# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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### 1980

**568 On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators***by*Esfandier Maasoumi & Peter C.B. Phillips**567 Characteristic Functions and the Tail Behavior of Probability Distributions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**566 A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for the Nonemptiness of the Cores of Partitioning Games***by*Mamoru Kaneko**565 Thinking About Carbon Dioxide: Theoretical and Empirical Aspects of Optimal Control Strategies***by*William D. Nordhaus**564 Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models***by*Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor**563 The Central Assignment Game and the Assignment Markets***by*Mamoru Kaneko**562 Best Uniform Approximation to Probability Densities in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**561 The Characteristic Function of the F Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**560 On a Lemma of Amemiya***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**559 Perfect or Robust Noncooperative Equilibrium: A Search for the Philosophers Stone?***by*Martin Shubik**558 Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle***by*Sanford Grossman & Laurence Weiss**557 Intergenerational Political Economy (A Game Theoretic Model of How to Glue the Generations Together)***by*Martin Shubik**556 Extension of a Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**555 Policy Responses to the Productivity Slowdown***by*William D. Nordhaus**554 Optimal Intertemporal Taxation and the Public Debt***by*Christophe Chamley**553 The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Economy***by*Christophe Chamley**552 A Model of Output, Employment, Capital Formation and Inflation***by*R.W. Bailey & V.B. Hall & Peter C.B. Phillips**549 An Application of the Khachian-Shor Algorithm to a Class of Linear Complementary Problems***by*Ilan Adler & Richard P. McLean & J. Scott Provan**548 A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior***by*David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin**547 Weakly Democratic Regular Tax Equilibria in a Local Public Goods Economy with Perfect Consumer Mobility***by*Donald K. Richter**546 Output Supply, Employment, and Intra-Industry Wage Dispersion***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Gerald David Jaynes**545 Inequality, Exploitation, Justice and Socialism: A Theoretical-Historical Approach***by*John E. Roemer**544 Rawlsian Justice as the Core of a Game***by*John E. Roemer & Roger Howe**543 Exploitation and Class: Part II, Capitalist Economy***by*John E. Roemer**542 Linear Complementarity and the Degree of Mappings***by*Roger Howe

### 1979

**541R A Multicountry Econometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair**540 Some Relationships Between Discrete and Continuous Models of an Urban Economy***by*Richard P. McLean & Thomas J. Muench**539 Morse Programs***by*Okitsugu Fujiwara**538 On the Tendency Toward Convexity of the Vector Sum of Sets***by*Roger Howe**537 An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models***by*William R. Parke**536 The Spending Behavior of Wealth- and Liquidity-Constrained Consumers***by*Kim Kowalewski & Gary Smith**535 Disequilibrium Models of Financial Institutions***by*Gary Smith & William C. Brainard**534 The Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus**533 Tax-Based Incomes Policies: A Better Mousetrap?***by*William D. Nordhaus**532 How Should We Revise Our Beliefs About Nuclear Power Safety After Three Mile Island?***by*William D. Nordhaus**531 Competitive Bidding and Proprietary Information***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans & Robert J. Webber**530 On the Relation of Various Reliability Measures to Each Other and to Game Theoretic Values***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans & David R. Strip**529 The Design of Distributed Service Systems***by*David R. Strip & Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**528 Information Aggregation and Policy***by*Laurence Weiss**527 The ALEP Definition of Complementarity and Least Concave Utility Functions***by*Yakar Kannai**526 Production Sets with Indivisibilities: Generalities and the Case of Two Variables***by*Herbert E. Scarf**525 Stochastic Games, Oligopoly Theory and Competitive Resource Allocation***by*Martin Shubik & Matthew J. Sobel**524 Most Convex Functions are Smooth***by*Roger Howe**523 On the Non-Existence of Multiplicative Equilibrium Bidding Strategies***by*Engelbrecht-Wiggans & Robert J. Weber**522 The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Floating Exchange Rates: An Exposition***by*James Tobin & Jorge B. de Macedo**521 A Strategic Market Game with Price and Quantity Strategies***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**520 Price-Quantity Strategic Market Games***by*Pradeep Dubey**519 Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model***by*Ray C. Fair & William R. Parke**518 An Even More Elementary `Calculus' Proof of the Brouwer Fixed Point Theorem***by*Yakar Kannai**517 Cooperative Game Solutions: Australian, Indian and U.S. Opinions***by*Martin Shubik**516 An Index Theorem for General Equilibrium Models with Production***by*Timothy J. Kehoe**515 Subjectivity in the Valuation of Games***by*Robert J. Weber**514 Market Induced Welfare Optima***by*Rolf R. Mantel**513 Value Theory without Efficiency***by*Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman & Robert J. Weber**500R Bidding in Auctions with Multiplicative Lognormal Errors: An Example***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**496R Auctions and Bidding Models: A Survey***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans

