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Ignacio Esponda

Citations

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Working papers

  1. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Little, Andrew T. & Moore, Don A & Augenblick, Ned & Backus, Matthew, 2025. "Assumptions, Disagreement, and Overprecision: Theory and Evidence," OSF Preprints mnv4k_v1, Center for Open Science.
    2. Luca Corazzini & Marco Diamante & Valeria Maggian, 2026. "Are hopeful narratives more convincing? A laboratory experiment," Working Papers 2026: 02, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Sankar, Anirudh & Dulin, Robert & Davies, Benjamin & Nourani, Vesall & Rudder, Jess & Salomon, Abraham & Taulya, Godfrey, 2026. "How Mechanistic Explanations Reshape Learning and Behavior: Evidence from a Fertilizer Choice Experiment in Eastern Uganda," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404655, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Felipe A. Araujo & Christopher F. Chabris & Michelle N. Meyer, 2025. "The Effect of On-the-Job Experience on Base-Rate Neglect: Evidence from Medical Professionals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8807-8822, October.
    5. Kevin He & Ran Shorrer & Mengjia Xia, 2025. "Human Misperception of Generative-AI Alignment: A Laboratory Experiment," Papers 2502.14708, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    6. Matthew Kovach & Daniel Martin & Gerelt Tserenjigmid, 2026. "Learning from an Unknown DGP: Experimental Evidence on Belief Updating with AI Recommendations," Papers 2607.10460, arXiv.org.
    7. Ilke Aydogan & Aurélien Baillon & Emmanuel Kemel & Chen Li, 2025. "How much do we learn? Measuring symmetric and asymmetric deviations from Bayesian updating through choices," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 329-365, January.
    8. Abel, Martin & Robbett, Andrea & Stone, Daniel F., 2024. "Partisan Discrimination in Hiring," IZA Discussion Papers 17540, IZA Network @ LISER.

  2. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory#," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt32j4d5z2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.

    Cited by:

    1. Calford, Evan M. & Chakraborty, Anujit, 2025. "The value of and demand for diverse news sources," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 24-41.
    2. Roy Chen & Peter Katuščák & Thomas Kittsteiner & Katharina Kütter, 2024. "Does disappointment aversion explain non-truthful reporting in strategy-proof mechanisms?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1184-1210, November.
    3. Peter Katuščák & Thomas Kittsteiner, 2025. "Strategy-Proofness Made Simpler," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(9), pages 7560-7578, September.
    4. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    5. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikitas Pittis & Panagiotis Samartzis & Konstantinos Georgalos, 2025. "Comparative Ignorance as an Explanation of Ambiguity Aversion and Ellsberg Choices: A Survey with a New Proposal for Bayesian Training," DEOS Working Papers 2572, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    6. Mingshi Chen & Tracy Xiao Liu & You Shan & Shu Wang & Songfa Zhong & Yanju Zhou, 2025. "How General Are Measures of Choice Consistency? Evidence from Experimental and Scanner Data," Papers 2505.05275, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    7. Roel, Marcus & Chen, Zhuoqiong, 2026. "Strategy vs. direct-response method: evidence from a large online experiment on simple social dilemmas," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 153-185.

