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Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship

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Many models of semiparametric multivariate survival functions are characterized by nonparametric marginal survival functions and parametric copula functions, where different copulas imply different dependence structures. This paper considers estimation and model selection for these semiparametric multivariate survival functions, allowing for misspecified parametric copulas and data subject to general censoring. We first establish convergence of the two-step estimator of the copula parameter to the pseudo-true value defined as the value of the parameter that minimizes the KLIC between the parametric copula induced multivariate density and the unknown true density. We then derive its root--n asymptotically normal distribution and provide a simple consistent asymptotic variance estimator by accounting for the impact of the nonparametric estimation of the marginal survival functions. These results are used to establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application of the model selection test to the Loss-ALAE insurance data set is provided.

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  • Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan & Demian Pouzo & Zhiliang Ying, 2008. "Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1683, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1683
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    2. Barthel, Nicole & Geerdens, Candida & Killiches, Matthias & Janssen, Paul & Czado, Claudia, 2018. "Vine copula based likelihood estimation of dependence patterns in multivariate event time data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 109-127.
    3. Michel Denuit & Yang Lu, 2021. "Wishart‐gamma random effects models with applications to nonlife insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 443-481, June.
    4. Cheng, Guang & Zhou, Lan & Chen, Xiaohong & Huang, Jianhua Z., 2014. "Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 330-344.
    5. Tao Sun & Yi Liu & Richard J. Cook & Wei Chen & Ying Ding, 2019. "Copula-based score test for bivariate time-to-event data, with application to a genetic study of AMD progression," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 546-568, July.
    6. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    7. Wu, Weiou & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2017. "Modelling asymmetric conditional dependence between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1137-1149.
    8. Candida Geerdens & Gerda Claeskens & Paul Janssen, 2016. "Copula based flexible modeling of associations between clustered event times," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 363-381, July.
    9. Gabriel GAIDUCHEVICI, 2015. "A Method For Systemic Risk Estimation Based On Cds Indices," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 15, pages 103-124, June.
    10. Juan Lin & Ximing Wu, 2015. "Smooth Tests of Copula Specifications," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 128-143, January.
    11. Gery Geenens & Arthur Charpentier & Davy Paindaveine, 2014. "Probit Transformation for Nonparametric Kernel Estimation of the Copula Density," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-23, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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    13. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate survival models; Misspecified copulas; Penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio; Fixed or random censoring; Kaplan-Meier estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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