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Citations for "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?"

by Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel

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  1. Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
  2. Renato Filosa, 2003. "Shock monetari e reali, ciclo economico e valore dell' euro," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 295-324.
  3. Charles Engel, 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," NBER Working Papers 5766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  5. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2001. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Working Papers 01-08, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  7. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  8. Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate," International Finance 9508001, EconWPA, revised 28 Aug 1995.
  9. Robert J. Hodrick, 1987. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
  11. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
  12. Fabio Canova & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hacker, Scott & Kim, Hyunjoo & Månsson, Kristofer, 2010. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: a Wavelet Approach," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 217, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  14. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
  15. Lubecke, Thomas H. & Nam, Kyung Doo & Markland, Robert E. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1998. "Combining foreign exchange rate forecasts using neural networks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-27.
  16. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," International Finance 9508002, EconWPA.
  19. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jiang, Christine X., 1995. "Foreign exchange returns over short and long horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 267-282.
  20. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317.
  21. Néstor A. Le Clech, 2006. "Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 59-79, July.
  22. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  23. Ray C. Fair, 1997. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1168, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  24. Richard Meese & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1985. "Was it real? : the exchange rate-interest differential relation, 1973 - 1984," International Finance Discussion Papers 268, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. L. Copeland & Ping Wang, 2000. "Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 298-310.
  26. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2008. "What Drives the Dynamic Conditional Correlation of Foreign Exchange and Equity Returns?," MPRA Paper 7174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  27. John Jackson & Henry Thompson & Juliet Zheng, 2005. "Third country news in the monetary model of the exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 757-764.
  28. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2007. "Global imbalances and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 705-709.
  29. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2008. "Exchange Rates Predictability in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 16580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  31. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  32. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  33. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Panthaki, Freyan, 2006. "What defines `news' in foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 168-198, February.
  34. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
  35. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
  36. Barnett, Richard C. & Ho, Mun S., 1996. "Sunspots, currency substitution, and inflationary finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 73-93, August.
  37. Andersson, Michael K. & Karlsson, Gustav & Svensson, Josef, 2007. "The Riksbank’s Forecasting Performance," Working Paper Series 218, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  38. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  42. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  43. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.
  44. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
  45. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002736, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  46. Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
  47. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Monopolistic competition, relative prices, and output adjustment in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-28, March.
  48. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  49. Apergis, Nicholas & Zestos, George K. & Shaltayev, Dmitriy S., 2012. "Do market fundamentals determine the Dollar–Euro exchange rate?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15.
  50. Ca'Zorzi, Michele & Muck, Jakub & Rubaszek, Michal, 2015. "Real exchange rate forecasting and ppp: this time the random walk loses," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 229, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  51. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
  52. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2009. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," Working Papers 09.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  53. Annika Alexius & Erik Post, 2008. "Exchange rates and asymmetric shocks in small open economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 527-541, November.
  54. Joshua Aizenman, 1985. "Monopolistic Competition and Deviations from PPP," NBER Working Papers 1552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  56. Marcel Fratzscher & Dagfinn Rime & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2014. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 991, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  57. Fariña Gómez, Beatriz & Rojo García, José Luis, 2006. "Características de las Distribuciones Mensuales del "Ciclo de Ambiente" de la Economia Española," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 397-425, Abril.
  58. Peter Rowland, . "Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk a Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  59. Raknerud, Arvid & Skare, Øivind, 2012. "Indirect inference methods for stochastic volatility models based on non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3260-3275.
  60. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
  61. Hsiu-Hsin Ko & Masao Ogaki, 2013. "Granger Causality from Exchange Rates to Fundamentals: What Does the Bootstrap Test Show Us?," RCER Working Papers 577, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  62. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
  63. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "The equilibrium to exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 12-30.
  64. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  65. Garry J. Schinasi & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 1987. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," International Finance Discussion Papers 301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  66. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446.
  67. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
  68. Andrés Sagner, 2011. "El Índice Cartera Vencida como Medida de Riesgo de Crédito: Análisis y Aplicación al Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 618, Central Bank of Chile.
  69. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Éric Jondeau, 1996. "Les modèles monétaires de taux de change : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 53-65.
  72. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  73. Roberts, Mark A., 1995. "Imperfect information: Some implications for modelling the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 375-383, May.
  74. John Ammer & Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "Are banks market timers or market makers? Explaining foreign exchange trading profits," International Finance Discussion Papers 484, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  75. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA.
  76. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "Asymmetric effects of monetary indicators on the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 143-159, April.
  77. HeeJoon Kang, 1992. "Forward exchange rates as unbiased predictors of future spot rates a review and re-interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
  78. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
  79. Schmidt, Robert & Leitner, Johannes, 2004. "A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices : Are there substantial differences?," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 49, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  80. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
  81. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 2008. "Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  82. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  83. Anita Mirchandani, 2013. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 172-179.
  84. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
  85. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
  86. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
  87. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
  88. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  89. Sengupta, Jati K., 2002. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6kj5q7m5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  90. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  91. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
  92. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "A simple model of international capital flows, exchange rate risk, and portfolio choice," Working Papers 2000-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  93. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  94. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, EconWPA.
  95. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  96. Walter Wasserfallen & Hans Kyburz, 1985. "The behavior of flexible exchange rates in the short run — A systematic investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 646-660, December.
  97. Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Dunis, Christian, 2014. "Stochastic and genetic neural network combinations in trading and hybrid time-varying leverage effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 21-54.
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