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Ignacio Esponda

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Abel, Martin & Robbett, Andrea & Stone, Daniel F., 2024. "Partisan Discrimination in Hiring," IZA Discussion Papers 17540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kevin He & Ran Shorrer & Mengjia Xia, 2025. "Human Misperception of Generative-AI Alignment: A Laboratory Experiment," Papers 2502.14708, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    3. Ilke Aydogan & Aurélien Baillon & Emmanuel Kemel & Chen Li, 2025. "How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 329-365, January.

  2. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory#," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt32j4d5z2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Evan M. Calford & Anujit Charkraborty, 2022. "The Value of and Demand for Diverse News Sources," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2022-688, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Mingshi Chen & Tracy Xiao Liu & You Shan & Shu Wang & Songfa Zhong & Yanju Zhou, 2025. "How General Are Measures of Choice Consistency? Evidence from Experimental and Scanner Data," Papers 2505.05275, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    4. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    5. Roy Chen & Peter Katuščák & Thomas Kittsteiner & Katharina Kütter, 2024. "Does disappointment aversion explain non-truthful reporting in strategy-proof mechanisms?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1184-1210, November.

  3. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Jehiel, Philippe & Mohlin, Erik, 2021. "Cycling and Categorical Learning in Decentralized Adverse Selection Economies," Working Papers 2021:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    2. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2021. "Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications:Theory and Applications," PIER Working Paper Archive 21-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    4. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 16788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Paul Heidhues & Botond Kőszegi & Philipp Strack, 2024. "Misinterpreting Yourself," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 317, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    7. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Misspecified Bayesian Learning by Strategic Players: First-Order Misspecification and Higher-Order Misspecification," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Ba, Cuimin & Gindin, Alice, 2023. "A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 315-338.
    10. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2022.
    11. Drew Fudenberg & Ying Gao & Harry Pei, 2020. "A Reputation for Honesty," Papers 2011.07159, arXiv.org.
    12. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2025. "Bayesian Learning When Players Are Misspecified about Others," ISER Discussion Paper 1284, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    13. Sebastian Bervoets & Mathieu Faure & Ludovic Renou, 2025. "Non-Bayesian Learning in Misspecified Models," Papers 2503.18024, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    14. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2025. "Berk-Nash Rationalizability," Papers 2505.20708, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    16. Yingkai Li & Argyris Oikonomou, 2024. "Dynamics and Contracts for an Agent with Misspecified Beliefs," Papers 2405.20423, arXiv.org.
    17. Luca Braghieri, 2023. "Biased Decoding and the Foundations of Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series 10432, CESifo.
    18. Paul Heidhues & Botond Koszegi & Philipp Strack, 2023. "Misinterpreting Yourself," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2378, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    19. Aniruddha Ghosh, 2024. "Robust Comparative Statics with Misspecified Bayesian Learning," Papers 2407.17037, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    20. Junnan He & Lin Hu & Matthew Kovach & Anqi Li, 2023. "Learning Source Biases: Multisource Misspecifications and Their Impact on Predictions," Papers 2309.08740, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    21. In-Koo Cho & Jonathan Libgober, 2022. "Learning Underspecified Models," Papers 2207.10140, arXiv.org.
    22. Philippe Jehiel & Erik Mohlin, 2023. "Categorization in Games: A Bias-Variance Perspective," Working Papers halshs-04154272, HAL.
    23. Cuimin Ba, 2021. "Robust Misspecified Models and Paradigm Shifts," Papers 2106.12727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    24. Drew Fudenberg & Giacomo Lanzani & Philipp Strack, 2021. "Limit Points of Endogenous Misspecified Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1065-1098, May.
    25. Xinyu Dai, 2025. "Dynamic Decision-Making under Model Misspecification," Papers 2505.14913, arXiv.org.
    26. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Welfare Comparisons for Biased Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 16833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Stability and Robustness in Misspecified Learning Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    28. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Multi-Player Bayesian Learning with Misspecified Models," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    29. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2021. "Learning With Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 3025-3077, November.
    30. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.

