# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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**Series handle:**repec:cwl:cwldpp

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### 2011

**1817 Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation and Crises***by*Robert J. Shiller**1816 Information Aggregation, Investment, and Managerial Incentives***by*Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski**1815R Similar-on-the-Boundary Tests for Moment Inequalities Exist, But Have Poor Power***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1815 Similar-on-the-Boundary Tests for Moment Inequalities Exist, But Have Poor Power***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1814 The Demonetization of Gold: Transactions and the Change in Control***by*Thomas Quint & Martin Shubik**1813 Generic Results for Establishing the Asymptotic Size of Confidence Sets and Tests***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng & Patrik Guggenberger**1812R A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1812 A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1811 Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Larry Samuelson & David Schmeidler**1810 Pricing and Investments in Matching Markets***by*George J. Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson**1809 Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1809R Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1808 The Present and Future of Game Theory***by*Martin Shubik**1807 What It Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem***by*Ray C. Fair**1806R Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand***by*Steven Berry & Amit Gandhi & Philip Haile**1806 Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand***by*Steven Berry & Amit Gandhi & Philip Haile**1805 Mean-Dispersion Preferences and Constant Absolute Uncertainty Aversion***by*Simon Grant & Ben Polak**1804 Penalized Sieve Estimation and Inference of Semi-Nonparametric Dynamic Models: A Selective Review***by*Xiaohong Chen**1803 Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators***by*Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn**1802 Dynamic Strategic Information Transmission***by*Mikhail Golosov & Vasiliki Skreta & Aleh Tsyvinski & Andrea Wilson**1801 Examples of L^2-Complete and Boundedly-Complete Distributions***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**1800 Endogenous Leverage: VaR and Beyond***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1799 Empirical Likelihood for Regression Discontinuity Design***by*Taisuke Otsu & Ke-Li Xu**1798 Large Deviations of Realized Volatility***by*Shin Kanaya & Taisuke Otsu**1797 Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity***by*Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Amanda Kowalski**1796 Robustness of Bootstrap in Instrumental Variable Regression***by*Lorenzo Camponovo & Taisuke Otsu**1795R Local Identification of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models***by*Xiaohong Chen & Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Whitney Newey**1795 Local Identification of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models***by*Xiaohong Chen & Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Whitney Newey**1794 Continuous Workout Mortgages***by*Robert J. Shiller & Rafal M. Wojakowski & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Mark B. Shackleton**1793 Breakdown Point Theory for Implied Probability Bootstrap***by*Lorenzo Camponovo & Taisuke Otsu**1792 Empirical Likelihood for Nonparametric Additive Models***by*Taisuke Otsu**1791 Second-order Refinement of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Overidentifying Restrictions***by*Yukitoshi Matsushita & Taisuke Otsu**1789 A Simple Test for Identification in GMM under Conditional Moment Restrictions***by*Francesco Bravo & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Taisuke Otsu**1789 Hodges-Lehmann Optimality for Testing Moment***by*Ivan Canay & Taisuke Otsu**1788 Economists as Worldly Philosophers***by*Robert J. Shiller & Virginia M. Shiller**1787R Identification in a Class of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile**1787 Identification in a Class of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile**1786 Cost Innovation: Schumpeter and Equilibrium. Part 1. Robinson Crusoe***by*Martin Shubik & William Sudderth**1785 Moderate Deviations of Generalized Method of Moments and Empirical Likelihood Estimators***by*Taisuke Otsu**1784 Wealth Effects Revisited 1978-2009***by*Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller**1783 Large Deviations of Generalized Method of Moments and Empirical Likelihood Estimators***by*Taisuke Otsu**1782 Efficient Search by Committee***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1781 Folklore Theorems, Implicit Maps and New Unit Root Limit Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1780 First Difference MLE and Dynamic Panel Estimation***by*Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips**1779 Specification Testing for Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression***by*Qiying Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips**1778 Bias in Estimating Multivariate and Univariate Diffusions***by*Xiaohu Wang & Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu**1777 Inconsistent VAR Regression with Common Explosive Roots***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos**1776 A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation***by*Ray C. Fair

