Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill
This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of the U.S. stimulus bill passed in February 2009. The analysis has the advantage of taking into account many endogenous effects. Real U.S. output is estimated to be $554 billion larger when summed over the 12-year period 2009:1-2020:4 (0.29 percent of the total sum of output). The average number of jobs is 509 thousand larger (0.37 percent). There is some redistribution of output and employment away from 2012-2015. At the end of 2020 the federal government debt is larger by $637 billion in real terms (the debt/GDP ratio is larger by 3.19 percentage points), which may increase the risk of negative asset-market reactions.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2010|
|Publication status:||Published in Contemporary Economic Policy (October 2010), 439-452|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ray C. Fair, 2010.
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits,"
NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 25, pages 89-108
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1727, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 2010.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 13542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation," Economics Working Papers 1039, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2007.
- Ray Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2443, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Oct 2009.
- Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
- Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C, 1970. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 507-516, May.
- Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1706, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2010. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Matthew C. Regan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.