# Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

# Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Phone: (203) 432-3702

Fax: (203) 432-6167

Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

More information through EDIRC

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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### 1985

**747 Some Three Person Games in Coalitional Form for Teaching and Experimentation***by*Martin Shubik**746 An Axiomatization of Utility and Subjective Probability Based on Objective Probability***by*Mamoru Kaneko**745R Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models***by*Russell Cooper & John Andrew**744 The Use of Simple Games to Illustrate Concepts and to Provide Experimental Evidence***by*Martin Shubik**743 Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Bias in Tests of Rational Expectations***by*N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro**742 Aggregation and Linearity in the Provision of Intertemporal Incentives***by*Bengt Holmstrom & Paul R. Milgrom**741 Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications***by*Adrian Pagan**740R Time Series Regression with a Unit Root***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**739 The Distribution of FIML in the Leading Case***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**738 Risk and Return: Consumption Beta Versus Market Beta***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw**736 Capital Utilization and Capital Accumulation: Theory and Evidence***by*Matthew D. Shapiro

### 1984

**735 The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor***by*Matthew D. Shapiro**734R A Note on the Unbiasedness of Feasible GLS, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood, Robust Adaptive, and Spectral Estimators of the Linear Model***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**733 Games with Perceptive Commanders But Less Perceptive Subordinates***by*Martin Shubik**732 Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation***by*Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller**731 The Exact Distribution of the Wald Statistic: The Non-Central Case***by*Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips**730 A Note on Enough Money in a Strategic Market Game with Complete or Fewer Markets***by*Martin Shubik**729 Managerial Incentives and Capital Management***by*Bengt Holmstrom & I. Ricard & Joan Costa**728 Neighborhood Systems for Production Sets with Indivisibilities***by*Herbert E. Scarf**727 Expansionary Government Policy in an Economy with Commodity and Labor***by*Russell Cooper**726 Optimal Cartel Equilibria with Imperfect Monitoring***by*Dilip Abreu & David G. Pearce & Ennio Stacchetti**725 Trends, Random Walks, and Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis***by*Matthew D. Shapiro & N. Gregory Mankiw**724 On a General Existence Theorem for Marginal Cost Pricing Equilibria***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal & M. Ali Khan & Rajiv Vohra**722 The Exact Distribution of the Wald Statistic***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**721 Testing for Serial Correlation and Unit Roots Using a Computer Function Routine Bases on ERA's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips & R.C. Reiss**720 General Equilibrium with Wage Rigidities: An Application to Belgium***by*Victor Ginsburgh & Ludo Van der Heyden**719R Stock Prices and Social Dynamics***by*Robert J. Shiller**718 The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models***by*Ray C. Fair**717R Empirical Tests of the Rationality of Economic Forecasters: A Fixed Horizons Approach***by*William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf**716 Product Warranties and Double Moral Hazard***by*Russell Cooper & T.W. Ross**715 Strategic Market Games: A Dynamic Programming Application to Money, Banking and Insurance***by*Martin Shubik**714 Plausible Outcomes for Games in Strategic Form***by*Martin Shubik**713 The Many Approaches to the Study of Monopolistic Competition***by*Martin Shubik**712 Nuclear Warfare, C_{3}I and First and Second Scenarios (A Sensitivity Analysis)***by*Martin Shubik & Bracken, J. & Tulowitzki, Haviv**711R A Mean-Variance Approach to Fundamental Valuations***by*James Tobin**710R Stability Comparisons of Estimators (5/1985 and 11/1985)***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**709 Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality***by*Paul R. Milgrom & John Roberts**708R Job Discrimination, Market Forces and the Invisibility Hypothesis***by*Paul R. Milgrom**707 Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation***by*Ray C. Fair**706 The Cooperative Form, the Value and the Allocation of Joint Costs and Benefits***by*Martin Shubik**705R Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations***by*Richard H. Clarida**704 A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results***by*Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander**703 A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models***by*Ray C. Fair & Lewis Alexander**702 Conditional Projection by Means of Kalman Filtering***by*Richard H. Clarida & Diane Coyle**701 On the Stochastic Steady-State Behavior of Optimal Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Wage Fluctuations and Incomplete Markets***by*Richard H. Clarida**700 A General Equilibrium Expression of the Paradox of Thrift***by*Christophe Chamley**699 Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in Economies with Identical Private and Social Discount Rates***by*Christophe Chamley**698 A Zero-One Result for the Least Squares Estimator***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**697 Robust Estimation of Location in a Gaussian Parametric Model: II***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**696 A Note on Biology, Time and the Golden Rule***by*Martin Shubik**694 Current Account, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model***by*Richard H. Clarida**693 Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity***by*Ray C. Fair**692 Excess Labor and the Business Cycle***by*Ray C. Fair**691 Insurance, Flexibility and Non-contingent Trades***by*Russell Cooper**690 Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a General Equilibrium Model***by*Truman F. Bewley**689 On a Variable Dimension Algorithm for the Linear Complementarity Problem***by*Ludo Van der Heyden**688R Monopoly Provision of Product Quality with Uninformed Buyers***by*Russell Cooper & Thomas W. Ross**687 Net Present Value Maximization and Imperfections in the Loan Market: A Note***by*Cynthia Van Hulle**656R Optimal Labor Contracts and the Role of Monetary Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model***by*Russell Cooper

