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Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship

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Abstract

Many models of semiparametric multivariate survival functions are characterized by nonparametric marginal survival functions and parametric copula functions, where different copulas imply different dependence structures. This paper considers estimation and model selection for these semiparametric multivariate survival functions, allowing for misspecified parametric copulas and data subject to general censoring. We first establish convergence of the two-step estimator of the copula parameter to the pseudo-true value defined as the value of the parameter that minimizes the KLIC between the parametric copula induced multivariate density and the unknown true density. We then derive its root--n asymptotically normal distribution and provide a simple consistent asymptotic variance estimator by accounting for the impact of the nonparametric estimation of the marginal survival functions. These results are used to establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application of the model selection test to the Loss-ALAE insurance data set is provided.

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  • Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Demian Pouzo & Zhiliang Ying, 2008. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1683, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1683
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    1. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Stepwise Multiple Testing as Formalized Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1237-1282, July.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
    3. Dabrowska, Dorota M., 1989. "Kaplan-Meier estimate on the plane: Weak convergence, LIL, and the bootstrap," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 308-325, May.
    4. Sin, Chor-Yiu & White, Halbert, 1996. "Information criteria for selecting possibly misspecified parametric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 207-225.
    5. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2007. "A Model Selection Test For Bivariate Failure-Time Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 414-439, June.
    6. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, April.
    7. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2006. "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1228-1240, September.
    8. Klugman, Stuart A. & Parsa, Rahul, 1999. "Fitting bivariate loss distributions with copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 139-148, March.
    9. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    10. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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    1. repec:eee:csdana:v:117:y:2018:i:c:p:109-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1137-1149 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Candida Geerdens & Gerda Claeskens & Paul Janssen, 2016. "Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 363-381, July.
    4. Cheng, Guang & Zhou, Lan & Chen, Xiaohong & Huang, Jianhua Z., 2014. "Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 330-344.
    5. Gery Geenens & Arthur Charpentier & Davy Paindaveine, 2014. "Probit Transformation for Nonparametric Kernel Estimation of the Copula Density," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-23, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    7. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate survival models; Misspecified copulas; Penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio; Fixed or random censoring; Kaplan-Meier estimator;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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