### 1978

**512 Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Capital Formation, and Economic Activity***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**511 An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model***by*Ray C. Fair**510 Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**509 A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium in a Quasi-Competitive Industry***by*John Sutton**508R Finiteness and Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria***by*Pradeep Dubey**507 The Capital Stock Modified Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**506 A Proposal for International Monetary Reform***by*James Tobin**505 Economics among the Sciences***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**504 Equity, Efficiency and Increasing Returns***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**503 The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time***by*Steven Shavell & Laurence Weiss**502 Government Deficits and Capital Accumulation***by*James Tobin**501 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: II. Finiteness***by*Pradeep Dubey**499 A Model of International Trade and Finance***by*Laurence Weiss**498 Comparison of Public Choice Systems***by*Robert J. Weber**497 Debt Neutrality: A Brief Review of Doctrine and Evidence***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**495 A Model for the Distribution of the Number of Bidders in an Auction***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**494 An Example of a Multi-Object Auction Game***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**493 An Integrated Model of Household Flow-of-Funds Allocations***by*David Backus & Douglas D. Purvis**492 An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**491 The Role for Active Monetary Policy in a Rational Expectations Model***by*Laurence Weiss**490 Profitability and Growth in a Small Open Economy***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**489 Systems Defense Games: Colonel Blotto, Command and Control***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**488 Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo**487 A Note on the Saddlepoint Approximation in the First Order Non-Circular Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**486 The Transition from Exhaustible to Renewable or Inexhaustible Resources***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**485 The Structure of Neutral Monotonic Social Functions***by*Julian H. Blau & Donald J. Brown**484 On 'On the Foundations of the Theory of Monopolistic Competition'***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**483 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 37. The Profit Maximizing Firm: Managers and Stockholders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**482 Competitive Valuation of Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**481 Myopic Economic Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Lucinda M. Lewis**480 Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**479 A Model of the Jury Decision Process***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Michael Rothschild**478 The Nucleolus as a Noncooperative Game Solution***by*Martin Shubik & H. Peyton Young**472R The Effects of Money Supply on Economic Welfare***by*Weiss, Laurence Weiss