### 2010

**1772R3 Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris & Satoru Takahashi**1764R2 Should Auctions be Transparent?***by*Dirk Bergemann & Johannes Horner**1761R2 Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi**1775 Mechanism Design with Limited Information: The Case of Nonlinear Pricing***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ji Shen & Yun Xu & Edmund M. Yeh**1774 Revealed Preferences for Risk and Ambiguity***by*Donald J. Brown & Chandra Erdman & Kirsten Ling & Laurie Santos**1773R Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng**1773 Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xu Cheng**1772RR Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris & Satoru Takahashi**1772R Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris & Satoru Takahashi**1772 Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris & Satoru Takahashi**1771 The Mysteries of Trend***by*Peter C. B. Phillips**1770 Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles during the Subprime Crisis***by*Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu**1769 Semiparametric Estimation in Time Series of Simultaneous Equations***by*Jiti Gao & Peter C. B. Phillips**1768 Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression under Weak Identification***by*Xiaoxia Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips**1767 Identifying Finite Mixtures in Econometric Models***by*Marc Henry & Yuichi Kitamura & Bernard Salanie**1766 The Value of Luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics***by*Xi Chen & William D. Nordhaus**1765 Mediation and Peace***by*Johannes Horner & Massimo Morelli & Francesco Squintani**1764R Should Auctions be Transparent?***by*Dirk Bergemann & Johannes Horner**1764 Should Auctions be Transparent?***by*Dirk Bergemann & Johannes Horner**1763 History-Dependent Risk Attitude***by*David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen**1762RR Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1762R Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1762 Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?***by*Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos**1761R Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi**1761 Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Xiaoxia Shi**1760R The Role of Commitment in Bilateral Trade***by*Dino Gerardi & Johannes Horner & Lucas Maestri**1760 The Role of Commitment in Bilateral Trade***by*Dino Gerardi & Johannes Horner & Lucas Maestri**1759 Affective Decision-Making: A Theory of Optimism-Bias***by*Anat Bracha & Donald J. Brown**1758R Targeting in Advertising Markets: Implications for Offline vs. Online Media***by*Dirk Bergemann & Alessandro Bonatti**1758 Targeting in Advertising Markets: Implications for Offline vs. Online Media***by*Dirk Bergemann & Alessandro Bonatti**1757R Dynamic Auctions: A Survey***by*Dirk Bergemann & Maher Said**1757 Dynamic Auctions: A Survey***by*Dirk Bergemann & Maher Said**1756 Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill***by*Ray C. Fair**1755 Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation***by*Ray C. Fair**1754 Stochastic Search Equilibrium***by*Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay**1753 Introduction to Judgment Aggregation***by*Christian List & Ben Polak**1752 Pricing in Matching Markets***by*George J. Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson**1751 Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle***by*John Geanakoplos**1750 Two New Zealand Pioneer Econometricians***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**1749 Power Maximization and Size Control in Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Tests with Exponentiated Kernels***by*Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips & Sainan Jin**1748 Optimal Estimation under Nonstandard Conditions***by*Werner Ploberger & Peter C.B. Phillips**1747 X-Differencing and Dynamic Panel Model Estimation***by*Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1746 Uniform Asymptotic Normality in Stationary and Unit Root Autoregression***by*Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul**1745R Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility***by*Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos**1745 Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility***by*Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos**1744R Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip Haile**1744 Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip Haile**1697R Rationalizable Implementation***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris & Olivier Tercieux

