IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/1683.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Many models of semiparametric multivariate survival functions are characterized by nonparametric marginal survival functions and parametric copula functions, where different copulas imply different dependence structures. This paper considers estimation and model selection for these semiparametric multivariate survival functions, allowing for misspecified parametric copulas and data subject to general censoring. We first establish convergence of the two-step estimator of the copula parameter to the pseudo-true value defined as the value of the parameter that minimizes the KLIC between the parametric copula induced multivariate density and the unknown true density. We then derive its root--n asymptotically normal distribution and provide a simple consistent asymptotic variance estimator by accounting for the impact of the nonparametric estimation of the marginal survival functions. These results are used to establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application of the model selection test to the Loss-ALAE insurance data set is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Demian Pouzo & Zhiliang Ying, 2008. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1683, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d16/d1683.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1282, July.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
    3. Dabrowska, Dorota M., 1989. "Kaplan-Meier estimate on the plane: Weak convergence, LIL, and the bootstrap," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 308-325, May.
    4. White,Halbert, 1994. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521252805.
    5. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2006. "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1228-1240, September.
    6. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464.
    7. Klugman, Stuart A. & Parsa, Rahul, 1999. "Fitting bivariate loss distributions with copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 139-148, March.
    8. R.D. Gill, 1980. "Censoring and Stochastic Integrals," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 34(2), pages 124-124, June.
    9. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    10. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
    11. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2007. "A Model Selection Test For Bivariate Failure-Time Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 414-439, June.
    12. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    13. Edward Frees & Emiliano Valdez, 1998. "Understanding Relationships Using Copulas," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tao Sun & Yu Cheng & Ying Ding, 2023. "An information ratio‐based goodness‐of‐fit test for copula models on censored data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 1713-1725, September.
    2. Barthel, Nicole & Geerdens, Candida & Killiches, Matthias & Janssen, Paul & Czado, Claudia, 2018. "Vine copula based likelihood estimation of dependence patterns in multivariate event time data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 109-127.
    3. Wu, Weiou & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Modelling asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1137-1149.
    4. Candida Geerdens & Gerda Claeskens & Paul Janssen, 2016. "Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 363-381, July.
    5. Michel Denuit & Yang Lu, 2021. "Wishart‐gamma random effects models with applications to nonlife insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 443-481, June.
    6. Gabriel GAIDUCHEVICI, 2015. "A Method For Systemic Risk Estimation Based On Cds Indices," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 103-124, June.
    7. Cheng, Guang & Zhou, Lan & Chen, Xiaohong & Huang, Jianhua Z., 2014. "Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 330-344.
    8. Juan Lin & Ximing Wu, 2015. "Smooth Tests of Copula Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 128-143, January.
    9. Gery Geenens & Arthur Charpentier & Davy Paindaveine, 2014. "Probit Transformation for Nonparametric Kernel Estimation of the Copula Density," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-23, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Tao Sun & Yi Liu & Richard J. Cook & Wei Chen & Ying Ding, 2019. "Copula-based score test for bivariate time-to-event data, with application to a genetic study of AMD progression," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 546-568, July.
    11. Raza, Hamid & Wu, Weiou, 2018. "Quantile dependence between the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets – Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 286-296.
    12. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    13. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    2. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    3. Klochkov, Yegor & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Xu, Xiu, 2019. "Localizing Multivariate CAViaR," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-007, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    4. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    5. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Long, Xiangdong, 2009. "Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 207-218, June.
    6. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2021. "Model risk management: Valuation and governance of pseudo-models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-22.
    7. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    8. Xiaohong Chen & Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2009. "Copula-based nonlinear quantile autoregression," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(s1), pages 50-67, January.
    9. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2015. "An inverted U-shaped crude oil price return-implied volatility relationship," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 28-45.
    10. Eric Hillebrand & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2016. "Nonlinearity, Breaks, and Long-Range Dependence in Time-Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 23-41, January.
    11. Stefania D'Amico, 2004. "Density Estimation and Combination under Model Ambiguity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 273, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Wanling Huang & Artem Prokhorov, 2014. "A Goodness-of-fit Test for Copulas," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 751-771, October.
    13. Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang & Spokoiny, Vladimir, 2009. "Inhomogeneous Dependence Modeling with Time-Varying Copulae," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 224-234.
    14. Jinyu Zhang & Kang Gao & Yong Li & Qiaosen Zhang, 2022. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Methods for Copula Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 99-124, June.
    15. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 98-134.
    16. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2023. "Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3089-3119, June.
    17. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    18. Komunjer, Ivana & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2016. "Existence And Characterization Of Conditional Density Projections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 947-987, August.
    19. Sukjin Han & Sungwon Lee, 2019. "Estimation in a generalization of bivariate probit models with dummy endogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 994-1015, September.
    20. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate survival models; Misspecified copulas; Penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio; Fixed or random censoring; Kaplan-Meier estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.