  3. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2026. "Learning and Equilibrium under Model Misspecification," Papers 2601.09891, arXiv.org.
    2. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2025. "Misspecified Learning and Evolutionary Stability," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    4. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Luca Braghieri, 2023. "Biased Decoding and the Foundations of Communication," CESifo Working Paper Series 10432, CESifo.
    6. Fudenberg, Drew & Gao, Ying & Pei, Harry, 2022. "A reputation for honesty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Malte Kornemann, 2026. "Robustly Non-Harmful Information for Biased Learners," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 411, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    8. Paul Heidhues & Botond Kőszegi & Philipp Strack, 2024. "Misinterpreting Yourself," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 317, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Paul Heidhues & Botond Koszegi & Philipp Strack, 2023. "Misinterpreting Yourself," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2378, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Multi-Player Bayesian Learning with Misspecified Models," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    11. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2021. "Learning With Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 3025-3077, November.
    12. Jehiel, Philippe & Mohlin, Erik, 2025. "Categorization in Games: A Bias-Variance Perspective," Working Papers 2025:7, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    13. Sebastian Bervoets & Mathieu Faure & Ludovic Renou, 2025. "Non-Bayesian Learning in Misspecied Models," AMSE Working Papers 2513, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2021.
    15. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2025. "Berk-Nash Rationalizability," Papers 2505.20708, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2026.
    16. Cuimin Ba, 2021. "Robust Misspecified Models and Paradigm Shifts," Papers 2106.12727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    17. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Jehiel, Philippe & Mohlin, Erik, 2021. "Cycling and Categorical Learning in Decentralized Adverse Selection Economies," Working Papers 2021:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    19. Xinyu Dai & Daniel Chen & Yian Qian, 2026. "Dynamic Decision-Making under Model Misspecification: A Stochastic Stability Approach," Papers 2602.17086, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
    20. Aniruddha Ghosh, 2024. "Robust Comparative Statics with Misspecified Bayesian Learning," Papers 2407.17037, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    21. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2025. "Bayesian Learning When Players Are Misspecified about Others," ISER Discussion Paper 1284, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    22. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2020. "Evolutionarily Stable (Mis)specifications: Theory and Applications," Papers 2012.15007, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    23. Drew Fudenberg & Giacomo Lanzani & Philipp Strack, 2021. "Limit Points of Endogenous Misspecified Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(3), pages 1065-1098, May.
    24. Junnan He & Lin Hu & Matthew Kovach & Anqi Li, 2023. "Misspecified Model Estimation and Its Impact on Predictions," Papers 2309.08740, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2026.
    25. Takeshi Murooka & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2021. "Misspecified Bayesian Learning by Strategic Players: First-Order Misspecification and Higher-Order Misspecification," OSIPP Discussion Paper 21E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    26. In-Koo Cho & Jonathan Libgober, 2022. "Learning Underspecified Models," Papers 2207.10140, arXiv.org.
    27. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2021. "Welfare Comparisons for Biased Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2274, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    28. Ba, Cuimin & Gindin, Alice, 2023. "A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 315-338.
    29. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    30. Francesco Bilotta & Luca Braghieri & Collin Raymond & Mark Whitmeyer, 2026. "Agreement and Diversity in Interpretation," Papers 2607.05558, arXiv.org.
    31. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2022.
    32. Xinyu Dai, 2025. "Dynamic Decision-Making under Model Misspecification," Papers 2505.14913, arXiv.org.
    33. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    34. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2020. "Stability and Robustness in Misspecified Learning Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2235, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    35. Filippo Massari & Jonathan Newton, 2026. "Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-26, June.
    36. Yingkai Li & Argyris Oikonomou, 2024. "Dynamics and Contracts for an Agent with Misspecified Beliefs," Papers 2405.20423, arXiv.org.
    37. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2023. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 781-814.
    38. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.

  4. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2016. "The Industry Supply Function and the Long-Run Competitive Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Firms," Papers 1612.09549, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Enrico De Monte, 2020. "Entry, Exit and Productivity: Evidence from French Manufacturing Firms," Working Papers of BETA 2020-07, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. De Monte Enrico, 2024. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression with Two-Way Fixed Effects," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 49-66, January.

  5. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2015. "Equilibrium in Misspecified Markov Decision Processes," Papers 1502.06901, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.

    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2026. "Learning and Equilibrium under Model Misspecification," Papers 2601.09891, arXiv.org.
    2. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent & John Stachurski, 2024. "Dynamic Programming: Finite States," Papers 2401.10473, arXiv.org.
    4. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    5. Anderson, Robert M. & Duanmu, Haosui & Ghosh, Aniruddha & Khan, M. Ali, 2024. "On existence of Berk-Nash equilibria in misspecified Markov decision processes with infinite spaces," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    6. Fudenberg, Drew & Romanyuk, Gleb & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Active learning with a misspecified prior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    7. Jessica B. Hoel & Hope Michelson & Ben Norton & Victor Manyong, 2024. "Misattribution prevents learning," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(5), pages 1571-1594, October.

