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The changing nature of the U.S. economic influence in the World

  • Fernández, Adriana Z.
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex

We argue that the U.S.-led global recession revealed a change in the nature of the U.S. economic influence over the world, evidenced by the unusual delay between the U.S. downturn and its full manifestation in other economies. To validate our argument we conduct a real-time analysis of the evolution of the U.S. business cycles' influence over other countries' business cycles from 1960 to 2007. Our findings suggest that since the early 1980s, cyclical movements in the U.S. economy affect other economies with a lag, rather than contemporaneously. There seems to be an increasing delay between a U.S. downturn and its full manifestation in other economies, suggesting that the U.S. economic influence is still strong but more delayed than before.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4YF5R22-2/2/2e8349d973cccd56e69ae240ce264163
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 196-209

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:2:p:196-209
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 583-601, June.
  2. Mark W. Watson, 2007. "How accurate are real-time estimates of output trends and gaps?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 143-161.
  3. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, October.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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