ch.J. & Lučivjanská, K. & Molnár, P., 2020. "Understanding risk of bubbles in cryptocurrencies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 129-144.
    3. Xun Zhang & Fengbin Lu & Rui Tao & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "The time-varying causal relationship between the Bitcoin market and internet attention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Jorge M. Uribe & Natalia Restrepo & Montserrat Guillen, 2021. ""Price Bubbles in Lithium Markets around the World"," IREA Working Papers 202110, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bubbles; Crises; Real-time detection; Recursive evolving test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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