  6. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Berk-Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents with Misspecified Models," Papers 1411.1152, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2026. "Learning and Equilibrium under Model Misspecification," Papers 2601.09891, arXiv.org.
    2. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2025. "Misspecified Learning and Evolutionary Stability," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-020, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 0. "News media as suppliers of narratives (and information)," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    4. Philippe Jehiel & Larry Samuelson, 2022. "The Analogical Foundations of Cooperation," Working Papers halshs-03754101, HAL.
    5. Yingkai Li & Aleksandrs Slivkins, 2022. "Exploration and Incentivizing Participation in Randomized Trials," Papers 2202.06191, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    6. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2024. "News Media as Suppliers of Narratives (and Information)," Papers 2403.09155, arXiv.org.
    7. Larry Samuelson & Jakub Steiner, 2024. "Robust latent data representations," ECON - Working Papers 460, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Jul 2025.
    8. Daria Fedyaeva & Georgy Lukyanov & Hannah Tolli'e, 2025. "Learning to Unlearn: Education as a Remedy for Misspecified Beliefs," Papers 2510.24735, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2026.
    9. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Alex Rees-Jones & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2016. "Measuring “Schmeduling”," NBER Working Papers 22884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2017. "Payoff Information and Learning in Signaling Games," Papers 1709.01024, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    12. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2022. "The possibility of Bayesian learning in repeated games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 142-152.
    13. Simon Scheidegger & Andreas Schaab, 2026. "Equilibrium World Models," Papers 2606.23463, arXiv.org.
    14. Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2025. "Higher-Order Beliefs and (Mis)learning from Prices," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Hagenbach, Jeanne & Koessler, Frédéric, 2019. "Partial Language Competence," CEPR Discussion Papers 13488, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    16. Yuhang Wu & Assaf Zeevi, 2026. "Should Demand Models Incorporate Competitor Prices? Oblivious Learning and Algorithmic Collusion," Papers 2606.05363, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    17. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2016. "Gresham’S Law Of Model Averaging," Discussion Papers dp16-06, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    18. Andrew Ellis & Ran Spiegler, 2024. "Identifying Assumptions and Research Dynamics," Papers 2402.18713, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2025.
    19. Schipper, Burkhard C, 2018. "Discovery and Equilibrium in Games with Unawareness," MPRA Paper 86300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    21. Fudenberg, Drew & Gao, Ying & Pei, Harry, 2022. "A reputation for honesty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    22. Diego Alejandro Murillo Taborda, 2021. "Nonlinear Pricing with Misspecified and Arbitrary Perception of the Marginal Price," Papers 2104.10281, arXiv.org.
    23. Malte Kornemann, 2026. "Robustly Non-Harmful Information for Biased Learners," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 411, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    24. Karol Mazur, 2021. "A note on pessimism in education and its economic consequences," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(4), pages 773-783, December.
    25. Vedolin, Andrea & Molavi, Pooya & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2021. "Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 15717, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    26. Ilke AYDOGAN & Loïc BERGER & Valentina BOSETTI & Ning LIU, 2022. "Three layers of uncertainty," Working Papers 2022-iRisk-01, IESEG School of Management.
    27. Nick Netzer & Arthur Robson & Jakub Steiner & Pavel Kocourek, 2022. "Endogenous Risk Attitudes," CESifo Working Paper Series 9547, CESifo.
    28. Joseph Y. Halpern & Evan Piermont & Marie-Louise Viero, 2026. "Unintended Consequences: Updating Causal Models," Papers 2603.09387, arXiv.org.
    29. Bhaskar, Venkataraman & Thomas, Caroline, 2018. "The culture of overconfidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12740, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    30. Paul Heidhues & Botond Koszegi & Philipp Strack, 2023. "Misinterpreting Yourself," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2378, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    31. Yingkai Li & Harry Pei, 2020. "Misspecified Beliefs about Time Lags," Papers 2012.07238, arXiv.org.
    32. Kubler, Felix & Scheidegger, Simon, 2023. "Uniformly self-justified equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    33. Spiegler, Ran, 2022. "On the behavioral consequences of reverse causality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    34. Geoffroy de Clippel & Kareen Rozen, 2020. "Relaxed Optimization: e-Rationalizability and the FOC-Departure Index in Consumer Theory," Working Papers 2020-07, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    35. Ron Berman & Yuval Heller, 2020. "Naive analytics equilibrium," Papers 2010.15810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    36. Phuong Ho, 2023. "Nonlinear pricing, biased consumers, and regulatory policy," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 149-164, March.
    37. Fudenberg, Drew & Romanyuk, Gleb & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Active learning with a misspecified prior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    38. Christopher P. Chambers & Peng Liu & Ruodu Wang, 2025. "A duality between utility transforms and probability distortions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 99(4), pages 757-779, December.
    39. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo, 2023. "Which misspecifications persist?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
    40. Isaac Loh & Gregory Phelan, 2016. "Dimensionality and Disagreement: Asymptotic Belief Divergence in Response to Common Information," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-18, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jan 2019.
    41. Florian Mudekereza, 2025. "Aggregate Efficiency in Games," Papers 2501.13019, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    42. Liqui Lung, C. W., 2022. "Optimal Self-Screening and the Persistence of Identity-Driven Choices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2274, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    43. Marek Weretka & Daniel Quint, 2022. "Slope-takers in anonymous markets," GRAPE Working Papers 64, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    44. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Can Agents with Causal Misperceptions be Systemically Fooled?," Discussion Papers 1619, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    45. Philippe Jehiel & Konrad Mierendorff, 2022. "Auction Design with Data-Driven Misspecifications," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735747, HAL.
    46. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler & Yair Weiss, 2019. "Cheating with (Recursive) Models," Papers 1911.01251, arXiv.org.
    47. Else Gry Bro Christensen & Takeshi Murooka, 2020. "Procrastination and Learning about Self-Control," OSIPP Discussion Paper 20E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    48. Cho, In-Koo & Libgober, Jonathan, 2025. "Learning underspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    49. Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium and Related Concepts:Theory, Applications, and Beyond," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735680, HAL.
    50. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Lars Peter Hansen & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Making Decisions under Model Misspecification," Papers 2008.01071, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    51. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2023. "Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    52. Spiegler, Ran, 2018. "News and Archival Information in Games," CEPR Discussion Papers 12805, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    53. Ely, Jeffrey C., 0. "Ruth, anthony, and clarence," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
    54. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2017. "Bounded Rationality And Learning: A Framwork and A Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-007, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 May 2017.
    55. Dubois, Pierre & Pakes, Ariel, 2026. "Pharmaceutical Advertising in Dynamic Equilibrium," TSE Working Papers 26-1729, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2026.