  4. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2016. "The Industry Supply Function and the Long-Run Competitive Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Firms," Papers 1612.09549, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Enrico De Monte, 2020. "Entry, Exit and Productivity: Evidence from French Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers of BETA 2020-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. De Monte Enrico, 2024. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression with Two-Way Fixed Effects," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 49-66, January.

  5. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2015. "Equilibrium in Misspecified Markov Decision Processes," Papers 1502.06901, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.

    Cited by:

    1. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    3. Robert M. Anderson & Haosui Duanmu & Aniruddha Ghosh & M. Ali Khan, 2022. "On Existence of Berk-Nash Equilibria in Misspecified Markov Decision Processes with Infinite Spaces," Papers 2206.08437, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    5. Fudenberg, Drew & Romanyuk, Gleb & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Active learning with a misspecified prior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.

  6. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Berk-Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents with Misspecified Models," Papers 1411.1152, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Alex Rees-Jones & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2016. "Measuring “Schmeduling”," NBER Working Papers 22884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2021. "Using Models to Persuade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 276-323, January.
    3. Schipper, Burkhard C, 2018. "Discovery and Equilibrium in Games with Unawareness," MPRA Paper 86300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," CEPR Discussion Papers 16789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. V. Bhaskar & Caroline Thomas, 2019. "The Culture of Overconfidence," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 95-110, June.
    6. Jeanne Hagenbach & Frédéric Koessler, 2019. "Partial Language Competence," SciencePo Working papers Main halshs-01988076, HAL.
    7. Ron Berman & Yuval Heller, 2020. "Naive analytics equilibrium," Papers 2010.15810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    8. Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium and Related Concepts:Theory, Applications, and Beyond," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735680, HAL.
    9. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2017. "Bounded Rationality And Learning: A Framwork and A Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2017.
    11. Ilke Aydogan & Loïc Berger & Valentina Bosetti & Ning Liu, 2023. "Three Layers of Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-04370968, HAL.
    12. Philippe Jehiel & Larry Samuelson, 2023. "The analogical foundations of cooperation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04331552, HAL.
    13. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    14. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2018. "A Model of Competing Narratives," CEPR Discussion Papers 13319, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Hestermann, Nina & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2018. "It\'s not my Fault! Self-Confidence and Experimentation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 124, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    16. Philippe Jehiel & Konrad Mierendorff, 2022. "Auction Design with Data-Driven Misspecifications," Working Papers halshs-03735747, HAL.
    17. Alfonso Maselli, 2025. "Misspecification Averse Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Prat, Andrea & Montiel Olea , José Luis & Ortoleva, Pietro & Pai, Mallesh, 2019. "Competing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14066, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Jose Luis Montiel Olea & Pietro Ortoleva & Mallesh M Pai & Andrea Prat, 2019. "Competing Models," Papers 1907.03809, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    19. Philippe Choné & Laurent Linnemer, 2022. "A Class of Behavioral Models for the Profit-Maximizing Firm," CESifo Working Paper Series 9718, CESifo.
    20. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    21. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2017. "Gresham's Law of Model Averaging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3589-3616, November.
    22. Gamp, Tobias & Krähmer, Daniel, 2022. "Biased Beliefs in Search Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 365, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    23. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
    24. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    25. Karol Mazur, 2021. "A note on pessimism in education and its economic consequences," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(4), pages 773-783, December.
    26. Kubler, Felix & Scheidegger, Simon, 2023. "Uniformly self-justified equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    27. Pooya Molavi & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi & Andrea Vedolin, 2021. "Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 28408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Liqui Lung, C. W., 2022. "Optimal Self-Screening and the Persistence of Identity-Driven Choices," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2232, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    29. Marek Weretka & Daniel Quint, 2022. "Slope-takers in anonymous markets," GRAPE Working Papers 64, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    30. Else Gry Bro Christensen & Takeshi Murooka, 2020. "Procrastination and Learning about Self-Control," OSIPP Discussion Paper 20E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    31. Ran Spiegler, 2020. "Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systematically Fooled?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 583-617.
    32. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2018. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2128R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2022.
    33. Giampaolo Bonomi, 2023. "The Disagreement Dividend," Papers 2308.06607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    34. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2019. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2160R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2020.
    35. Duarte Gonc{c}alves, 2022. "Sequential Sampling Equilibrium," Papers 2212.07725, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    36. Fudenberg, Drew & He, Kevin, 2021. "Player-compatible learning and player-compatible equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    37. Vives, Xavier & Yang, Liyan & Mondria, Jordi, 2017. "Costly Interpretation of Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 12360, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2021. "Learning with Heterogeneous Misspecfied Models: Characterization and Robustness," PIER Working Paper Archive 21-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    39. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    40. Ran Spiegler, 2017. "“Data Monkeys”: A Procedural Model of Extrapolation from Partial Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1818-1841.