### 1983

**723R An Everywhere Convergent Series Representation of the Distribution of Hotelling's Generalized T_{0}^{2}***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**686 Stochastic Equilibrium and Turnpike Property: The Discounted Case***by*Ramon Marimon**685 Dominance and Shareholder Unanimity: A New Approach***by*Cynthia Van Hulle**684 The Optimality of Regulated Pricing: A General Equilibrium Analysis***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**683 Finite Sample Econometrics Using ERA's***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**682 The Exact Distribution of the Stein-Rule Estimator***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**681 The Exact Distribution of Exogenous Variable Coefficient Estimators***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**680 The Exact Distribution of Zellner's SUR***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**679 On University Education in Econometrics: Remarks on an Article by Eric R. Sowey***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**678R A Note on the 'Corelessness' of Antibalance of a Game***by*Martin Shubik & Shlomo Weber**677 Intertemporally Separable Overlapping Generations Economies***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**676 Information Patterns and Nash Equilibria in Extensive Games***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**675 Strategic Resource Extraction: When Easy Doesn't Do It***by*Jeremy I. Bulow & John Geanakoplos**674 Multimarket Oligopoly***by*Jeremy I. Bulow & John Geanakoplos & Paul D. Klemperer**673R Multiperiod Insurance Contracts***by*Russell Cooper & Beth Hayes**672 Organizing Production in a Large Economy***by*Paul R. Milgrom & Robert J. Weber**671R Worker Asymmetric Information and Involuntary Unemployment***by*Russell Cooper**670 Linear Complementarity and the Average Volume of Simplicial Cones***by*Roger Howe**669 Macroeconomics Under Debate***by*James Tobin**668 Profit-Sharing in a Collusive Industry***by*Martin J. Osborne & Carolyn Pitchik**667 Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates***by*Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz**666 Fiscal Incidence in a Dynamic Life-Cycle Model with Land***by*Christophe Chamley & Wright, Brian D. Wright**665 Blockmodeling Complex Statutes: Mapping Techniques Based on Combinatorial Optimization for Analyzing Economic Legislation and Its Stress Points over Time***by*Scott A. Boorman & Paul R. Levitt**664 First Order Autoregressive Processes and Strong Mixing***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**663 The Exact Distribution of LIML: II***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**662 Monetary Policies with Increasing Returns***by*G. Chichilnisky & Geoffrey M. Heal**661 A Strategic Market Game with Transaction Costs***by*John D. Rogawski & Martin Shubik**660 Predetermined Prices and the Allocation of Social Risks***by*Costas Azariadis & Russell Cooper**647R On Allocative Distortions in Problems of Self-Selection***by*Russell Cooper