    56. Xinyu Dai & Daniel Chen & Yian Qian, 2026. "Dynamic Decision-Making under Model Misspecification: A Stochastic Stability Approach," Papers 2602.17086, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2026.
    57. Olivier Compte, 2023. "Learned Collusion," Papers 2304.12647, arXiv.org, revised May 2025.
    58. Kevin He, 2018. "Mislearning from Censored Data: The Gambler's Fallacy and Other Correlational Mistakes in Optimal-Stopping Problems," Papers 1803.08170, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    59. Clyde, Alexander, 2025. "Proxy variables and feedback effects in decision making," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 408-429.
    60. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2018. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2128R3, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2022.
    61. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    62. Giampaolo Bonomi, 2023. "The Disagreement Dividend," Papers 2308.06607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    63. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    64. Benjamin Davies & Anirudh Sankar, 2025. "The value of conceptual knowledge," Papers 2509.09170, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    65. Hossain, Tanjim & Okui, Ryo, 2024. "Belief formation under signal correlation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 160-183.
    66. Eliaz, Kfir & Spiegler, Ran, 2018. "A Model of Competing Narratives," CEPR Discussion Papers 13319, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    67. Jonathan Gehle & Ferdinand A. von Siemens & Ferdinand von Siemens, 2024. "Social Preferences, Trust, and Communication when the Truth Hurts," CESifo Working Paper Series 11181, CESifo.
    68. Hagenbach, Jeanne & Koessler, Frédéric, 2017. "The Streisand effect: Signaling and partial sophistication," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1-8.
    69. Hestermann, Nina & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2018. "It\'s not my Fault! Self-Confidence and Experimentation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 124, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    70. Joshua Schwartzstein & Adi Sunderam, 2019. "Using Models to Persuade," NBER Working Papers 26109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    71. Duarte Gonc{c}alves, 2022. "Sequential Sampling Equilibrium," Papers 2212.07725, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    72. Fudenberg, Drew & He, Kevin, 2021. "Player-compatible learning and player-compatible equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    73. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2017. "Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 54-75, May.
    74. Ran Spiegler, 2023. "Behavioral Causal Inference," Papers 2305.18916, arXiv.org.
    75. Vives, Xavier & Yang, Liyan & Mondria, Jordi, 2017. "Costly Interpretation of Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 12360, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    76. Battigalli, P. & Francetich, A. & Lanzani, G. & Marinacci, M., 2019. "Learning and self-confirming long-run biases," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 740-785.
    77. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
    78. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2018. "Dispersed Behavior and Perceptions in Assortative Societies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2128, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    79. Simon Cordes & Max Müller, 2026. "Do Firms Know What Workers Want?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_739, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    80. Alfonso Maselli, 2025. "Misspecification Averse Preferences," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    81. Cristián Sánchez, 2025. "Equilibrium Consequences of Vouchers Under Simultaneous Extensive and Intensive Margins Competition," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 1038, Central Bank of Chile.
    82. Spiegler, Ran, 2021. "Modeling players with random “data access”," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    83. Samsun Knight, 2026. "Engagement-based curation and the evolution of taste," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 50(2), pages 399-444, June.
    84. Ba, Cuimin & Gindin, Alice, 2023. "A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 315-338.
    85. Prat, Andrea & Montiel Olea , José Luis & Ortoleva, Pietro & Pai, Mallesh, 2019. "Competing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14066, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
      • Jose Luis Montiel Olea & Pietro Ortoleva & Mallesh M Pai & Andrea Prat, 2019. "Competing Models," Papers 1907.03809, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    86. Federico Echenique & Anqi Li, 2025. "Implicit Incentive Provision with Misspecified Learning," Papers 2512.01129, arXiv.org.
    87. In-Koo Cho & Kenneth Kasa, 2017. "Model Averaging and Persistent Disagreement," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 99(3), pages 279-294.
    88. Glazer, Jacob & Rubinstein, Ariel, 2024. "Making predictions based on data: Holistic and atomistic procedures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    89. Simon Dato & Andreas Grunewald & Andreas Klümper, 2026. "Games Between Players With Dual‐Selves," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 67(1), pages 329-351, February.
    90. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2019. "Misinterpreting Others and the Fragility of Social Learning," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2160, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    91. Francesco Bilotta & Luca Braghieri & Collin Raymond & Mark Whitmeyer, 2026. "Agreement and Diversity in Interpretation," Papers 2607.05558, arXiv.org.
    92. Olivier Compte, 2023. "Belief formation and the persistence of biased beliefs," Papers 2310.08466, arXiv.org.
    93. Philippe Jehiel & Erik Mohlin, 2023. "Categorization in Games: A Bias-Variance Perspective," Working Papers halshs-04154272, HAL.
    94. Philippe Choné & Laurent Linnemer, 2022. "A Class of Behavioral Models for the Profit-Maximizing Firm," CESifo Working Paper Series 9718, CESifo.
    95. Bowen, T. Renee & Galperti, Simone & Dmitriev, Danil, 2021. "Learning from Shared News: When Abundant Information Leads to Belief Polarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 15789, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    96. Florian Mudekereza, 2026. "Motivating Innovation with a Misspecified Roadmap," Papers 2602.18879, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    97. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & David Schmeidler, 2020. "Equilibria of nonatomic anonymous games," Papers 2005.01839, arXiv.org.
    98. Stone, Daniel, 2018. "Just a big misunderstanding? Bias and Bayesian affective polarization," SocArXiv 58sru, Center for Open Science.
    99. Drew Fudenberg & Kevin He, 2017. "Learning and Type Compatibility in Signaling Games," Papers 1702.01819, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    100. Filippo Massari & Jonathan Newton, 2026. "Rational beliefs when the truth is not an option," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-26, June.
    101. Carbajal, Juan Carlos & Nachbar, John, 2025. "Robust personal equilibrium effects in misspecified causal models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    102. Pooya Molavi, 2025. "The Empirical Content of Bayesian Updating under Misspecification," Papers 2507.22775, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2026.
    103. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2022. "Combining forecasts in the presence of ambiguity over correlation structures," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    104. Yingkai Li & Argyris Oikonomou, 2024. "Dynamics and Contracts for an Agent with Misspecified Beliefs," Papers 2405.20423, arXiv.org.
    105. Gamp, Tobias & Krähmer, Daniel, 2022. "Biased Beliefs in Search Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 365, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    106. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yuhta Ishii, 2023. "Belief Convergence under Misspecified Learning: A Martingale Approach," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 781-814.
    107. Ran Spiegler, 2017. "“Data Monkeys”: A Procedural Model of Extrapolation from Partial Statistics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(4), pages 1818-1841.
    108. Geoffroy de Clippel & Kareen Rozen, 2018. "Consumer Theory with Misperceived Tastes," Working Papers 2018-10, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    109. Andrew Ellis & Heidi Christina Thysen, 2021. "Subjective Causality in Choice," Papers 2106.05957, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    110. Simon Gleyze & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Expectation Formation, Local Sampling and Belief Traps: A new Perspective on Education Choices," Working Papers halshs-04154324, HAL.
    111. Bohren, Aislinn & Hauser, Daniel, 2017. "Learning with Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness," CEPR Discussion Papers 12036, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Articles