    41. Geoffroy de Clippel & Kareen Rozen, 2018. "Consumer Theory with Misperceived Tastes," Working Papers 2018-10, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    42. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2024. "News Media as Suppliers of Narratives (and Information)," Papers 2403.09155, arXiv.org.
    43. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2017. "Payoff Information and Learning in Signaling Games," Papers 1709.01024, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    45. Jeanne Hagenbach & Frédéric Koessler, 2017. "The Streisand effect: Signaling and partial sophistication," Post-Print hal-01629301, HAL.
    46. Isaac Loh & Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Dimensionality and Disagreement: Asymptotic Belief Divergence in Response to Common Information," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-18, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jan 2019.
    47. Florian Mudekereza, 2025. "Correlation Neglect in Games," Papers 2501.13019, arXiv.org.
    48. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    49. Spiegler, Ran, 2018. "News and Archival Information in Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 12805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    50. Ba, Cuimin & Gindin, Alice, 2023. "A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 315-338.
    51. Glazer, Jacob & Rubinstein, Ariel, 2024. "Making predictions based on data: Holistic and atomistic procedures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    52. Olivier Compte, 2023. "Belief formation and the persistence of biased beliefs," Papers 2310.08466, arXiv.org.
    53. Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Making Decisions under Model Misspecification," Working Papers 668, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    54. Yingkai Li & Harry Pei, 2020. "Misspecified Beliefs about Time Lags," Papers 2012.07238, arXiv.org.
    55. Phuong Ho, 2023. "Nonlinear pricing, biased consumers, and regulatory policy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 149-164, March.
    56. Drew Fudenberg & Ying Gao & Harry Pei, 2020. "A Reputation for Honesty," Papers 2011.07159, arXiv.org.
    57. Jonathan Gehle & Ferdinand A. von Siemens & Ferdinand von Siemens, 2024. "Social Preferences, Trust, and Communication when the Truth Hurts," CESifo Working Paper Series 11181, CESifo.
    58. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2017. "Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 279-294.
    59. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    60. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & David Schmeidler, 2020. "Equilibria of nonatomic anonymous games," Papers 2005.01839, arXiv.org.
    61. Andrew Ellis & Heidi Christina Thysen, 2021. "Subjective Causality in Choice," Papers 2106.05957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    62. Larry Samuelson & Jakub Steiner, 2024. "Constrained data-fitters," ECON - Working Papers 460, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    63. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2022. "The possibility of Bayesian learning in repeated games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 142-152.
    64. Diego Alejandro Murillo Taborda, 2021. "Nonlinear Pricing with Misspecified and Arbitrary Perception of the Marginal Price," Papers 2104.10281, arXiv.org.
    65. Spiegler, Ran, 2022. "On the behavioral consequences of reverse causality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    66. Geoffroy de Clippel & Kareen Rozen, 2020. "Relaxed Optimization: e-Rationalizability and the FOC-Departure Index in Consumer Theory," Working Papers 2020-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    67. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler & Yair Weiss, 2019. "Cheating with (Recursive) Models," Papers 1911.01251, arXiv.org.
    68. Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2018. "Learning and Type Compatibility in Signaling Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1215-1255, July.
    69. Ran Spiegler, 2023. "Behavioral Causal Inference," Papers 2305.18916, arXiv.org.
    70. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    71. Tanjim Hossain & Ryo Okui, 2019. "Belief Formation Under Signal Correlation," Working Paper Series no115, Institute of Economic Research, Seoul National University.
    72. Yingkai Li & Argyris Oikonomou, 2024. "Dynamics and Contracts for an Agent with Misspecified Beliefs," Papers 2405.20423, arXiv.org.
    73. Steiner, Jakub & Netzer, Nick & Robson, Arthur & Kocourek, Pavel, 2021. "Endogenous Risk Attitudes," CEPR Discussion Papers 16190, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    74. Paul Heidhues & Botond Koszegi & Philipp Strack, 2023. "Misinterpreting Yourself," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2378, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    75. Fudenberg, Drew & Romanyuk, Gleb & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Active learning with a misspecified prior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    76. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    77. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2017. "Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 54-75, May.
    78. Philippe Jehiel & Erik Mohlin, 2023. "Categorization in Games: A Bias-Variance Perspective," Working Papers halshs-04154272, HAL.
    79. Stone, Daniel, 2018. "Just a big misunderstanding? Bias and Bayesian affective polarization," SocArXiv 58sru, Center for Open Science.
    80. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2023. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 781-814.
    81. Simon Gleyze & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Expectation Formation, Local Sampling and Belief Traps: A new Perspective on Education Choices," Working Papers halshs-04154324, HAL.
    82. Liqui Lung, C. W., 2022. "Optimal Self-Screening and the Persistence of Identity-Driven Choices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2274, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    83. Battigalli, P. & Francetich, A. & Lanzani, G. & Marinacci, M., 2019. "Learning and self-confirming long-run biases," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 740-785.
    84. Spiegler, Ran, 2021. "Modeling players with random “data access”," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    85. Ellis, Andrew & Spiegler, Ran, 2024. "Identifying Assumptions and Research Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 19112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    86. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo, 2023. "Which misspecifications persist?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
    87. Olivier Compte, 2023. "Learned Collusion," Papers 2304.12647, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.

