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Citations for "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time"

by Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon

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  1. Lucian Croitoru, 2014. "Will there be Deflation and Current Account Surpluses?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-21, October.
  2. Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields & Tony Garratt, 2005. "Real time Representations of the Output Gap," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 26, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2006. "The Taylor rule and the appointment cycle of the chairperson of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 55-66.
  4. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2009. "Schätzung der Outputlücke," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(2), pages 55-67, June.
  5. Kamada, Koichiro, 2004. "Real-Time Estimation of the Output Gap in Japan and its Usefulness for Inflation Forecasting and Policymaking," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Gerit Vogt, 2007. "Analyse der Prognoseeigenschaften von ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren unter Echtzeitbedingungen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 227(1), pages 87-101, February.
  7. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 2006-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  9. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  10. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data," Research Working Paper RWP 07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  13. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 353-370.
  14. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 243-251, 02.
  15. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
  16. Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye & Douglas Laxton, 2002. "Monetary Policy Credibility and the Unemployment-Inflation Tradeoff; Some Evidence From 17 Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/220, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Michael W. McCracken & Todd E. Clark, 2003. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 183, Society for Computational Economics.
  18. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  19. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  20. Troy Matheson, 2006. "Phillips curve forecasting in a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  21. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Combining Forecasts from Nested Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 303-329, 06.
  22. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Working Paper 2003-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Gerberding, Christina & Worms, Andreas & Seitz, Franz, 2004. "How the Bundesbank really conducted monetary policy: An analysis based on real-time data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  24. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2004. "An estimation of the euro area potential output with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2004-14, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  25. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  26. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  27. Paloviita, Maritta & Mayes, David, 2005. "The use of real-time information in Phillips-curve relationships for the euro area," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 415-434, December.
  28. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun, 2010. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  30. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  31. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2011. "Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination," Working Paper Series 1384, European Central Bank.
  32. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  33. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  34. Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014. "Zero lower bound, ECB interest rate policy and the financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 865-886, May.
  35. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1089, European Central Bank.
  37. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "A real-time historical database for the OECD," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 96, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  39. Richard G. Anderson, 2006. "Replicability, real-time data, and the science of economic research: FRED, ALFRED, and VDC," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 81-93.
  40. Ana Beatriz Galv�o, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  41. Fernández, Adriana Z. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "The changing nature of the U.S. economic influence in the World," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 196-209, March.
  42. Andreas Billmeier, 2006. "Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidence on the Finnish Output Gap," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 69-83, Autumn.
  43. Ellen E. Meade & Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "The Phillips curve and US monetary policy: what the FOMC transcripts tell us," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(2), pages 197-216, April.
  44. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Forecasting the end of the global recession: did we miss the early signs?," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Apr.
  46. Fernandez, Adriana Z. & Koenig, Evan F. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2010. "Can alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 733-757, November.
  47. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  48. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  49. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  50. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
  51. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  52. Kirstin Hubrich & Kenneth D. West, 2008. "Forecast Evaluation of Small Nested Model Sets," NBER Working Papers 14601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  54. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "Real time estimates of the euro area output gap: reliability and forecasting performance," Working Paper Series 1157, European Central Bank.
  55. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  56. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica C. Warnock, 2005. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp103, IIIS.
  57. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
  58. Hilde Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Jore, 2008. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 413-436, November.
  59. Pierre Siklos, 2006. "What Can We Learn from Comprehensive Data Revisions for Forecasting Inflation: Some US Evidence," Working Papers eg0049, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  60. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
  61. L Christopher Plantier & Ozer Karagedikli, 2005. "Do so-called multivariate filters have better revision properties? An empirical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 250, Society for Computational Economics.
  62. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2015. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 15-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  64. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
  65. Hatipoglu, Ozan & Alper, C. Emre, 2007. "Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 7107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008.
  66. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Simon van Norden, 2002. "La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada," Working Papers 02-10, Bank of Canada.
  67. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  68. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  69. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  70. Frédérick Demers, 2003. "The Canadian Phillips Curve and Regime Shifting," Working Papers 03-32, Bank of Canada.
  71. Robert L. Hetzel, 2005. "What difference would inflation make?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 45-72.
  72. Mohamed A. Osman & Rosmy Jean Louis & Faruk Balli, 2009. "Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 118-135.
  73. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  74. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2013. "Modelling italian potential output and the output gap," Working Papers 7, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
  76. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  77. Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Torres, Alberto, 2008. "Inflation dynamics in Mexico: A characterization using the New Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 274-289, December.
  78. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance," ETLA Reports 37, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  79. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Paper 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
  80. Stefano Scalone, 2014. "Embedding Liquidity Information in Estimating Potential Output," Working Papers 20/2014, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  81. Michael Graff, 2004. "Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  82. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  83. Adriana Z. Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
  84. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Juan Paez-Farrell, 2014. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Small Open Economies: a Quantile Regression Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(2), pages 237-256, 03.
  85. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2011. "Cost-based Phillips Curve forecasts of inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 553-567.
  86. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Øyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Røisland, Øistein, 2004. "Real-time Data for Norway: Challenges for Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  87. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395.
  88. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  89. Manuel Ramos Francia & Alberto Torres García, 2006. "Inflation Dynamics in Mexico: A Characterization Using the New Phillips Curve," Working Papers 2006-15, Banco de México.
  90. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon, 2009. "Estimating U.S. output growth with vintage data in a state-space framework," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 349-370.
  91. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2010. "The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 7763, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  92. Musso, Alberto & Stracca, Livio & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 0811, European Central Bank.
  93. Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
  94. João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
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