  1. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa, 2024. "Contingent Thinking and the Sure-Thing Principle: Revisiting Classic Anomalies in the Laboratory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 2806-2831.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2023. "Mental Models and Transfer Learning," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 659-664, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Cars Hommes & Isabelle Salle & Julien Pinter, 2026. "Fiscal Beliefs & Narratives," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 26-031/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Felipe A. Araujo & Christopher F. Chabris & Michelle N. Meyer, 2025. "The Effect of On-the-Job Experience on Base-Rate Neglect: Evidence from Medical Professionals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(10), pages 8807-8822, October.

  4. Ignacio Esponda & Ryan Oprea & Sevgi Yuksel, 2023. "Seeing What is Representative," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2607-2657.

    Cited by:

    1. Kai Barron & Ruth Ditlmann & Stefan Gehrig & Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch, 2025. "Explicit and Implicit Belief-Based Gender Discrimination: A Hiring Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(2), pages 1600-1622, February.
    2. Robin Musolff & Florian Zimmermann, 2025. "Model Uncertainty," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_697, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Clochard, Gwen-Jirō & Hollard, Guillaume & Sene, Omar, 2026. "Bringing contact interventions to the lab: Effects of brief bilateral discussions on interethnic trust in Senegal," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Gagnon, Nickolas & Nosenzo, Daniele, 2026. "Discrimination Preferences," EconStor Preprints 340785, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Katherine B. Coffman & Scott Kostyshak & Perihan O. Saygin, 2025. "Choosing and Using Information in Evaluation Decisions," Papers 2507.13798, arXiv.org.
    6. Burn, Hester & Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta, 2024. "Stereotyping and ethnicity gaps in teacher assigned grades," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Carvajal, Daniel, 2024. "Exposure to diversity, social proximity and ingroup bias," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 14/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    8. Vojtech Bartos, 2025. "Breaking Bias: Pathways to Reducing Discrimination," CESifo Working Paper Series 12045, CESifo.
    9. Marta Serra-Garcia, 2025. "The Attention–Information Tradeoff," CESifo Working Paper Series 11885, CESifo.
    10. Pol Campos-Mercade & Friederike Mengel, 2024. "Non-Bayesian Statistical Discrimination," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(4), pages 2549-2567, April.