Articles

  1. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Abel, Martin & Robbett, Andrea & Stone, Daniel F., 2024. "Partisan Discrimination in Hiring," IZA Discussion Papers 17540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kevin He & Ran Shorrer & Mengjia Xia, 2025. "Human Misperception of Generative-AI Alignment: A Laboratory Experiment," Papers 2502.14708, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    3. Ilke Aydogan & Aurélien Baillon & Emmanuel Kemel & Chen Li, 2025. "How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 329-365, January.

  2. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa, 2024. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2806-2831.

    Cited by:

    1. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Evan M. Calford & Anujit Charkraborty, 2022. "The Value of and Demand for Diverse News Sources," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2022-688, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    3. Mingshi Chen & Tracy Xiao Liu & You Shan & Shu Wang & Songfa Zhong & Yanju Zhou, 2025. "How General Are Measures of Choice Consistency? Evidence from Experimental and Scanner Data," Papers 2505.05275, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    4. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    5. Roy Chen & Peter Katuščák & Thomas Kittsteiner & Katharina Kütter, 2024. "Does disappointment aversion explain non-truthful reporting in strategy-proof mechanisms?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1184-1210, November.

  3. Ignacio Esponda & Ryan Oprea & Sevgi Yuksel, 2023. "Seeing What is Representative," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2607-2657.

    Cited by:

    1. Barron, Kai & Ditlmann, Ruth & Gehrig, Stefan & Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian, 2022. "Explicit and Implicit Belief-Based Gender Discrimination: A Hiring Experiment," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 325, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. Burn, Hester & Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta, 2024. "Stereotyping and ethnicity gaps in teacher assigned grades," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Marta Serra-Garcia, 2025. "The Attention–Information Tradeoff," CESifo Working Paper Series 11885, CESifo.

