The determinants of currency market forecasts: an empirical study
Empirical studies using surveys of exchange rate expectations have become very popular in the literature. The majority have concluded that short-term currency market activity appears to be inconsistent with the standard neoclassical characterization and that, as a consequence, economists should shift their attention to the long run. This paper, rather than using foreign exchange surveys as an argument for ignoring the short run, treats them as a means of understanding it. To that end, an empirical test is conducted in which the survey results serve as the dependent variable. The results indicate that the expectational variables are not random, but exhibit a pattern. It is further shown that psychological factors play an important role in determining expectations, thus offering support for the Post Keynesian view of currency markets.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 1988.
"Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations,"
BNL Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)