# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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### 1979

**500R Bidding in Auctions with Multiplicative Lognormal Errors: An Example***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**496R Auctions and Bidding Models: A Survey***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans

### 1978

**512 Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Capital Formation, and Economic Activity***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**511 An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model***by*Ray C. Fair**510 Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**509 A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium in a Quasi-Competitive Industry***by*John Sutton**508R Finiteness and Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria***by*Pradeep Dubey**507 The Capital Stock Modified Competitive Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**506 A Proposal for International Monetary Reform***by*James Tobin**505 Economics among the Sciences***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**504 Equity, Efficiency and Increasing Returns***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**503 The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time***by*Steven Shavell & Laurence Weiss**502 Government Deficits and Capital Accumulation***by*James Tobin**501 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: II. Finiteness***by*Pradeep Dubey**499 A Model of International Trade and Finance***by*Laurence Weiss**498 Comparison of Public Choice Systems***by*Robert J. Weber**497 Debt Neutrality: A Brief Review of Doctrine and Evidence***by*Willem H. Buiter & James Tobin**495 A Model for the Distribution of the Number of Bidders in an Auction***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**494 An Example of a Multi-Object Auction Game***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**493 An Integrated Model of Household Flow-of-Funds Allocations***by*David Backus & Douglas D. Purvis**492 An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**491 The Role for Active Monetary Policy in a Rational Expectations Model***by*Laurence Weiss**490 Profitability and Growth in a Small Open Economy***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri**489 Systems Defense Games: Colonel Blotto, Command and Control***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**488 Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process***by*Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo**487 A Note on the Saddlepoint Approximation in the First Order Non-Circular Autoregression***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**486 The Transition from Exhaustible to Renewable or Inexhaustible Resources***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**485 The Structure of Neutral Monotonic Social Functions***by*Julian H. Blau & Donald J. Brown**484 On 'On the Foundations of the Theory of Monopolistic Competition'***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**483 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 37. The Profit Maximizing Firm: Managers and Stockholders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**482 Competitive Valuation of Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik & Robert J. Weber**481 Myopic Economic Agents***by*Donald J. Brown & Lucinda M. Lewis**480 Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**479 A Model of the Jury Decision Process***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Michael Rothschild**478 The Nucleolus as a Noncooperative Game Solution***by*Martin Shubik & H. Peyton Young**472R The Effects of Money Supply on Economic Welfare***by*Weiss, Laurence Weiss

### 1977

**477 Modelling the Choice of Residential Location***by*Daniel McFadden**476 Game Theory Models and Methods in Political Economy***by*Martin Shubik**475 Nash Equilibria of Market Games: I. Existence and Convergence***by*Pradeep Dubey**474 Quantitative Methods for Analyzing Travel Behaviour of Individuals: Some Recent Developments***by*Daniel McFadden**473 The Computation of Equilibrium Prices: An Exposition***by*Herbert E. Scarf**471R Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Robert J. Weber**471 Probabilistic Values for Games***by*Pradeep Dubey & Robert J. Weber**470 Sealed Bid Auctions with Non-Additive Bid Functions***by*Richard Englebrecht-Wiggans**469 The Greedy Heuristic Applied to a Class of Set Partitioning and Subset Selection Problems***by*Richard Engelbrecht-Wiggans**468 The Long Run Implications of an IS-LM Simulation Model***by*Gary Smith**467 Information Conditions, Communication and General Equilibrium***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**466 The Long Run Implications of a Two Sector Model with Immobile Capital***by*Gary Smith**465 On Modeling the Economic Linkages among Countries***by*Ray C. Fair**464 The Long Run Consequences of Monetary and Fiscal Policies When the Governments Budget Is Not Balanced***by*Gary Smith**463 Deficit Spending and Crowding Out in Shorter and Longer Runs***by*James Tobin**462 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**461 Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Interpretations of the IS-LM Model***by*Gary Smith**460R Strategic Market Games: A Sketch of an Approach to the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Together with an Informal Guide to Some Papers***by*Martin Shubik**459 An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets***by*Ray C. Fair**458 How Dead is Keynes?***by*James Tobin**457 Modeling Technological Change: Use of Mathematical Programming Models in the Energy Sector***by*William D. Nordhaus & Ludo Van der Heyden**456 Monetary Policies and the Economy -- The Transmission Mechanism***by*James Tobin**455 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 22. A Price-Quantity Buy-Sell Market with and without Contingent Bids***by*Martin Shubik**454 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 36. The Money Rate of Interest (A Multiperiod Nonatomic Trading and Production Economy with Outside Money, Inside Money and Optimal Bankruptcy Rules)***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**453 An Observation on the Structure of Production Sets with Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**452 Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**451 A Model of the Balance of Payments***by*Ray C. Fair**450 A Shortrun Macroeconomic Model of an Open Economy***by*Gary Smith**449 What is the Value of Advanced Nuclear Power?***by*William D. Nordhaus**448 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 35. Bankruptcy and Optimality in a Closed Trading Mass Economy Modelled as a Noncooperative Game***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**447 Noncooperative Exchange with a Continuum of Traders***by*Pradeep Dubey & Lloyd S. Shapley**446 The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions about the Behavior of the Federal Reserve***by*Ray C. Fair**445 Logrolling and Budget Allocation Games***by*Martin Shubik & Ludo Van der Heyden**444 An Extension of the Brown-Robinson Equivalence Theorem***by*Donald J. Brown & M. Ali Khan**443 Strategies for the Control of Carbon Dioxide***by*William D. Nordhaus**442 Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations***by*Ray C. Fair