  4. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian, 2021. "Equilibrium in misspecified Markov decision processes," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian, 2019. "The industry supply function and the long-run competitive equilibrium with heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2019. "Retrospective Voting And Party Polarization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 157-186, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Galanis, Giorgos, 2020. "Convergence and divergence in dynamic voting with inequality," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 61, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    4. Prummer, Anja, 2020. "Micro-targeting and polarization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

  8. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa, 2018. "Endogenous sample selection: A laboratory study," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 183-216, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Arianna Degan & Ming Li & Huan Xie, 2023. "An experimental investigation of persuasion through selective disclosure of evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1490-1516, November.
    2. Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium and Related Concepts:Theory, Applications, and Beyond," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735680, HAL.
    3. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," PSE Working Papers halshs-04154345, HAL.
    6. Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309r, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, revised 2019.
    7. Cordes, Simon & Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Werner, Tobias, 2024. "What drives demand for loot boxes? An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    8. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2021. "An experiment on deception, reputation and trust," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 821-853, September.
    9. Hajdu, Gergely & Krusper, Balázs, 2023. "Choice-induced Sticky Learning," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 349, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. López-Pérez, Raúl & Pintér, Ágnes & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2022. "Some conditions (not) affecting selection neglect: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 140-157.
    11. Philippe Jehiel & Juni Singh, 2021. "Multi-state choices with aggregate feedback on unfamiliar alternatives," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672197, HAL.
    12. Guillaume HOLLARD & Fabien PEREZ, 2020. "Self-Selection Filters Irrationality in One-shot Games," Working Papers 2020-10, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    13. Niederle, Muriel & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Cognitive Limitations: Failures of Contingent Thinking," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5q14p1np, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    14. Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "The redistributive consequences of segregation and misperceptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    16. Bolte, Lukas & Fan, Tony Q., 2024. "Motivated mislearning: The case of correlation neglect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 647-663.
    17. Backhaus, Teresa & Schäper, Clara & Schrenker, Annekatrin, 2023. "Causal misperceptions of the part-time pay gap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Duffy, John & Hopkins, Ed & Kornienko, Tatiana, 2021. "Lone wolf or herd animal? Information choice and learning from others," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

  9. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2017. "Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 54-75, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    2. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    3. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," PSE Working Papers halshs-04154345, HAL.
    4. Philippe Jehiel, 2018. "Investment Strategy and Selection Bias: An Equilibrium Perspective on Overoptimism," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01884380, HAL.
    5. Matthias Lang & Simeon Schudy, 2023. "(Dis)honesty and the Value of Transparency for Campaign Promises," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 409, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Chen, Wanyi, 2021. "Dynamic survival bias in optimal stopping problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Kfir Eliaz & Simone Galperti & Ran Spiegler, 2022. "False Narratives and Political Mobilization," Papers 2206.12621, arXiv.org.
    8. Shuyao Ke & Liangjun Su & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Unified Factor Model Estimation and Inference under Short and Long Memory," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2351, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

  10. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2016. "Berk–Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents With Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1093-1130, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. ,, 2013. "Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.

    Cited by:

    1. Schipper, Burkhard C, 2018. "Discovery and Equilibrium in Games with Unawareness," MPRA Paper 86300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2015. "Rationalizability and Efficiency in an Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00975002, HAL.
    3. Ron Berman & Yuval Heller, 2020. "Naive analytics equilibrium," Papers 2010.15810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    4. Yuval Heller & Eyal Winter, 2020. "Biased-Belief Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-40, May.
    5. Giuseppe Attanasi & Pierpaolo Battigalli & Elena Manzoni, 2016. "Incomplete-Information Models of Guilt Aversion in the Trust Game," Post-Print hal-01723199, HAL.
    6. Fudenberg, Drew & Kamada, Yuichiro, 2015. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium," Scholarly Articles 27303656, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. P Battigalli & S Cerreia-Vioglio & F Maccheroni & M Marinacci, 2012. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000376, David K. Levine.
    8. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2019. "Observing Actions in Bayesian Games," Papers 1904.10744, arXiv.org.
    9. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2011. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Uncertainty," Working Papers 428, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    10. Daniel Clark & Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2022. "Observability, Dominance, and Induction in Learning Models," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    11. Battigalli, P. & Catonini, E. & Lanzani, G. & Marinacci, M., 2019. "Ambiguity attitudes and self-confirming equilibrium in sequential games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 1-29.
    12. Giacomo Bonanno, 2021. "Rational play in games: A behavioral approach," Working Papers 344, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. Fudenberg, Drew & Kamada, Yuichiro, 2018. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium with heterogeneous beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 364-381.
    14. Annie Liang, 2019. "Games of Incomplete Information Played By Statisticians," Papers 1910.07018, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    15. Annie Liang, 2016. "Games of Incomplete Information Played by Statisticians," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jan 2016.
    16. Jernej Copic, 2015. "Disagreement, information and welfare," 2015 Meeting Papers 1344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2021. "Observing Actions in Global Games," Papers 2111.10554, arXiv.org.
    18. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2022. "Observing actions in global games," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Norimasa Kobayashi & Yasuo Sasaki, 2024. "Rationalizable self-confirming equilibrium in static games with unawareness," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 53(3), pages 765-790, September.
    20. Xiao Luo & Xuewen Qian & Yang Sun, 2021. "The algebraic geometry of perfect and sequential equilibrium: an extension," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(2), pages 579-601, March.

  12. Ignacio Esponda, 2008. "Information feedback in first price auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(2), pages 491-508, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Vitali Gretschko & Helene Mass, 2023. "Worst-Case Equilibria in First-Price Auctions," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_434, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. ,, 2011. "Manipulative auction design," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), May.
    3. Philippe Jehiel & Laurent Lamy, 2015. "On absolute auctions and secret reserve prices," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01155875, HAL.
    4. Koessler, Frederic & Pahlke, Marieke, 2025. "Feedback design in games with ambiguity-averse players," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Christoph March, 2011. "Adaptive social learning," PSE Working Papers halshs-00572528, HAL.
    6. Ariel Pakes, 2008. "Theory and Empirical Work on Imperfectly Competitive Markets," NBER Working Papers 14117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Azacis, Helmuts, 2017. "Information Disclosure by a Seller in Sequential First-Price Auctions," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2017/2, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    8. Iftekhar, Md Sayed & Tisdell, John G., 2015. "Bidding and performance in multiple unit combinatorial fishery quota auctions: Role of information feedbacks," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 233-243.
    9. Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo & Manuel Castro, 2011. "The nature of information and its effect on bidding behavior: laboratory evidence in a common value auction," Working Paper 8510, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    10. Zacharias Maniadis, 2008. "Essays in Aggregate Information, The Media and Special Interests," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002258, David K. Levine.
    11. Frédéric Koessler & Marieke Pahlke, 2023. "Feedback Design in Strategic-Form Games with Ambiguity Averse Players," Working Papers halshs-04039083, HAL.
    12. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo, 2023. "Which misspecifications persist?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
    13. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    14. Zacharias Maniadis, 2014. "Selective revelation of public information and self-confirming equilibrium," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 43(4), pages 991-1008, November.

