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New evidence for explosive behavior of commodity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jeanne Diesteldorf
  • Sarah Meyer
  • Jan Voelzke

Abstract

Over the past decade, the academic literature has engaged in a lively discussion about speculative bubbles in commodity markets. A number of papers have empirically investigated explosive behavior, albeit employing different econometric approaches that examine univariate time series for the existence of bubbles. Largely, these individual tests have been applied on a set of univariate time series such as stock indices or commodity prices, ignoring the multiple testing nature of the problem. Departing from there, we examine explosive behavior in commodity futures markets, by employing a panel-data set containing the ten most liquid agricultural futures contracts traded in the US to conduct the Generalised Sub-ADF test by Phillips et al. (2015). We aggregate individual test-results using a stagewise rejective multiple test procedure. Overall, our results show evidence for several periods of explosive behavior in the markets for wheat, cattle, cocoa, coffee and cotton over the past 35 years. Our paper is the first to employ this approach on a panel data set, thereby solving econometric shortcomings of previously published work in the extant literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanne Diesteldorf & Sarah Meyer & Jan Voelzke, 2016. "New evidence for explosive behavior of commodity prices," CQE Working Papers 5016, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  • Handle: RePEc:cqe:wpaper:5016
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    File URL: https://www.wiwi.uni-muenster.de/cqe/sites/cqe/files/CQE_Paper/CQE_WP_50_2016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adämmer, Philipp & Bohl, Martin T., 2015. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 67-76.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    3. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.
    4. Xiaoli L. Etienne & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2015. "Price Explosiveness, Speculation, and Grain Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 65-87.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    6. Sarah Meyer & Mark Trede, 2016. "Explosive earnings dynamics: Whoever has will be given more," CQE Working Papers 4716, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    7. Xiaoliang Liu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2013. "Testing for speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: a regime switching approach," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 73(1), pages 179-200, May.
    8. Caspi, Itamar, 2013. "Rtadf: Testing for Bubbles with EViews," MPRA Paper 58791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Sep 2014.
    9. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2014. "Bubbles in food commodity markets: Four decades of evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 129-155.
    10. Luciano Gutierrez, 2013. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity markets-super- †," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(2), pages 217-238, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fatima, Hira & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Exuberance Behavior in Agricultural Commodities of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Jan Voelzke & Jeanne Diesteldorf & Fabian Goessling & Till Weigt, 2017. "Investors' favourite - A different look at valuing individual labour income," CQE Working Papers 6017, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Voelzke, Jan & Gößling, Fabian & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Weigt, Till, 2017. "Investors' favourite - A different look at valuing individual labour income," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168065, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Ayben Koy, 2022. "Regime Switching Mechanism during Energy Futures Price Bubbles," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 373-382.
    6. Koy, Ayben, 2018. "Testing Multi Bubbles for Commodity Derivative Markets: A Study on MCX," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 291-299, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative bubbles; Derivatives; Commodity markets; Panel-test; GSADF-test;
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