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Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises

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Abstract

We analyze the effect of risk aversion, wealth and portfolios on the behavior of investors in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model generates a rich set of striking theoretical predictions. For example, risk aversion makes currency crises significantly less likely; increased wealth makes crises more likely; and foreign direct investment (illiquid investments in the target currency) make crises more likely. Our results extend linearly to a heterogeneous agent population.

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  • Bernardo Guimaraes & Stephen Morris, 2003. "Risk and Wealth in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Crises," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1433, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1433
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    1. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
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    5. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Morris, Stephen, 2007. "Risk and wealth in a model of self-fulfilling currency attacks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2205-2230, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann, 2009. "Acceding Countries: The Road to the Euro," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Seppo Honkapohja & Frank Westermann (ed.), Designing the European Model, chapter 7, pages 229-258, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2004. "EEAG European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo: Report on the European Economy 2004," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 1-148, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crisis; Sunspots; Global games; Risk aversion; Wealth; Portfolio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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