Reverse Dutch Disease with Trade Costs: Prospects for Agriculture in Africa's Oil-Rich Economies

Reduced oil revenues since 2014 are stimulating tradable sectors in oil-exporting countries. I use an open economy model with internal and external trade costs to investigate the prospects for reverse Dutch disease in African countries with a comparative advantage in agriculture. While falling resource revenues lead factors of production to shift into agriculture, remote farmers can lose when trade costs make agricultural goods behave like non-tradables. Household survey data from Nigeria show a significant agricultural supply response that is correlated with exposure to international markets. Lowering trade costs and boosting agricultural productivity can help offset the lost income from oil.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)