### 1982

**659 Robust and Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Location in a Stationary Strong Mixing Gaussian Parametric Model***by*Donald W.K. Andrews**658 The Exact Distribution of LIML: I***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**657 Near-Markets and Market Games***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**655 Global Stability in a Class of Markets with Three Commodities and Three Consumers***by*Masayoshi Hirota**654 Constancy and Constant Differences of Price Elasticities of Demand***by*Tjalling C. Koopmans & Hirofumi Uzawa**653 Marginal Versus Average Cost Pricing in the Presence of a Public Monopoly***by*Donald J. Brown & Geoffrey M. Heal**652 Investment Versus Savings Incentives: The Size of the Bang for the Buck and the Potential for Self-Financing Business Tax Cuts***by*Alan J. Auerbach & Lawrence Kotlikoff**651 A Geometric Explanation of the Transfer Paradox in a Stable Economy***by*John Geanakoplos & Geoffrey M. Heal**650 Stable Disequilibrium Prices: Macroeconomics and Increasing Returns I***by*Geoffrey M. Heal**649 Scarf's Procedure for Integer Programming and a Dual Simplex Algorithm***by*Philip M. White & Andrew S. Caplin & Ludo Van der Heyden**648 The Structure of Social Risk***by*William D. Nordhaus & Steven N. Durlauf**645 ERA's: A New Approach to Small Sample Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**644 Core and Competitive Equilibria with Indivisibilities***by*Martine Quinzii**643 Utility Functions for Debreu's 'Excess Demands'***by*John Geanakoplos**642 On the Disaggregation of Excess Demand Functions***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**641 Don't Bet on It***by*John Geanakoplos & James K. Sebenius**640 On Implicit Contracts and Involuntary Unemployment***by*John Geanakoplos & Takatoshi Ito**639 We Can't Disagree Forever***by*John Geanakoplos & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**638 Failure of the Alternation Theorem in Rational Approximations Over C_0(-infinity,infinity)***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**637 The Distribution of Matrix Quotients***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**636 A Bookmaker or Market Type Test for Specification in Discrete Choice Models***by*John J. Beggs**635 Information Processing and Jury Decisionmaking***by*Alvin K. Klevorick & Michael Rothschild & Christopher Winship**634R Revelation of Information in Strategic Market Games: A Critique of Rational Expectations***by*Pradeep Dubey & John Geanakoplos & Martin Shubik**632 Integral Polyhedra in Three Spaces***by*Herbert E. Scarf**631 Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria in a Private Goods Economy***by*Pradeep Dubey & J.D. Rogawski**629 Information About Moves in Extensive Games: II***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**628 Equilibria for a Three-Person Location Problem***by*Martin J. Osborne & Carolyn Pitchik**627 Naval Procurement Problems: Theory and Practice***by*Zvi A. Livne & Martin Shubik**626 On the Exact Distribution of LIML (revised and extended, see CFDP 658)***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**625 Information About Moves in Extensive Games: I***by*Pradeep Dubey & Mamoru Kaneko**624 Stochastic Games II: The Minmax Theorem***by*Curt Alfred Monash**623 Stochastic Games I: Foundations***by*Curt Alfred Monash**622 Inefficiency of Nash Equilibria: I***by*Pradeep Dubey & J.D. Rogawski**621 Exact Small Sample Theory in the Simultaneous Equations Model***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**620 Cores of Partitioning Games***by*Mamoru Kaneko & Myrna Holtz Wooders**619 Approximate Cores of a General Class of Economies: Part II. Set-Up Costs and Firm Formation in Coalition Production Economies***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**618 Approximate Cores of a General Class of Economies. Part I: Replica Games, Externalities, and Approximate Cores***by*Martin Shubik & Myrna Holtz Wooders**617 Small Sample Distribution Theory in Econometric Models of Simultaneous Equations***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**616 Macroeconomics and Fiscal Policy: Paul A. Samuelson and Modern Economics***by*James Tobin**615 How Fast Should We Graze the Global Commons?***by*William D. Nordhaus**614 The Conventionally Stable Sets in Noncooperative Games with Limited Observations: The Application to Monopoly and Oligopoly***by*Mamoru Kaneko**613R Money and Finance in the Macro-Economic Process***by*James Tobin