### 2009

**1743R2 Selling Information***by*Johannes Horner & Andrzej Skrzypacz**1730R2 Default Penalty as a Selection Mechanism among Multiple Equilibria***by*Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder**1726R3 Incentives for Experimenting Agents***by*Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson**1726R2 Incentives for Experimenting Agents***by*Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson**1743R Selling Information***by*Johannes Horner & Andrzej Skrzypacz**1743 Selling Information***by*Johannes Horner & Andrzej Skrzypacz**1742 Recursive Methods in Discounted Stochastic Games: An Algorithm for delta Approaching 1 and a Folk Theorem***by*Johannes Horner & Takuo Sugaya & Satoru Takahashi & Nicolas Vieille**1741 A Specification Test for Instrumental Variables Regression with Many Instruments***by*Yoonseok Lee & Ryo Okui**1740 Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Treatment Effects***by*Sokbae Lee & Yoon-Jae Whang**1739 Belief-free Equilibria in Games with Incomplete Information: Characterization and Existence***by*Johannes Horner & Stefano Lovo & Tristan Tomala**1738 Biased Social Learning***by*Helios Herrera & Johannes Horner**1737 On a Markov Game with One-Sided Incomplete Information***by*Johannes Horner & Dinah Rosenberg & Eilon Solan & Nicolas Vieille**1736 Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information***by*Xavier Vives**1735 Breach, Remedies and Dispute Settlement in Trade Agreements***by*Giovanni Maggi & Robert W. Staiger**1734 Uniform Topologies on Types***by*Yi-Chun Chen & Alfredo Di Tillio & Eduardo Faingold & Siyang Xiong**1733 El Farol Revisited: A Note on Emergence, Game Theory and Society***by*Martin Shubik**1732 Identification of a Heterogeneous Generalized Regression Model with Group Effects***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile**1731 Semiparametric Efficiency Bound for Models of Sequential Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions***by*Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen**1730R Default Penalty as a Selection Mechanism among Multiple Equilibria***by*Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder**1730 Default Penalty as a Disciplinary and Selection Mechanism in Presence of Multiple Equilibria***by*Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder**1729 Marshallian Money, Welfare, and Side-Payments***by*Chen-Zhong Qin & Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**1728 Has Macro Progressed?***by*Ray C. Fair**1727 Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits***by*Ray C. Fair**1726R Incentives for Experimenting Agents***by*Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson**1726 Incentives for Experimenting Agents***by*Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson**1725 Subjectivity in Inductive Inference***by*Itzhak Gilboa & Larry Samuelson**1724 Optimal Comparison of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models under a Chosen Measure of Fit***by*Vadim Marmer & Taisuke Otsu**1723 Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships***by*Eduardo Engel & Ronald Fischer & Alexander Galetovic**1722 On the Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions***by*Yuichi Kitamura & Andres Santos & Azeem M. Shaikh**1721 Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models***by*Eric Gautier & Yuichi Kitamura**1720 Robustness, Infinitesimal Neighborhoods, and Moment Restrictions***by*Yuichi Kitamura & Taisuke Otsu & Kirill Evdokimov**1719 Hyperbolic Discounting Is Rational: Valuing the Far Future with Uncertain Discount Rates***by*J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos**1718 Nonparametric Identification of Multinomial Choice Demand Models with Heterogeneous Consumers***by*Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile**1717 The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation***by*Mark J. Kamstra & Robert J. Shiller**1716 Alternative Policies and Sea-Level Rise in the RICE-2009 Model***by*William D. Nordhaus**1715R The Leverage Cycle***by*John Geanakoplos**1715 The Leverage Cycle***by*John Geanakoplos**1714 Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure***by*Gordon Anderson & Oliver Linton & Yoon-Jae Whang**1713 An Improved Bootstrap Test of Stochastic Dominance***by*Oliver Linton & Kyungchul Song & Yoon-Jae Whang**1712 Selecting a Unique Competitive Equilibrium with Default Penalties***by*Cheng-Zhong Qin & Martin Shubik**1711 Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits***by*John Geanakoplos & Stephen P. Zeldes**1710 Grading Exams: 100, 99, 98,...or A, B, C?***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos**1709 Credit Cards and Inflation***by*John Geanakoplos & Pradeep Dubey**1708 Inflationary Equilibrium in a Stochastic Economy with Independent Agents***by*John Geanakoplos & Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1707 The Effects of the Security Environment on Military Expenditures: Pooled Analyses of 165 Countries, 1950-2000***by*William D. Nordhaus & John R. Oneal & Bruce Russett**1706 Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability***by*Ray C. Fair**1705 Measurement of Income with Time Use with Applications to Hedonic Indicators of Happiness and Misery***by*William D. Nordhaus**1704 A Paradox of Inconsistent Parametric and Consistent Nonparametric Regression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Liangjun Su**1703 LAD Asymptotics under Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Possibly Infinite Error Densities***by*Jin Seo Cho & Chirok Han & Peter C.B. Phillips**1702 Nonparametric Structural Estimation via Continuous Location Shifts in an Endogenous Regressor***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Liangjun Su**1701 Infinite Density at the Median and the Typical Shape of Stock Return Distributions***by*Chirok Han & Jin Seo Cho & Peter C.B. Phillips**1700 Dynamic Misspecification in Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression***by*Ioannis Kasparis & Peter C.B. Phillips**1699 Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu**1697 Rationalizable Implementation***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1696 Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets***by*John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira**1695 Collaborating***by*Alessandro Bonatti & Johannes Horner**1694 Principal Components and Long Run Implications of Multivariate Diffusions***by*Xiaohong Chen & Lars Peter Hansen & Jose Scheinkman**1693 The Ethics of Distribution in a Warming Planet***by*John E. Roemer**1692 Intergenerational Justice when Future Worlds Are Uncertain***by*Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre**1691 Efficient Estimation of Copula-based Semiparametric Markov Models***by*Xiaohong Chen & Wei Biao Wu & Yanping Yi**1690 Mean and Autocovariance Function Estimation Near the Boundary of Stationarity***by*Liudas Giraitis & Peter C. B. Phillips**1689 Bootstrapping I(1) Data***by*Peter C. B. Phillips**1688 Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance***by*Xu Cheng & Peter C. B. Phillips**1687 Asymptotic Theory for Zero Energy Density Estimation with Nonparametric Regression Applications***by*Qiying Wang & Peter C. B. Phillips**1686 An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem***by*William D. Nordhaus**1685 The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change***by*William D. Nordhaus**1673R A Dynamic Analysis of Human Welfare in a Warming Planet***by*Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre**1652R Nonlinearity and Temporal Dependence***by*Xiaohong Chen & Lars P. Hansen & Marine Carrasco