  5. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian, 2021. "Equilibrium in misspecified Markov decision processes," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2019. "Retrospective Voting And Party Polarization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 157-186, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    2. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Guilmi, Corrado Di & Galanis, Giorgos, 2020. "Convergence and divergence in dynamic voting with inequality," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 61, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.
    4. Prummer, Anja, 2020. "Micro-targeting and polarization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

  8. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian, 2019. "The industry supply function and the long-run competitive equilibrium with heterogeneous firms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa, 2018. "Endogenous sample selection: A laboratory study," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 183-216, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Duffy, John & Hopkins, Ed & Kornienko, Tatiana, 2021. "Lone wolf or herd animal? Information choice and learning from others," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    3. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Hans-Theo Normann & Jan-Niklas Tiede & Tobias Werner, 2025. "Deceptively Framed Lotteries in Consumer Markets," Papers 2511.01597, arXiv.org.
    4. Arianna Degan & Ming Li & Huan Xie, 2023. "An experimental investigation of persuasion through selective disclosure of evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1490-1516, November.
    5. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," Working Papers halshs-03735640, HAL.
    6. Barron, Kai, 2019. "Belief Updating: Does the \'Good-News, Bad-News\' Asymmetry Extend to Purely Financial Domains?," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 170, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium and Related Concepts:Theory, Applications, and Beyond," PSE Working Papers halshs-03735680, HAL.
    8. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    9. Jehiel, Philippe & Singh, Juni, 2021. "Multi-state choices with aggregate feedback on unfamiliar alternatives," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-24.
    10. Ko, Sungmin & Kim, Seonghyeon & Cho, Jungwoo & Maeng, Kyuho, 2026. "Measuring public willingness to pay for Urban Air Mobility: A national contingent valuation study in South Korea," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    11. Backhaus, Teresa & Schäper, Clara & Schrenker, Annekatrin, 2023. "Causal misperceptions of the part-time pay gap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    12. Roel, Marcus & Chen, Zhuoqiong, 2026. "Strategy vs. direct-response method: evidence from a large online experiment on simple social dilemmas," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 153-185.
    13. Niederle, Muriel & Vespa, Emanuel, 2023. "Cognitive Limitations: Failures of Contingent Thinking," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5q14p1np, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    14. López-Pérez, Raúl & Pintér, Ágnes & Sánchez-Mangas, Rocío, 2022. "Some conditions (not) affecting selection neglect: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 140-157.
    15. Cordes, Simon & Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Werner, Tobias, 2024. "What drives demand for loot boxes? An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    16. Gergely Hajdu & Balázs Krusper, 2023. "Choice-induced Sticky Learning," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp349, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Philippos Louis, 2025. "Failures of Contingent Thinking and the Winner’s Curse," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 03-2025, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    18. Windsteiger, Lisa, 2022. "The redistributive consequences of segregation and misperceptions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Bolte, Lukas & Fan, Tony Q., 2024. "Motivated mislearning: The case of correlation neglect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 647-663.
    20. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2021. "An experiment on deception, reputation and trust," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 821-853, September.
    21. Guillaume HOLLARD & Fabien PEREZ, 2020. "Self-Selection Filters Irrationality in One-shot Games," Working Papers 2020-10, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

  10. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2017. "Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 54-75, May.

    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Jehiel, 2018. "Investment Strategy and Selection Bias: An Equilibrium Perspective on Overoptimism," Post-Print halshs-01884380, HAL.
    2. Marius D. May, 2024. "Electing in the dark? Voting behavior in light of polarization," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(11), pages 1-29, November.
    3. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Clyde, Alexander, 2025. "Proxy variables and feedback effects in decision making," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 408-429.
    5. Matthias Lang & Simeon Schudy, 2020. "(Dis)honesty and the Value of Transparency for Campaign Promises," CESifo Working Paper Series 8366, CESifo.
    6. Shuyao Ke & Liangjun Su & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2022. "Unified Factor Model Estimation and Inference under Short and Long Memory," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2351, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Kfir Eliaz & Simone Galperti & Ran Spiegler, 2022. "False Narratives and Political Mobilization," Papers 2206.12621, arXiv.org.
    8. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2023. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," PSE Working Papers halshs-04154345, HAL.
    9. Chen, Wanyi, 2021. "Dynamic survival bias in optimal stopping problems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

  11. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2016. "Berk–Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents With Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1093-1130, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  12. ,, 2013. "Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.

