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Citations for "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?"

by Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff & Jacob Frenkel

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  1. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
  2. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
  3. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "The equilibrium to exchange rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 12-30.
  5. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
  6. Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Standard Monetary Model and the Variability of the Deutschemark-DollarExchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 2102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kei Kawakami, 2008. "Forecast Selection by Conditional Predictive Ability Tests: An Application to the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  8. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
  9. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, . "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-08, FEDEA.
  10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 125-173 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fabio Canova & Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "On Time-Series Properties of Time-Varying Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2678, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. John Ammer & Allan D. Brunner, 1994. "Are banks market timers or market makers? Explaining foreign exchange trading profits," International Finance Discussion Papers 484, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1997. "Integration, Cointegration and the Forecast Consistency of Structural Exchange Rate Models," NBER Working Papers 5943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Rogoff, Kenneth, 2007. "Global imbalances and exchange rate adjustment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 705-709.
  15. Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
  16. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  17. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 7309, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  20. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984," NBER Working Papers 1732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Galindo, Arturo J., 2000. "Estimating credibility in Colombia's exchange-rate target zone," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 473-484, December.
  22. Peter Rowland, . "Forecasting the USD/COP Exchange Rate: A Random Walk a Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 253, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  23. L. Copeland & Ping Wang, 2000. "Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 298-310.
  24. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
  25. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
  26. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jiang, Christine X., 1995. "Foreign exchange returns over short and long horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 267-282.
  28. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
  29. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Asymmetric Shocks in Small Open Economies," Working Paper Series 2005:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  30. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 6694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Pollock, Andrew C. & Macaulay, Alex & Onkal-Atay, Dilek & Wilkie-Thomson, Mary E., 1999. "Evaluating predictive performance of judgemental extrapolations from simulated currency series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 281-293, April.
  32. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446.
  33. Charles Engel & James D. Hamilton, 1989. "Long Swings in the Exchange Rate: Are they in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," NBER Working Papers 3165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Dunis, Christian, 2014. "Stochastic and genetic neural network combinations in trading and hybrid time-varying leverage effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 21-54.
  35. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  37. Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
  38. U. Ozlale & E. Yeldan, 2004. "Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1839-1849.
  39. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  40. Charles Engel, 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," NBER Working Papers 5766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. HeeJoon Kang, 1992. "Forward exchange rates as unbiased predictors of future spot rates a review and re-interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
  42. Roberts, Mark A., 1995. "Imperfect information: Some implications for modelling the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 375-383, May.
  43. Andrés Sagner, 2011. "El Índice Cartera Vencida como Medida de Riesgo de Crédito: Análisis y Aplicación al Caso de Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 618, Central Bank of Chile.
  44. Anita Mirchandani, 2013. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 172-179.
  45. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  46. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
  48. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "Asymmetric effects of monetary indicators on the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 143-159, April.
  49. Aizenman, Joshua, 1989. "Monopolistic competition, relative prices, and output adjustment in the open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 5-28, March.
  50. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
  51. Joshua Aizenman, 1985. "Monopolistic Competition and Deviations from PPP," NBER Working Papers 1552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Hacker, Scott & Kim, Hyunjoo & Månsson, Kristofer, 2010. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: a Wavelet Approach," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 217, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
  53. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  54. Lubecke, Thomas H. & Nam, Kyung Doo & Markland, Robert E. & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 1998. "Combining foreign exchange rate forecasts using neural networks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-27.
  55. Cagri Sarikaya & Fethi Ogunc & Dilara Ece & Hakan Kara & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "Estimating Output Gap for the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 0503, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  56. Éric Jondeau, 1996. "Les modèles monétaires de taux de change : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 53-65.
  57. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
  58. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002736, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  59. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Kawakami, Kei, 2013. "Conditional forecast selection from many forecasts: An application to the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-18.
  61. Apergis, Nicholas & Zestos, George K. & Shaltayev, Dmitriy S., 2012. "Do market fundamentals determine the Dollar–Euro exchange rate?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-15.
  62. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.
  63. Renato Filosa, 2003. "Shock monetari e reali, ciclo economico e valore dell' euro," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 56(223), pages 295-324.
  64. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  65. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
  67. Shang-Jin Wei & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?," NBER Working Papers 3910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
  69. John Jackson & Henry Thompson & Juliet Zheng, 2005. "Third country news in the monetary model of the exchange rate," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 757-764.
  70. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
  71. Andersson, Michael K. & Karlsson, Gustav & Svensson, Josef, 2007. "The Riksbank’s Forecasting Performance," Working Paper Series 218, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  72. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "A simple model of international capital flows, exchange rate risk, and portfolio choice," Working Papers 2000-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  73. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  74. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2008. "What Drives the Dynamic Conditional Correlation of Foreign Exchange and Equity Returns?," MPRA Paper 7174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Walter Wasserfallen & Hans Kyburz, 1985. "The behavior of flexible exchange rates in the short run — A systematic investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 646-660, December.
  76. Fariña Gómez, Beatriz & Rojo García, José Luis, 2006. "Características de las Distribuciones Mensuales del "Ciclo de Ambiente" de la Economia Española," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 397-425, Abril.
  77. Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Whither the Yen? Implications of an intertemporal model of the Yen/Dollar rate," International Finance 9508001, EconWPA, revised 28 Aug 1995.
  78. Sarantis, Nicholas, 2006. "On the short-term predictability of exchange rates: A BVAR time-varying parameters approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2257-2279, August.
  79. Schmidt, Robert & Leitner, Johannes, 2004. "A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices : Are there substantial differences?," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 49, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  80. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  81. Sengupta, Jati K., 2002. "Modelling Exchange Rate Volatility," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6kj5q7m5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  82. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA.
  83. Barnett, Richard C. & Ho, Mun S., 1996. "Sunspots, currency substitution, and inflationary finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 73-93, August.
  84. Sergio Da Silva, 2004. "International Finance, Levy Distributions, and the Econophysics of Exchange Rates," International Finance 0405018, EconWPA.
  85. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  86. Chinn, Menzie D. & Meese, Richard A., 1995. "Banking on currency forecasts: How predictable is change in money?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 161-178, February.
  87. Raknerud, Arvid & Skare, Øivind, 2012. "Indirect inference methods for stochastic volatility models based on non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3260-3275.
  88. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
  89. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2008. "Exchange Rates Predictability in Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 16580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  90. Macdonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1996. "Currency forecasters are heterogeneous: confirmation and consequences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 665-685, October.
  91. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 2008. "Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6714, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  92. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  93. Ray C. Fair, 1997. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1168, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  94. Néstor A. Le Clech, 2006. "Ajuste de los fundamentos del modelo monetario en la determinación del tipo de cambio argentino," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 59-79, July.
  95. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
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