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Tilted Nonparametric Estimation of Volatility Functions

This paper proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local level nonparametric regression applied to squared mean regression residuals. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the local linear estimator in the case of unbounded support but, unlike that estimator, is restricted to be non-negative in finite samples. It is fully adaptive to the unknown conditional mean function. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the estimator. Two empirical applications are reported. One uses cross section data and studies the relationship between occupational prestige and income. The other uses time series data on Treasury bill rates to fit the total volatility function in a continuous-time jump diffusion model.

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File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d16/d1612.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1612.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2010
Publication status: Published in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (October 2011), 29(4): 518–528
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1612
Note: CFP 1337.
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Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/

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Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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  1. Xu, Ke-Li & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2008. "Adaptive estimation of autoregressive models with time-varying variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 265-280, January.
  2. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
  3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Cao, Charles & Chen, Zhiwu, 1997. " Empirical Performance of Alternative Option Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2003-49, December.
  4. Yu, K. & Jones, M.C., 2004. "Likelihood-Based Local Linear Estimation of the Conditional Variance Function," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 139-144, January.
  5. Federico M. Bandi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2003. "Fully Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusion Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 241-283, January.
  6. Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2002. "Nonparametric Estimation Of Volatility Functions: The Local Exponential Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 985-991, August.
  7. Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, 02.
  8. Stanton, Richard, 1997. " A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1973-2002, December.
  9. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
  10. Xu, Ke-Li, 2010. "Reweighted Functional Estimation Of Diffusion Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 541-563, April.
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  12. Wolfgang HÄRDLE & A. TSYBAKOV, 1995. "Local Polynomial Estimators of the Volatility Function in Nonparametric Autoregression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,42, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  13. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-60, May.
  14. Cai, Zongwu, 2002. "Regression Quantiles For Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 169-192, February.
  15. Bandi, Federico M. & Nguyen, Thong H., 2003. "On the functional estimation of jump-diffusion models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 293-328.
  16. Fan J. & Zhang C., 2003. "A Reexamination of Diffusion Estimators With Applications to Financial Model Validation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 118-134, January.
  17. Cai, Zongwu, 2001. "Weighted Nadaraya-Watson regression estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 307-318, February.
  18. Hansen, Bruce E, 1995. "Regression with Nonstationary Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1113-32, September.
  19. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, 06.
  20. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  21. Gozalo, Pedro & Linton, Oliver, 2000. "Local nonlinear least squares: Using parametric information in nonparametric regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 63-106, November.
  22. Kim, Woocheol & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "The Live Method For Generalized Additive Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(06), pages 1094-1139, December.
  23. Davidson, James, 1994. "Stochastic Limit Theory: An Introduction for Econometricians," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774037.
  24. Moloche, Guillermo, 2001. "Local Nonparametric Estimation of Scalar Diffusions," MPRA Paper 46154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Martins-Filho, Carlos & Yao, Feng, 2007. "Nonparametric frontier estimation via local linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 283-319, November.
  26. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-09, January.
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