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Kamatkülönbség és árfolyam-várakozások az előre bejelentett kúszó árfolyamrendszerben
[Interest differential and exchange rate expectations in the preannounced crawling band system of Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Darvas, Zsolt

Abstract

A pénzügyi piacok folyamatait vizsgálva, érdekes rejtély tárul fel: a korábban több szempontból jónak ítélhető kamat- és árfolyam-várakozások a kúszó árfolyamrendszer bevezetése után tévesnek bizonyultak. Vajon a piac szereplői nem hittek az előre bejelentett leértékelés megtartásában, vagy más tényezők okozták a várakozások hibáját? A tanulmány erre a kérdésre keresi a választ a kamatparitás empirikus vizsgálatával, valamint a pénz- és devizapiaci folyamatok tanulmányozásával. A következtetés negatív: a számítások alapján mind az 1995. március előtti, mind az azt követő időszakban a fedezetlen kamatparitás hipotézise elvethető. Mindazonáltal a pénzügyi piacok tanulóévei tanulságos és sokszor talán izgalmasnak nevezhető tapasztalatokkal szolgálnak a pénzügyi hatóságok és a befektetők számára.

Suggested Citation

  • Darvas, Zsolt, 1996. "Kamatkülönbség és árfolyam-várakozások az előre bejelentett kúszó árfolyamrendszerben [Interest differential and exchange rate expectations in the preannounced crawling band system of Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 920-947.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély” [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
    2. Ábel, István & Kóbor, Ádám, 2008. "Kamatkülönbözet, spekulációs profit és árfolyam-változékonyság [Interest-rate differentials, speculative capital flows and exchange-rate volatility]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 941-961.
    3. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 1999. "A nemzetközi pénzügyi válságok tovaterjedése különböző árfolyamrendszerekben [The spread of international financial crises under various exchange-rate systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 945-968.
    4. Barabás, Gyula, 1996. "Kamatparitás lebegő és csúszó leértékeléses árfolyamrendszerben [Interest parity in floating and in crawling-peg foreign exchange rate régimes]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 972-994.
    5. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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