  13. Ignacio Esponda, 2008. "Behavioral Equilibrium in Economies with Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1269-1291, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1243-1290.
    2. Evan Piermont, 2021. "Hypothetical Expected Utility," Papers 2106.15979, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    3. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," CEPR Discussion Papers 16789, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Clemens Buchen & Alberto Palermo, 2022. "Adverse Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Evolutionary Learning," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 343-362, June.
    5. Jehiel, Philippe, 2015. "Investment strategy and selection bias: An equilibrium perspective on overconfidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2017. "Framing Game Theory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1072, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium and Related Concepts:Theory, Applications, and Beyond," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735680, HAL.
    8. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Palacios-Huerta, Ignacio & Parkes, David C. & Steinberg, Richard, 2024. "Combinatorial auctions in practice," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124108, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Jehiel, Philippe & Mohlin, Erik, 2021. "Cycling and Categorical Learning in Decentralized Adverse Selection Economies," Working Papers 2021:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    11. Philippe Jehiel & Larry Samuelson, 2023. "The analogical foundations of cooperation," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-04331552, HAL.
    12. Jeanne Hagenbach & Frédéric Koessler, 2017. "Simple versus rich language in disclosure games," Post-Print hal-01629311, HAL.
    13. Tristan Gagnon-Bartsch & Marco Pagnozzi & Antonio Rosato, 2021. "Projection of Private Values in Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3256-3298, October.
    14. Shengwu Li, 2017. "Obviously Strategy-Proof Mechanisms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3257-3287, November.
    15. Philippe Jehiel & Konrad Mierendorff, 2022. "Auction Design with Data-Driven Misspecifications," Working Papers halshs-03735747, HAL.
    16. Andreas Haupt & Zoe Hitzig, 2023. "Opaque Contracts," Papers 2301.13404, arXiv.org.
    17. Bayona, Anna & Manzano, Carolina, 2024. "Competition in schedules with cursed traders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    18. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," PSE Working Papers halshs-04154345, HAL.
    19. P Battigalli & S Cerreia-Vioglio & F Maccheroni & M Marinacci, 2012. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000376, David K. Levine.
    20. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2018. "The Distribution of Information and the Price Efficiency of Markets," Working Papers 18-09, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    21. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
    22. Alejandro Martínez-Marquina & Muriel Niederle & Emanuel Vespa, 2017. "Probabilistic States versus Multiple Certainties: The Obstacle of Uncertainty in Contingent Reasoning," NBER Working Papers 24030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2025. "Why do migrants stay unexpectedly? Misperceptions and implications for integration," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    24. Yair Antler ad Ran Spiegler, 2024. "Competitive Markets with Imperfectly Discerning Consumers," Papers 2409.14885, arXiv.org.
    25. Ran Spiegler, 2019. "Behavioral Economics and the Atheoretical Style," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 173-194, May.
    26. S. Nageeb Ali, 2009. "Learning Self-Control," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000384, David K. Levine.
    27. Avi Goldfarb & Mo Xiao, 2008. "Who thinks about the competition? Managerial ability and strategic entry in US local telephone markets," Working Papers 08-21, NET Institute, revised Oct 2008.
    28. Susan Athey, 2002. "Monotone Comparative Statics under Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 187-223.
    29. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2004. "Towards a Theory of Deception," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000247, UCLA Department of Economics.
    30. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2018. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2128R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2022.
    31. J. Patrick Gunning, 2010. "Incentive Divergence and the Global Financial Crisis," Chapters, in: Steven Kates (ed.), Macroeconomic Theory and its Failings, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Miettinen, Topi, 2008. "Analogy-based Expectations and the Partially Cursed Equilibrium," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 708, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 12 Dec 2008.
    33. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2019. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2160R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2020.
    34. Cesar Martinelli, 2011. "Ignorance and Naivete in Large Elections," Working Papers 1107, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    35. Amrish Patel & Edward Cartwright, 2009. "Social Norms and Naive Beliefs," Studies in Economics 0906, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    36. Christoph March, 2011. "Adaptive social learning," PSE Working Papers halshs-00572528, HAL.
    37. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Muehlegger, Erich J., 2013. "On the use of heuristics to approximate competitors’ private information," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 10-23.
    38. Philippe Jehiel, 2018. "Investment Strategy and Selection Bias: An Equilibrium Perspective on Overoptimism," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01884380, HAL.