    Cited by:

    1. Fudenberg, Drew & Kamada, Yuichiro, 2018. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium with heterogeneous beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 364-381.
    2. Jernej Copic, 2015. "Disagreement, information and welfare," 2015 Meeting Papers 1344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Schipper, Burkhard C, 2018. "Discovery and Equilibrium in Games with Unawareness," MPRA Paper 86300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2022. "Observing actions in global games," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Clark, Daniel & Fudenberg, Drew & He, Kevin, 2022. "Observability, dominance, and induction in learning models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Ron Berman & Yuval Heller, 2020. "Naive analytics equilibrium," Papers 2010.15810, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    7. Giuseppe Attanasi & Pierpaolo Battigalli & Elena Manzoni, 2013. "Incomplete Information Models of Guilt Aversion in the Trust Game," Working Papers 480, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    8. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2011. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Uncertainty," Working Papers 428, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Gabriel Desgranges & Stéphane Gauthier, 2015. "Rationalizability and Efficiency in an Asymmetric Cournot Oligopoly," Post-Print halshs-00975002, HAL.
    10. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2019. "Observing Actions in Bayesian Games," Papers 1904.10744, arXiv.org.
    11. Dominik Grafenhofer & Wolfgang Kuhle, 2021. "Observing Actions in Global Games," Papers 2111.10554, arXiv.org.
    12. Giacomo Bonanno, 2021. "Rational play in games: A behavioral approach," Working Papers 344, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    13. Annie Liang, 2019. "Games of Incomplete Information Played By Statisticians," Papers 1910.07018, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    14. Annie Liang, 2016. "Games of Incomplete Information Played by Statisticians," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jan 2016.
    15. Norimasa Kobayashi & Yasuo Sasaki, 2024. "Rationalizable self-confirming equilibrium in static games with unawareness," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 53(3), pages 765-790, September.
    16. Xiao Luo & Xuewen Qian & Yang Sun, 2021. "The algebraic geometry of perfect and sequential equilibrium: an extension," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 71(2), pages 579-601, March.
    17. Berman, Ron & Heller, Yuval, 2025. "Naive analytics: The strategic advantage of algorithmic heuristics," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 62-78.
    18. P Battigalli & S Cerreia-Vioglio & F Maccheroni & M Marinacci, 2012. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000376, David K. Levine.
    19. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Emiliano Catonini & Giacomo Lanzani & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Ambiguity Attitudes and Self-Confirming Equilibrium in Sequential Games," Working Papers 607, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    20. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Davide Bordoli, 2025. "Sophisticated reasoning, learning, and equilibrium in repeated games with imperfect feedback," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 80(2), pages 421-464, September.
    21. Heller, Yuval & Winter, Eyal, 2011. "Biased-Belief Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 89912, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Nov 2018.
    22. , & ,, 2015. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), September.

  13. Ignacio Esponda, 2008. "Information feedback in first price auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(2), pages 491-508, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Helmuts Āzacis, 2020. "Information disclosure by a seller in sequential first-price auctions," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 49(2), pages 411-444, June.
    2. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo, 2023. "Which misspecifications persist?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
    3. Laura Doval & Alex Smolin, 2025. "Calibrated Mechanism Design," Papers 2512.17858, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2026.
    4. Carrillo, Juan & Brocas, Isabelle & Castro, Manuel, 2010. "The nature of information and its effect on bidding behavior: laboratory evidence in a common value auction," CEPR Discussion Papers 7848, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Zacharias Maniadis, 2008. "Essays in Aggregate Information, The Media and Special Interests," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002258, David K. Levine.
    6. Koessler, Frederic & Pahlke, Marieke, 2025. "Feedback design in games with ambiguity-averse players," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Frédéric Koessler & Marieke Pahlke, 2023. "Feedback Design in Strategic-Form Games with Ambiguity Averse Players," PSE Working Papers halshs-04039083, HAL.
    8. Iftekhar, Md Sayed & Tisdell, John G., 2015. "Bidding and performance in multiple unit combinatorial fishery quota auctions: Role of information feedbacks," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 233-243.
    9. Yanjun Han & Tsachy Weissman & Zhengyuan Zhou, 2025. "Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 73(1), pages 209-238, January.
    10. Christoph March, 2011. "Adaptive social learning," PSE Working Papers halshs-00572528, HAL.
    11. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo & Strack, Philipp, 2023. "Pathwise concentration bounds for Bayesian beliefs," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(4), November.
    12. Zacharias Maniadis, 2014. "Selective revelation of public information and self-confirming equilibrium," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 43(4), pages 991-1008, November.
    13. Philippe Jehiel, 2007. "Manipulative Auction Design," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001547, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Ariel Pakes, 2008. "Theory and Empirical Work on Imperfectly Competitive Markets," NBER Working Papers 14117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Philippe Jehiel & Laurent Lamy, 2015. "On absolute auctions and secret reserve prices," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 241-270, June.
    16. Gretschko, Vitali & Mass, Helene, 2024. "Worst-case equilibria in first-price auctions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 19(1), January.

