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Dynamic Random Utility

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Abstract

Under dynamic random utility, an agent (or population of agents) solves a dynamic decision problem subject to evolving private information. We analyze the fully general and non-parametric model, axiomatically characterizing the implied dynamic stochastic choice behavior. A key new feature relative to static or i.i.d. versions of the model is that when private information displays serial correlation, choices appear history dependent: different sequences of past choices reflect different private information of the agent, and hence typically lead to different distributions of current choices. Our axiomatization imposes discipline on the form of history dependence that can arise under arbitrary serial correlation. Dynamic stochastic choice data lets us distinguish central models that coincide in static domains, in particular private information in the form of utility shocks vs. learning, and to study inherently dynamic phenomena such as choice persistence. We relate our model to specifications of utility shocks widely used in empirical work, highlighting new modeling tradeoffs in the dynamic discrete choice literature. Finally, we extend our characterization to allow past consumption to directly affect the agent�s utility process, accommodating models of habit formation and experimentation.

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  • Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Tomasz Strzalecki, 2017. "Dynamic Random Utility," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2092, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2092
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    Cited by:

    1. Turansick, Christopher, 2022. "Identification in the random utility model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    2. Carlos Alós-Ferrer & Georg D. Granic, 2023. "Does choice change preferences? An incentivized test of the mere choice effect," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(3), pages 499-521, July.
    3. Edi Karni, 2024. "Irresolute choice behavior," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 20(1), pages 70-87, March.
    4. Fedor Sandomirskiy & Omer Tamuz, 2023. "Decomposable Stochastic Choice," Papers 2312.04827, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    5. S. Cerreia-Vioglio & F. Maccheroni & M. Marinacci & A. Rustichini, 2017. "Multinomial logit processes and preference discovery: inside and outside the black box," Working Papers 615, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Piermont, Evan, 2022. "Disentangling strict and weak choice in random expected utility models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. Xie, Erhao, 2021. "Empirical properties and identification of adaptive learning models in behavioral game theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 798-821.
    8. Yang, Erya & Kopylov, Igor, 2023. "Random quasi-linear utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Pennesi, Daniele, 2021. "Intertemporal discrete choice," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 690-706.
    10. Jetlir Duraj & Yi-Hsuan Lin, 2022. "Identification and welfare evaluation in sequential sampling models," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 92(2), pages 407-431, March.
    11. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Multinomial logit processes and preference discovery: outside and inside the black box," Working Papers 663, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Paramahansa Pramanik & Alan M. Polansky, 2023. "Scoring a Goal Optimally in a Soccer Game Under Liouville-Like Quantum Gravity Action," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-39, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic stochastic choice; Random utility; History dependence; Serially correlated utilities; Consumption persistence; Learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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