The determinants of currency market forecasts: an empirical study
Empirical studies using surveys of exchange rate expectations have become very popular in the literature. The majority have concluded that short-term currency market activity appears to be inconsistent with the standard neoclassical characterization and that, as a consequence, economists should shift their attention to the long run. This paper, rather than using foreign exchange surveys as an argument for ignoring the short run, treats them as a means of understanding it. To that end, an empirical test is conducted in which the survey results serve as the dependent variable. The results indicate that the expectational variables are not random, but exhibit a pattern. It is further shown that psychological factors play an important role in determining expectations, thus offering support for the Post Keynesian view of currency markets.
Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
- John T. Harvey, 1996. "Orthodox Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination: A Survey," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 18(4), pages 567-583, July.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 1988.
"Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations,"
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:33-49. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Nguyen)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Chris Nguyen to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.