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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign

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We derive mean-unbiased estimators for the structural parameter in instrumental variables models with a single endogenous regressor where the sign of one or more first stage coefficients is known. In the case with a single instrument, there is a unique non-randomized unbiased estimator based on the reduced-form and first-stage regression estimates. For cases with multiple instruments we propose a class of unbiased estimators and show that an estimator within this class is efficient when the instruments are strong. We show numerically that unbiasedness does not come at a cost of increased dispersion in models with a single instrument: in this case the unbiased estimator is less dispersed than the 2SLS estimator. Our finite-sample results apply to normal models with known variance for the reduced-form errors, and imply analogous results under weak instrument asymptotics with an unknown error distribution.

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  • Isaiah Andrews & Timothy B. Armstrong, 2015. "Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1984R5, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Nov 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1984r5
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    9. Müller, Ulrich K. & Wang, Yulong, 2019. "Nearly weighted risk minimal unbiased estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 18-34.
    10. Khan, Umair & Khalid, Umair & Farooq, Fatima, 2021. "Endogeneity Quagmire Empirical Evidence from Telecommunication Industry of Pakistan," Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, CSRC Publishing, Center for Sustainability Research and Consultancy Pakistan, vol. 7(4), pages 955-967, December.
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    13. Matthew C. Harding & Jerry Hausman & Christopher Palmer, 2015. "Finite sample bias corrected IV estimation for weak and many instruments," CeMMAP working papers 41/15, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    14. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05b, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak instruments; Unbiased estimation; Sign restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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