    39. Philippe Jehiel & Frederic Koessler, 2005. "Revisiting Games of Incomplete Information with Analogy-Based Expectations," THEMA Working Papers 2005-04, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    40. Schüssler, Katharina, 2018. "The Influence of Overconfidence and Competition Neglect On Entry Into Competition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 87, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    41. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2021. "An experiment on deception, reputation and trust," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 821-853, September.
    42. Ran Spiegler, 2017. "“Data Monkeys”: A Procedural Model of Extrapolation from Partial Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1818-1841.
    43. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    44. Jeanne Hagenbach & Frédéric Koessler, 2017. "The Streisand effect: Signaling and partial sophistication," Post-Print hal-01629301, HAL.
    45. Frick, Mira & , & Ishii, Yuhta, 2021. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 16788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Miettinen, Topi, 2009. "Paying Attention to Payoffs in Analogy-Based Learning," SITE Working Paper Series 7, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    47. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2011. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Uncertainty," Working Papers 428, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    48. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    49. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Rosato, Antonio, 2022. "Quality is in the eye of the beholder: taste projection in markets with observational learning," MPRA Paper 115426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    51. Ignacio Esponda Jr. & Emanuel Vespa Jr., 2014. "Hypothetical Thinking and Information Extraction in the Laboratory," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 180-202, November.
    52. Madarász, Kristóf, 2015. "Projection Equilibrium: Definition and Applications to Social Investment and Persuasion," CEPR Discussion Papers 10636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    53. Koch, Christian & Penczynski, Stefan P., 2018. "The winner's curse: Conditional reasoning and belief formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 57-102.
    54. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2022.
    55. Philippe Jehiel & Juni Singh, 2021. "Multi-state choices with aggregate feedback on unfamiliar alternatives," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03672197, HAL.
    56. Gong, Qingbin & Diao, Xundi, 2023. "The impacts of investor network and herd behavior on market stability: Social learning, network structure, and heterogeneity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1388-1398.
    57. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2016. "Berk–Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents With Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1093-1130, May.
    58. Luca Macedoni, 2022. "Asymmetric information, quality, and regulations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1180-1198, September.
    59. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," NBER Working Papers 16911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. Edward Cartwright & Amrish Patel, 2008. "Public Goods, Social Norms and Naive Beliefs," Studies in Economics 0807, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    61. Vikander Nick, 2019. "Sellouts, Beliefs, and Bandwagon Behavior," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-21, January.
    62. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2010. "A Theory of Deception," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-00701286, HAL.
    63. Niederle, Muriel & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Cognitive Limitations: Failures of Contingent Thinking," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5q14p1np, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    64. Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D., 2022. "Adverse selection and contingent reasoning in preadolescents and teenagers," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 331-351.
    65. Andrew Ellis & Heidi Christina Thysen, 2021. "Subjective Causality in Choice," Papers 2106.05957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    66. Olivier Bochet & Jacopo Magnani, 2021. "Limited Strategic Thinking and the Cursed Match," Working Papers 20210071, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Sep 2021.
    67. Drew Fudenberg, 2006. "Advancing Beyond Advances in Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 694-711, September.
    68. Alberto Palermo & Clemens Buchen, 2021. "Adverse Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Evolutionary Learning," IAAEU Discussion Papers 202103, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    69. Michael Grubb, 2015. "Behavioral Consumers in Industrial Organization: An Overview," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 47(3), pages 247-258, November.
    70. Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2018. "Learning and Type Compatibility in Signaling Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(4), pages 1215-1255, July.
    71. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian, 2021. "Equilibrium in misspecified Markov decision processes," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    72. Yuval Salant & Josh Cherry, 2020. "Statistical Inference in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1725-1752, July.
    73. Martin, Daniel, 2017. "Strategic pricing with rational inattention to quality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 131-145.
    74. Chen, Wanyi, 2021. "Dynamic survival bias in optimal stopping problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    75. Alistair J. Wilson & Emanuel Vespa, 2012. "Communication With Multiple Senders and Multiple Dimensions: An Experiment," Working Paper 384, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Mar 2012.
    76. Yutaka Kayaba & Jun Maekawa & Hitoshi Matsushima, 2023. "The Effect of Framing in Sealed-Bid Auctions: Theory and Experiments," CARF F-Series CARF-F-567, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
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