Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s
This paper examines how much structural change there was in the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that there was only one major structural change, namely the huge increase in stock prices relative to earnings. All other large changes can be explained by this change. There is no obvious reason for the large increase in stock prices relative to earnings. Increased productivity growth does not appear to be an answer since the data show that there was only a modest increase in long run productivity growth in the last half of the 1990s. Also, earnings growth and the share of earnings in the economy were not unusually large.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:||Mar 2003|
|Publication status:||Published in Business Economics (January 2004), 39(1): 43-53|
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- William D. Nordhaus, 2001.
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NBER Working Papers
8096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
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- Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October.
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