### 1981

**612 The Epsilon Core of a Large Game***by*Myrna Holtz Wooders**611 Macroconfusion: The Dilemmas of Economic Policy***by*William D. Nordhaus**610 Payoffs in Non-Atomic Economies: An Axiomatic Approach***by*Pradeep Dubey & Abraham Neyman**609 Marginal Densities of Instrumental Variable Estimators in the General Single Equation Case***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**608 A New Approach to Small Sample Theory***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**607 Some Remarks on the Folk Theorem in Game Theory***by*Mamoru Kaneko**606 Game Theory: The Language of Strategy?***by*Martin Shubik**605 Asset Markets, General Equilibrium and the Neutrality of Money***by*Christophe Chamley & Heracles M. Polemarchakis**604 Economic Policy in the Face of Declining Productivity Growth***by*William D. Nordhaus**603 Schumpeterian Dynamics II. Technological Progress, Firm Growth and 'Economic Selection'***by*Katsuhito Iwai**602 Schumpeterian Dynamics I. An Evolutionary Model of Innovation and Imitation***by*Katsuhito Iwai**601 The Conventionally Stable Sets in Noncooperative Games with Limited Observations: Definitions and Introductory Arguments***by*Mamoru Kaneko**600 Algorithms for the Linear Complementarity Problem Which Allow an Arbitrary Starting Point***by*Dolf A.J.J. Talman & Ludo Van der Heyden**599 The Optimal Progressive Income Tax -- The Existence and the Limit Tax Rates***by*Mamoru Kaneko**598 On the Infinite Welfare Cost of Inflation and Other Second Order Effects***by*Christophe Chamley**597 Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares***by*Ray C. Fair**596 Arbitrage Pricing Theory in a Finite Economy***by*John J. Beggs**595 Approximate Equilibria with Bounds Independent of Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson & M. Ali Khan & Salim Rashid**594 Mandatory Retirement Saving and Capital Formation***by*Walter Dolde & James Tobin**593 Market Structure in the 'Research and Development Phase'***by*John J. Beggs**592 Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries***by*Ray C. Fair**591 Efficient Stationary Taxation and Intertemporal General Equilibrium***by*Christophe Chamley & Douglas Downing**590 Strong Core Theorems with Nonconvex Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson**589 Interest Rate Policies and Informational Efficiency***by*Laurence Weiss**588 The Dynamic Interaction Between Industry Level Profits and Research and Development***by*John J. Beggs**587 Ratio Equilibrium in an Economy with an Externality***by*Yozo Ito & Mamoru Kaneko**586 Marginal Cost Pricing, Taxation and Subsidies in Urban Transport***by*John J. Beggs**585 Properties of Manipulative Government Forecasts***by*John J. Beggs**584 The Demand for Telephone Services in Australia and the Welfare Implications of Alternative Pricing Policies***by*John J. Beggs**583 An Empirical Note on the Disposition of U.S. Corporations to Undertake Research and Development Expenditures***by*John J. Beggs**582 Cake Slicing and Revealed Government Preference***by*John J. Beggs & Samuel Strong**581 Existence of Equilibrium in a Hyperfinite Exchange Economy: I and II***by*Donald J. Brown & Lucinda M. Lewis**580 Entrepreneurial Abilities and Liabilities in a Model of Self-Selection***by*Christophe Chamley**579 Equilibria of a Two-Person Non-Zero Sum Noisy Game of Timing***by*Carolyn Pitchik**578 Core Theory with Strongly Convex Preferences***by*Robert M. Anderson**577 Society, Land, Love or Money (A Strategic Model of How to Glue the Generations Together)***by*Martin Shubik**576 Duopoly with Differentiated Products and Entry Barriers***by*Kofi O. Nti & Martin Shubik**551 Incentive Arbitration and Time-Related Bargaining Costs***by*Zvi A. Livne**550 An Extension of the Nash Bargaining Problem: Introducing Time-Related Bargaining Costs***by*Zvi A. Livne