### 1976

**441 Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 34. A Multiperiod Trading Economy with Fiat Money, Bank Money and an Optimal Bankruptcy Rule***by*Martin Shubik**440 Probabilistic Generalizations of the Shapley Value***by*Pradeep Dubey**439 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 33. On the Value of Market Information***by*Martin Shubik**438 Wages, the Terms of Trade, and the Exchange Rate Regime***by*Douglas D. Purvis**437 Price Information and the Economics of Consumerism: A Model of Stochastic Equilibrium***by*John Sutton**436 A Theory of Extramarital Affairs***by*Ray C. Fair**435 Economic Growth and Climate: The Carbon Dioxide Problem***by*William D. Nordhaus**434 A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator***by*Ray C. Fair**433 The Small-Disturbance-Asymptotic Moments of the Instrumental Variables and Ordinary Least Squares Estimators for a Dynamic Equation with Correlated Errors***by*Jon K. Peck**432 A Model of Insurance Markets with Asymmetric Information***by*Charles Wilson**431 A Dynamic Economy with Shares, Fiat, Bank and Accounting Money***by*Joseph J.M. Evers & Martin Shubik**430 A Model of the World Economy***by*Ray C. Fair**429 A Closed Economic System with Production and Exchange Modelled as a Game of Strategy***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**428 The Linear Exchange Model and Induced Welfare Optima***by*Rolf R. Mantel**427 Asset Markets and the Cost of Capital***by*James Tobin & William C. Brainard**426 A Short-Run Two-Commodity Macroeconomic Model***by*Gary Smith & William Starnes**424R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 30 (revised). The Optimal Bankruptcy Rule in a Trading Economy Using Fiat Money***by*Martin Shubik & Charles Wilson**423 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part IV. The Theory of Long-Run Phillips Curve***by*Katsuhito Iwai**422 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 28. The Noncooperative Equilibria of a Closed Trading Economy with Market Supply and Bidding Strategies***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**421 Concepts of Optimality and Their Uses***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**420 The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance***by*Ray C. Fair**419 On a General Approach to Optimality in Game Theory***by*Eduardas Vilkas**418 The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President***by*Ray C. Fair**417 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 27. Beyond General Equilibrium***by*Martin Shubik**416 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 26. On the Number of Types of Markets with Trade in Money***by*Martin Shubik**415 Inflation Theory and Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus

### 1975

**414 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 25. A Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money, Futures and Spot Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**413 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part II. The Empirical Specification***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**412 A General Equilibrium Model of World Trade. Part I. Full Format Computation of Economic Equilibria***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Jean Waelbroeck**411 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part III. A Keynesian Theory of Money Wage Adjustment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**410R A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 24. Trade and Prices in a Closed Economy with Exogenous Uncertainty, Different Levels of Information, Money and No Futures Markets***by*Pradeep Dubey & Martin Shubik**409 Implications of Microeconomic Theory for Community Excess Demand Functions***by*Rolf R. Mantel**408 Examples of Production Relations Based on Microdata***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**407 The Influence of Interest Rates on Resource Prices***by*Geoffrey M. Heal**406 The Values of a Nonstandard Competitive Allocation***by*Donald J. Brown & Peter A. Loeb**405 The Demand for Energy: An International Perspective***by*William D. Nordhaus**404 The Estimation of a Dynamic Equation Following a Preliminary Test for Autocorrelation***by*Jon K. Peck**403 Price Taking or Price Making Behavior: An Alternative to Full Cost Price Functions***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Israel Zang**402 A Critical Analysis of Ridge Regression***by*Frank Campbell & Gary Smith**401 Invariant Competitive Equilibrium in an Infinity-Horizon Economy with Negotiable Shares***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**400 A Control Variable Investigation of the Properties of Autoregressive Instrumental Variables Estimators for Dynamic Systems***by*David F. Hendry & Frank Srba**399 The Limiting Distribution of Inconsistent Instrumental Variables Estimators in a Class of Stationary Stochastic Systems***by*David F. Hendry**398 Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behavior in the United Kingdom***by*David F. Hendry & Gordon J. Anderson**397 On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections***by*Ray C. Fair**396 A Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**395 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 23. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Force of the Rate of Interest and the Vanishing Float***by*Martin Shubik**394 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part 21. Fiat Money, Bank Money, the Float and the Money Rate of Interest***by*Martin Shubik**393 Collective Rationality***by*Donald J. Brown**392 A Duality Theory for Convex Infinite-Horizon Programming***by*Joseph J.M. Evers**391 Acyclic Aggregation over Finite Sets of Alternatives***by*Donald J. Brown**390 The Solution of Systems of Piecewise Linear Equations***by*B. Curtis Eaves & Herbert E. Scarf**389 A Finite Algorithm for the Linear Exchange Model***by*B. Curtis Eaves**388 Oligopoly, Theory, Communication and Information***by*Martin Shubik**387 Keynesian Models of Recession and Depression***by*James Tobin**386 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part II. Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics, Say's Law and the End of the Natural Rate Theory of Unemployment***by*Katsuhito Iwai

### 1974

**385 On Disequilibrium Economic Dynamics. Part I. Microfoundations of Wicksellian Disequilibrium Dynamics***by*Katsuhito Iwai**384 Long Run Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand***by*James Tobin & Willem H. Buiter**383 Multicollinearity and Forecasting***by*Gary Smith**382 The Value of a priori Information in Estimating a Financial Model***by*Gary Smith & William C. Brainard**381 Further Notes on the Misuse of R^2***by*Gary Smith**380 Okun's Law Revisited***by*Gary Smith**379 Competitive Equilibrium Contingent Commodities and Information***by*Martin Shubik**378 Global Analysis and Economics VI. Geometric Analysis of Pareto Optima and Price Equilibria under Classical Hypotheses***by*Steve Smale**377 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVI. Mathematical Models for a Theory of Money and Financial Institutions***by*Martin Shubik**376 Fiscal Capacity, Equalization and Public Expenditure for Education***by*Susan J. Lepper**375 Equilibrium Wage Distributions***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**374 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVIII. A Noncooperative Model of a Closed Trading Economy with Many Traders and Two Bankers***by*Martin Shubik**373 The Walrasian and Von Neumann Equilibria: A Comparison***by*Jerzy Los & Maria Wycech-Los**372 Transactions Technology and the Use of Intermediary Agents***by*Ross M. Starr**371 On the Role of Numbers and Information in Competition***by*Martin Shubik**370 The Moments of the 3SLS Estimates of the Structural Coefficients of a Simultaneous Equation Model***by*J.D. Sargan**369 Towards Keynesian Micro-Dynamics of Price, Wage, Sales and Employment***by*Katsuhito Iwai**368 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XV. A Trading Model to Avoid Tatonnement Metaphysics***by*Martin Shubik**367 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XVII. On the Eight Basic Units of a Dynamic Economy with Spot and Futures Markets***by*Martin Shubik

### 1973

**366 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XIII. Trade with Spot Markets, Fiat Money and Internal Banking***by*Martin Shubik**365 The General Equilibrium Model is the Wrong Model and a Noncooperative Strategic Process Model is a Satisfactory Model for the Reconciliation of Micro and Macroeconomic Theory***by*Martin Shubik**364 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XII. A Dynamic Economy with Fiat Money Without Banking and With and Without Production Goods***by*Martin Shubik**363 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part XI. Trade with Fiat Money but No Individual Trust. A Preliminary Stage towards Banking***by*Martin Shubik**362 Regulation of Natural Monopolies and the Fair Rate of Return***by*Hayne E. Leland**361 Production Theory and the Stock Market***by*Hayne E. Leland**360 Acyclic Choice***by*Donald J. Brown**359 The General Equilibrium Model with Joint Ownership of the Corporation (Voting Stock and the Core)***by*Martin Shubik**358 Some Problems of Centralized Economy***by*N.N. Moiseev & A.G. Schmidt**357 Alternative Theories of Wage Determination and Unemployment in L.D.C.'s: II. The Efficiency Wage Model***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**356 Some Observations on 'Optimal' Economic Growth and Exhaustible Resources***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans**355 Fiat Money in an Economy with One Nondurable Good and No Credit (A Noncooperative Sequential Game)***by*Martin Shubik & Ward Whitt**354 The Theory of 'Screening', Education, and the Distribution of Income***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**353 Incentives and Risk-Sharing in Sharecropping***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**352 Voting, Preference Orderings and Cooperative Games***by*Martin Shubik**351 Game Theory and Political Science***by*Martin Shubik**350 A Note on the Shape of the Pareto Optimal Surface***by*Gordon H. Bradley & Martin Shubik**349 Money and the Decentralization of Exchange***by*Joseph M. Ostroy & Ross M. Starr