### 2008

**1682R2 Venture Capital and Sequential Investments***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng**1665R2 Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and Feasible GLS Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Conditional Heteroskedaticity***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1684R Managing Strategic Buyers***by*Johannes Horner & Larry Samuelson**1683 Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship***by*Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Demian Pouzo & Zhiliang Ying**1682R Venture Capital and Sequential Investments***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng**1682 Venture Capital and Sequential Investments***by*Dirk Bergemann & Ulrich Hege & Liang Peng**1681 Financial Control of a Competitive Economy without Randomness***by*Ioannis Karatzas & Martin Shubik & William D. Sudderth**1680 A Principal-Agent Model of Sequential Testing***by*Dino Gerardi & Lucas Maestri**1679 Copula-Based Nonlinear Quantile Autoregression***by*Xiaohong Chen & Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao**1678 The Evolution of Decision and Experienced Utilities***by*Arthur Robson & Larry Samuelson**1677 Asymptotic Equivalence of Probabilistic Serial and Random Priority Mechanisms***by*Yeon-Koo Che & Fuhito Kojima**1676R Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Panle Jia**1676 Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Panle Jia**1675R Sufficiency of an Outside Bank and a Default Penalty to Support the Value of Fiat Money: Experimental Evidence***by*Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder**1675 The Value of Fiat Money with an Outside Bank: An Experimental Game***by*Juergen Huber & Martin Shubik & Shyam Sunder**1674 Innovation and Equilibrium?***by*Martin Shubik**1673 A Dynamic Analysis of Human Welfare in a Warming Planet***by*Humberto Llavador & John E. Roemer & Joaquim Silvestre**1672R The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1672 The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism***by*Dirk Bergemann & Juuso Valimaki**1671 Invalidity of the Bootstrap and the m Out of n Bootstrap for Interval Endpoints Defined by Moment Inequalities***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Sukjin Han**1670 Rationalizing Choice with Multi-Self Models***by*Attila Ambrus & Kareen Rozen**1669 Rationalization and Cognitive Dissonance: Do Choices Affect or Reflect Preferences?***by*M. Keith Chen**1668R Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables***by*Joseph G. Altonji & Hidehiko Ichimura & Taisuke Otsu**1668 Estimating Derivatives in Nonseparable Models with Limited Dependent Variables***by*Joseph G. Altonji & Hidehiko Ichimura & Taisuke Otsu**1667R Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox***by*Anat Bracha & Donald J. Brown**1667 Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox***by*Anat Bracha & Donald J. Brown**1666R Robust Implementation in General Mechanisms***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1666 Robust Implementation in General Mechanisms***by*Dirk Bergemann & Stephen Morris**1665R Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and Feasible GLS Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Conditional Heteroskedaticity***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1665 Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and Feasible GLS Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Conditional Heteroskedaticity***by*Donald W.K. Andrews & Patrik Guggenberger**1664 Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts***by*John Geanakoplos & Stephen P. Zeldes**1663 Overlapping Generations Models of General Equilibrium***by*John Geanakoplos**1662 Pareto Improving Taxes***by*John Geanakoplos & H. M. Polemarchakis**1661 Optimal Bandwidth Choice for Interval Estimation in GMM Regression***by*Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips**1660 Testing for Non-Nested Conditional Moment Restrictions Using Unconditional Empirical Likelihood***by*Taisuke Otsu & Myung Hwan Seo & Yoon-Jae Whang**1659 Smoothing Local-to-Moderate Unit Root Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos & Liudas Giraitis