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Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty

Author Info

  • P Battigalli
  • S Cerreia-Vioglio
  • F Maccheroni
  • M Marinacci

Abstract

We analyze a notion of self-confirming equilibrium with non-neutral ambiguity attitudes that generalizes the traditional concept. We show that the set of equilibria expands as ambiguity aversion increases. The intuition is quite simple: by playing the same strategy in a stationary environment, an agent learns the implied distribution of payoffs, but alternative strategies yield payoffs with unknown distributions; increased aversion to ambiguity makes such strategies less appealing. In sum, a kind of "status quo bias" emerges; in the long run, the uncertainty related to tested strategies disappears, but the uncertainty implied by the untested ones does not. (JEL C72, C73, D81, D83)

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Paper provided by David K. Levine in its series Levine's Working Paper Archive with number 786969000000000376.

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Date of creation: 15 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000000376
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.dklevine.com/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
  • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
  • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
  • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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  1. Ariel Rubinstein & Asher Wolinsky, 1991. "Rationalizable Conjectural Equilibrium: Between Nash and Rationalizability," Discussion Papers 933, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107674165, November.
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  6. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 2006. "Superstition and Rational Learning," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2114, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Azrieli, Yaron, 2009. "Categorizing others in a large game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-362, November.
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  9. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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  13. Martin J Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 2009. "A Course in Game Theory," Levine's Bibliography 814577000000000225, UCLA Department of Economics.
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  15. Ehud Lehrer, 2012. "Partially Specified Probabilities: Decisions and Games," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 70-100, February.
  16. Esponda, Ignacio, 2013. "Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
  17. Acemoglu,Daron & Arellano,Manuel & Dekel,Eddie (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107627314, November.
  18. Lehrer, Ehud & Teper, Roee, 2011. "Justifiable preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 762-774, March.
  19. Frank Riedel & Linda Sass, 2011. "The Strategic Use of Ambiguity," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 452, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
  20. Eichberger, Jurgen & Kelsey, David, 2000. "Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 183-215, February.
  21. Chaim Fershtman & Ariel Pakes, 2012. "Dynamic Games with Asymmetric Information: A Framework for Empirical Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1611-1661.
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Cited by:

  1. Frank Riedel & Linda Sass, 2014. "Ellsberg games," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 469-509, April.
  2. Berger, Loic & Bosetti, Valentina, 2016. "Ellsberg Re-revisited: An Experiment Disentangling Model Uncertainty and Risk Aversion," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 236239, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  3. Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2016. "Absolute and Relative Ambiguity Aversion: A Preferential Approach," Working Papers 578, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2012. "Analysis of Information Feedback and Selfconfirming Equilibrium," Working Papers 459, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Berk-Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents with Misspecified Models," Papers 1411.1152, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
  6. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Thomas Sargent, 2016. "A Framework for the Analysis of Self-Confi rming Policies," Working Papers 573, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Kamada, Yuichiro & Fudenberg, Drew, 2015. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), September.
  8. Sass, Linda, 2014. "Kuhn's Theorem for Extensive Form Ellsberg Games," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 478, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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