### 1972

**348 Technological Development and Employment***by*James Tobin**347 Information, Duopoly and Competitive Markets: A Sensitivity Analysis***by*Martin Shubik**346 Input Quality, Obsolescence and Unemployment***by*J. Kirker Stephens**345 Social Choice on Pollution Management: The GENOSSENSCHAFTEN***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Gerald H. Kramer**344 Some Further Results on the Measurement of Inequality***by*Michael Rothschild & Joseph E. Stiglitz**343 Existence of a 'Local' Cooperative Equilibrium in a Class of Voting Games***by*Gerald H. Kramer & Alvin K. Klevorick**342 Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium in a Nonstandard Exchange Economy***by*Donald J. Brown**341 Voting Behavior and Aggregate Policy Targets***by*Susan J. Lepper**340 Benefit-Cost Analysis and Trade Policies***by*Partha Dasgupta & Joseph E. Stiglitz**339 On the Irrelevance of Corporate Financial Policy***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**338 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part V. The Rate of Interest on Fiat Money in a Closed Economy***by*Martin Shubik**337 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part IX. Competitive and Controlled Price Economies: The Arrow Debreu Model Revisited***by*Martin Shubik**336 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VIII. Transactions Costs in a Market Economy***by*Martin Shubik**335 Alternative Theories of Wage Determination and Unemployment in L.D.C.'s: I. The Labor Turn-Over Model***by*Joseph E. Stiglitz**334 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VI. The Rate of Interest, Noncooperative Equilibrium and Bankruptcy***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**333 Notes on Transactions Costs and the Analysis of Microeconomic Monetary Theory***by*William D. Nordhaus**332 Notes on Transactions Costs and the Analysis of Microeconomic Theory***by*Ross M. Starr**331 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part VII. Money, Trust and Equilibrium Points in Games in Extensive Form***by*Martin Shubik**330 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part IV. Fiat Money and Noncooperative Equilibrium in a Closed Economy***by*Martin Shubik**329 The Effects of Inflation on the Distribution of Economic Welfare***by*William D. Nordhaus**328 A General Equilibrium Calculation of the Effects of Differential Taxation of Income from Capital in the U.S***by*John B. Shoven & John Whalley**327 The Marginal Revolution After One Hundred Years***by*Ronald G. Bodkin**326 The Cores of Large Standard Exchange Economies***by*Donald J. Brown & Abraham Robinson**325 A Comparison of Alternative Estimators for a Dynamic Relationship Estimated from a Time Series of Cross-Sections When the Disturbances Are Small***by*Jon K. Peck**313R On the Definition and Computation of a Capital Stock Invariant Under Optimization***by*Terje Hansen & Tjalling C. Koopmans

### 1971

**324 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part III. The Missing Degree of Freedom: Commodity Money and Oligopoly in a General Equilibrium Model***by*Martin Shubik**323 Alternative Management of Common Property Resources under Free Access and Private Ownership***by*Martin L. Weitzman**322 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions: Part II. On the Paradox of the Efficient Price System in a Completely Centralized Economy and in a Capitalist Individual Ownership Economy***by*Martin Shubik**321 A New Measure of Income from Wealth***by*Donald A. Nichols**320 A Theory of Money and Financial Institutions. Part I. The General Approach Adopted***by*Martin Shubik**319 Is Growth Obsolete?***by*William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin**318 On the Scope of Gaming***by*Martin Shubik**317 Duality Theory of Convex Programming for Infinite Horizon Economic Models***by*Martin L. Weitzman**316 Competitive Equilibrium and Game Theory Solutions: Part I. The Core and Value***by*Lloyd S. Shapley & Martin Shubik**315 Summary Comment***by*James Tobin**314 Wealth, Liquidity, and the Propensity to Consume***by*James Tobin