IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1325.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Ivo Welch

    (Yale School of Management)

Abstract

A seller wishes to sell an object to one of multiple bidders. The valuations of the bidders are privately known. We consider the joint design problem in which the seller can decide the accuracy by which bidders learn their valuation and to whom to sell at what price. We establish that optimal information structures in an optimal auction exhibit a number of properties: (i) information structures can be represented by monotone partitions, (ii) the cardinality of each partition is finite, (iii) the partitions are asymmetric across agents. These properties imply that the optimal selling strategy of a seller can be implemented by a sequence of exclusive take-it or leave-it offers.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1325
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d13/d1325.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-537, October.
    2. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
    2. Fernandez, Pablo, 2009. "Prima de Riesgo del Mercado: Histórica, Esperada, Exigida e Implícita
      [Equity Risk Premium: Historic, Expected, Required and Implied]
      ," MPRA Paper 14221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, August.
    4. Daniel Bergstresser & Mihir A. Desai & Joshua Rauh, 2004. "Earnings Manipulation and Managerial Investment Decisions: Evidence from Sponsored Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 10543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fernandez, Pablo, 2009. "Market risk premium used in 2008: A survey of more than a 1,000 professors," IESE Research Papers D/784, IESE Business School.
    6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Kovacevic, Ivo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Expected commodity returns and pricing models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-71.
    7. Rochon, Mathieu & Desrosiers, Stéphanie & L’Her, Jean-François, 2004. "Révision à la baisse de la prime sur les actions au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 137-170, Mars.
    8. John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2001. "Expectations of Equity Risk Premia, Volatility and Asymmetry from a Corporate Finance Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. M. Levy, 2010. "Loss aversion and the price of risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(9), pages 1009-1022.
    10. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    11. Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Stock Prices and IPO Waves," CEPR Discussion Papers 4002, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Ravi Dhar & William Goetzmann, 2005. "Bubble Investors: What Were They Thinking?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm446, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2006.
    13. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    14. Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Eisl, Roland, 2011. "Carbon capture and storage—Investment strategies for the future?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7103-7111.
    15. Jakob B. Madsen & Ratbek Dzhumashev, 2012. "The equity premium and the required stock returns in a Tobin's q model with a stochastic discount factor," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 683-694, February.
    16. Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & O'Brien, Martin, 2007. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2007," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20072, April.
    17. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
    18. Huang, Hsu-Huei & Chan, Min-Lee & Huang, I-Hsiang & Chang, Chih-Hsiang, 2011. "Stock price volatility and overreaction in a political crisis: The effects of corporate governance and performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-20, January.
    19. Fernandez, Pablo, 2005. "La prima de riesgo del mercado (market risk premium)," IESE Research Papers D/585, IESE Business School.
    20. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.
    21. Fernandez, Pablo, 2008. "The equity premium in 100 textbooks," IESE Research Papers D/757, IESE Business School.
    22. Longstaff, Francis & Piazzesi, Monika, 2002. "Corporate Earnings and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3qn115m4, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity premium;

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1325. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew Regan). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.