### 1977

**477 Modelling the Choice of Residential Location***by*Daniel McFadden**476 Game Theory Models and Methods in Political Economy***by*Martin Shubik**475 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: I. Existence and Convergence***by*Pradeep Dubey**474 Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behaviour of Individuals: Some Recent Developments***by*Daniel McFadden**473 The Computation of Equilibrium Prices: An Exposition***by*Herbert E. Scarf**471R Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Robert J. Weber**471 Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Pradeep Dubey & Robert J. Weber**470 Sealed Bid Auctions with Non-Additive Bid Functions***by*Richard Englebrecht-Wiggans**469 The Greedy Heuristic Applied to a Class of Set Partitioning and Subset Selection Problems***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**468 The Long Run Implications of an IS-LM Simulation Model***by*Gary Smith**467 Information Conditions, Communication and General Equilibrium***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**466 The Long Run Implications of a Two Sector Model with Immobile Capital***by*Gary Smith**465 On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries***by*Ray C. Fair**464 The Long Run Consequences of Monetary and Fiscal Policies When the Governments Budget Is Not Balanced***by*Gary Smith**463 Deficit Spending and Crowding Out in Shorter and Longer Runs***by*James Tobin**462 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**461 Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Interpretations of the IS-LM Model***by*Gary Smith**460R Strategic Market Games: A Sketch of an Approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Together with an Informal Guide to Some Papers***by*Martin Shubik**459 An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets***by*Ray C. Fair**458 How Dead is Keynes?***by*James Tobin**457 Modeling Technological Change: Use of Mathematical Programming Models in the Energy Sector***by*William D. Nordhaus & Ludo Van der Heyden**456 Monetary Policies and the Economy -- The Transmission Mechanism***by*James Tobin**455 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 22. A Price-Quantity Buy-Sell Market with and without Contingent Bids***by*Martin Shubik**454 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 36. The Money Rate of Interest (A Multiperiod Nonatomic Trading and Production Economy with Outside Money, Inside Money and Optimal Bankruptcy Rules)***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**453 An Observation on the Structure of Production Sets with Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**452 Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**451 A Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**450 A Shortrun Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy***by*Gary Smith**449 What is the Value of Advanced Nuclear Power?***by*William D. Nordhaus**448 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 35. Bankruptcy and Optimality in a Closed Trading Mass Economy Modelled as a Noncooperative Game***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**447 Noncooperative Exchange with a Continuum of Traders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Lloyd S. Shapley**446 The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve***by*Ray C. Fair**445 Logrolling and Budget Allocation Games***by*Martin Shubik & Ludo Van der Heyden**444 An Extension of the Brown-Robinson Equivalence Theorem***by*Donald J. Brown & M. Ali Khan**443 Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide***by*William D. Nordhaus**442 Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1976

**441 Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 34. A Multiperiod Trading Economy with Fiat Money, Bank Money and an Optimal Bankruptcy Rule***by*Martin Shubik**440 Probabilistic Generalizations of the Shapley Value***by*Pradeep Dubey**439 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 33. On the Value of Market Information***by*Martin Shubik**438 Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime***by*Douglas D. Purvis**437 Price Information and the Economics of Consumerism: A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium***by*John Sutton**436 A Theory of Extramarital Affairs***by*Ray C. Fair**435 Economic Growth and Climate: The Carbon Dioxide Problem***by*William D. Nordhaus**434 A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator***by*Ray C. Fair**433 The Small-Disturbance-Asymptotic Moments of the Instrumental Variables and Ordinary Least Squares Estimators for a Dynamic Equation with Correlated Errors***by*Jon K. Peck**432 A Model of Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information***by*Charles Wilson**431 A Dynamic Economy with Shares, Fiat, Bank and Accounting Money***by*Joseph J.M. Evers & Martin Shubik**430 A Model of the World Economy***by*Ray C. Fair**429 A Closed Economic System with Production and Exchange Modelled as a Game of Strategy***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**428 The Linear Exchange Model and Induced Welfare Optima***by*Rolf R. Mantel**427 Asset Markets and the Cost of Capital***by*James Tobin & William C. Brainard**426 A Short-Run Two-Commodity Macroeconomic Model***by*Gary Smith & William Starnes**424R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 30 (revised). The Optimal Bankruptcy Rule in a Trading Economy Using Fiat Money***by*Martin Shubik & Charles Wilson**423 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part IV. The Theory of Long-Run Phillips Curve***by*Katsuhito Iwai**422 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 28. The Noncooperative Equilibria of a Closed Trading Economy with Market Supply and Bidding Strategies***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**421 Concepts of Optimality and Their Uses***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**420 The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance***by*Ray C. Fair**419 On a General Approach to Optimality in Game Theory***by*Eduardas Vilkas**418 The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President***by*Ray C. Fair**417 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 27. Beyond General Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**416 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 26. On the Number of Types of Markets with Trade in Money***by*Martin Shubik**415 Inflation Theory and Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus

### 1975

**414 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 25. A Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money, Futures and Spot Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**413 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part II. The Empirical Specification***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**412 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part I. Full Format Computation of Economic Equilibria***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**411 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part III. A Keynesian Theory of Money Wage Adjustment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**410R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 24. Trade and Prices in a Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money and No Futures Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**409 Implications of Microeconomic Theory for Community Excess Demand Functions***by*Rolf R. Mantel**408 Examples of Production Relations Based on Microdata***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**407 The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices***by*Geoffrey M. Heal**406 The Values of a Nonstandard Competitive Allocation***by*Donald J. Brown & Peter A. Loeb**405 The Demand for Energy: An International Perspective***by*William D. Nordhaus**404 The Estimation of a Dynamic Equation Following a Preliminary Test for Autocorrelation***by*Jon K. Peck**403 Price Taking or Price Making Behavior: An Alternative to Full Cost Price Functions***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Israel Zang**402 A Critical Analysis of Ridge Regression***by*Frank Campbell & Gary Smith**401 Invariant Competitive Equilibrium in an Infinity-Horizon Economy with Negotiable Shares***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**400 A Control Variable Investigation of the Properties of Autoregressive Instrumental Variables Estimators for Dynamic Systems***by*David F. Hendry & Frank Srba**399 The Limiting Distribution of Inconsistent Instrumental Variables Estimators in a Class of Stationary Stochastic Systems***by*David F. Hendry**398 Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom***by*David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson**397 On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections***by*Ray C. Fair**396 A Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**395 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 23. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Force of the Rate of Interest and the Vanishing Float***by*Martin Shubik**394 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 21. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Float and the Money Rate of Interest***by*Martin Shubik**393 Collective Rationality***by*Donald J. Brown**392 A Duality Theory for Convex Infinite-Horizon Programming***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**391 Acyclic Aggregation over Finite Sets of Alternatives***by*Donald J. Brown**390 The Solution of Systems of Piecewise Linear Equations***by*B. Curtis Eaves & Herbert E. Scarf**389 A Finite Algorithm for the Linear Exchange Model***by*B. Curtis Eaves**388 Oligopoly, Theory, Communication and Information***by*Martin Shubik**387 Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression***by*James Tobin**386 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part II. Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics, Say's Law and the End of the Natural Rate Theory of Unemployment***by*Katsuhito Iwai

### 1974

**385 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part I. Microfoundations of Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics***by*Katsuhito Iwai**384 Long Run Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand***by*James Tobin & Willem H. Buiter**383 Multicollinearity and Forecasting***by*Gary Smith**382 The Value of a priori Information in Estimating a Financial Model***by*Gary Smith & William C. Brainard**381 Further Notes on the Misuse of R^2***by*Gary Smith**380 Okun's Law Revisited***by*Gary Smith**379 Competitive Equilibrium Contingent Commodities and Information***by*Martin Shubik**378 Global Analysis and Economics VI. Geometric Analysis of Pareto Optima and Price Equilibria under Classical Hypotheses***by*Steve Smale**377 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVI. Mathematical Models for a Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**376 Fiscal Capacity, Equalization and Public Expenditure for Education***by*Susan J. Lepper**375 Equilibrium Wage Distributions***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**374 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVIII. A Noncooperative Model of a Closed Trading Economy with Many Traders and Two Bankers***by*Martin Shubik**373 The Walrasian and Von Neumann Equilibria: A Comparison***by*Jerzy Los & Maria Wycech-Los**372 Transactions Technology and the Use of Intermediary Agents***by*Ross M. Starr**371 On the Role of Numbers and Information in Competition***by*Martin Shubik**370 The Moments of the 3SLS Estimates of the Structural Coefficients of a Simultaneous Equation Model***by*J.D. Sargan**369 Towards Keynesian Micro-Dynamics of Price, Wage, Sales and Employment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**368 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XV. A Trading Model to Avoid Tatonnement Metaphysics***by*Martin Shubik**367 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVII. On the Eight Basic Units of a Dynamic Economy with Spot and Futures Markets***by*Martin Shubik