### 1980

**575 A Path Following Procedure for Finding a Point in the Core of a Balanced N-Person Game***by*Ludo Van der Heyden**574 Additively Decomposed Quasiconvex Functions***by*Gerard Debreu & Tjalling C. Koopmans**573 On the Consistency of Non-Linear FIML***by*Phillips, Peter C.B.**572 A Market Value Approach to Approximate Equilibria***by*Robert M. Anderson**571 Housing Market with Indivisibility***by*Mamoru Kaneko**570 National Savings, Economic Welfare, and the Structure of Taxation***by*Alan J. Auerbach & Lawrence Kotlikoff**569 The Adequacy of Savings***by*Lawrence Kotlikoff & Avia Spivak & Lawrence H. Summers**568 On the Behavior of Inconsistent Instrumental Variable Estimators***by*Esfandier Maasoumi & Peter C.B. Phillips**567 Characteristic Functions and the Tail Behavior of Probability Distributions***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**566 A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for the Nonemptiness of the Cores of Partitioning Games***by*Mamoru Kaneko**565 Thinking About Carbon Dioxide: Theoretical and Empirical Aspects of Optimal Control Strategies***by*William D. Nordhaus**564 Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models***by*Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor**563 The Central Assignment Game and the Assignment Markets***by*Mamoru Kaneko**562 Best Uniform Approximation to Probability Densities in Econometrics***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**561 The Characteristic Function of the F Distribution***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**560 On a Lemma of Amemiya***by*Peter C.B. Phillips**559 Perfect or Robust Noncooperative Equilibrium: A Search for the Philosophers Stone?***by*Martin Shubik**558 Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle***by*Sanford Grossman & Laurence Weiss**557 Intergenerational Political Economy (A Game Theoretic Model of How to Glue the Generations Together)***by*Martin Shubik**556 Extension of a Dynamical Model of Political Equilibrium***by*Gerald H. Kramer**555 Policy Responses to the Productivity Slowdown***by*William D. Nordhaus**554 Optimal Intertemporal Taxation and the Public Debt***by*Christophe Chamley**553 The Welfare Cost of Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Economy***by*Christophe Chamley**552 A Model of Output, Employment, Capital Formation and Inflation***by*R.W. Bailey & V.B. Hall & Peter C.B. Phillips**549 An Application of the Khachian-Shor Algorithm to a Class of Linear Complementary Problems***by*Ilan Adler & Richard P. McLean & J. Scott Provan**548 A Model of U.S. Financial and Nonfinancial Economic Behavior***by*David Backus & William C. Brainard & Gary Smith & James Tobin**547 Weakly Democratic Regular Tax Equilibria in a Local Public Goods Economy with Perfect Consumer Mobility***by*Donald K. Richter**546 Output Supply, Employment, and Intra-Industry Wage Dispersion***by*Philip H. Dybvig & Gerald David Jaynes**545 Inequality, Exploitation, Justice and Socialism: A Theoretical-Historical Approach***by*John E. Roemer**544 Rawlsian Justice as the Core of a Game***by*Roemer, John E. Roemer & Roger Howe**543 Exploitation and Class: Part II, Capitalist Economy***by*John E. Roemer