  14. Ignacio Esponda, 2008. "Behavioral Equilibrium in Economies with Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1269-1291, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2026. "Learning and Equilibrium under Model Misspecification," Papers 2601.09891, arXiv.org.
    2. Philippe Jehiel & Larry Samuelson, 2022. "The Analogical Foundations of Cooperation," Working Papers halshs-03754101, HAL.
    3. Alejandro Martínez-Marquina & Muriel Niederle & Emanuel Vespa, 2017. "Probabilistic States versus Multiple Certainties: The Obstacle of Uncertainty in Contingent Reasoning," NBER Working Papers 24030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David Ettinger & Philippe Jehiel, 2010. "A Theory of Deception," Post-Print hal-00701286, HAL.
    5. Razin, Ronny & Levy, Gilat & Young, Alwyn, 2022. "Misspecified politics and the recurrence of populism," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Vasiliki Skreta & Laura Veldkamp, 2008. "Ratings Shopping and Asset Complexity: A Theory of Ratings Inflation," Working Papers 08-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Kaufmann, Marc & Machado, Joël & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2021. "Why Do Migrants Stay Unexpectedly? Misperceptions and Implications for Integration," IZA Discussion Papers 14155, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Drew Fudenberg, 2006. "Advancing Beyond Advances in Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 694-711, September.
    9. Miettinen, Topi, 2009. "The partially cursed and the analogy-based expectation equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 162-164, November.
    10. Luca Macedoni, 2022. "Asymmetric information, quality, and regulations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1180-1198, September.
    11. Antler, Yair & Bachi, Benjamin, 2019. "Searching Forever After," CEPR Discussion Papers 14103, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    12. Alistair J. Wilson & Emanuel Vespa, 2012. "Communication With Multiple Senders and Multiple Dimensions: An Experiment," Working Paper 384, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Mar 2012.
    13. Yutaka Kayaba & Jun Maekawa & Hitoshi Matsushima, 2023. "The Effect of Framing in Sealed-Bid Auctions: Theory and Experiments," CARF F-Series CARF-F-567, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    14. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    15. ,, 2013. "Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
    16. Spiegler, Ran, 2017. "Behavioral Economics and the Atheoretical Style," CEPR Discussion Papers 11786, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    17. Yair Antler ad Ran Spiegler, 2024. "Competitive Markets with Imperfectly Discerning Consumers," Papers 2409.14885, arXiv.org.
    18. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "A Sparsity-Based Model of Bounded Rationality," NBER Working Papers 16911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kai Barron & Steffen Huck & Philippe Jehiel, 2022. "Everyday econometricians: Selection neglect and overoptimism when learning from others," Working Papers halshs-03735640, HAL.
    20. Evan Piermont, 2021. "Hypothetical Expected Utility," Papers 2106.15979, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    21. Lindsay, Luke, 2019. "Adaptive loss aversion and market experience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 43-61.
    22. S. Nageeb Ali, 2009. "Learning Self-Control," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000384, David K. Levine.
    23. Clemens Buchen & Alberto Palermo, 2022. "Adverse Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Evolutionary Learning," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 343-362, June.
    24. Avi Goldfarb & Mo Xiao, 2008. "Who thinks about the competition? Managerial ability and strategic entry in US local telephone markets," Working Papers 08-21, NET Institute, revised Oct 2008.
    25. Athey, Susan, 2002. "Monotone Comparative Statics Under Uncertainty," Scholarly Articles 3372263, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    26. Jehiel, Philippe, 2015. "Investment strategy and selection bias: An equilibrium perspective on overconfidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10868, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    27. Alberto Palermo & Clemens Buchen, 2021. "Adverse Selection, Heterogeneous Beliefs, and Evolutionary Learning," IAAEU Discussion Papers 202103, Institute of Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU).
    28. Giacomo Lanzani, 2025. "Dynamic Concern for Misspecification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(4), pages 1333-1370, July.
    29. Alistair Wilson & Emanuel Vespa, 2012. "Communication With Multiple Senders and Multiple Dimensions: An Experiment," Working Paper 461, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2012.
    30. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2017. "Framing Game Theory," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1072, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
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