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Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty

Author

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  • P Battigalli
  • S Cerreia-Vioglio
  • F Maccheroni
  • M Marinacci

Abstract

We analyze a notion of self-confirming equilibrium with non-neutral ambiguity attitudes that generalizes the traditional concept. We show that the set of equilibria expands as ambiguity aversion increases. The intuition is quite simple: by playing the same strategy in a stationary environment, an agent learns the implied distribution of payoffs, but alternative strategies yield payoffs with unknown distributions; increased aversion to ambiguity makes such strategies less appealing. In sum, a kind of "status quo bias" emerges; in the long run, the uncertainty related to tested strategies disappears, but the uncertainty implied by the untested ones does not. (JEL C72, C73, D81, D83)
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Suggested Citation

  • P Battigalli & S Cerreia-Vioglio & F Maccheroni & M Marinacci, 2012. "Selfconfirming Equilibrium and Model Uncertainty," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000376, David K. Levine.
  • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:786969000000000376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riedel, Frank & Sass, Linda, 2016. "The strategic use of ambiguity," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 452, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
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    4. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2013. "Ambiguity and robust statistics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 974-1049.
      • Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Ambiguity and Robust Statistics," Working Papers 382, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. Ehud Lehrer, 2012. "Partially Specified Probabilities: Decisions and Games," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 70-100, February.
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    8. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Luigi Montrucchio, 2011. "Classical Subjective Expected Utility," Working Papers 400, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    14. Martin J. Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 1994. "A Course in Game Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650401, January.
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    16. Eichberger, Jurgen & Kelsey, David, 2000. "Non-Additive Beliefs and Strategic Equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 183-215, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sass, Linda, 2014. "Kuhn's Theorem for Extensive Form Ellsberg Games," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 478, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    2. repec:eee:indorg:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:241-266 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Frank Riedel & Linda Sass, 2014. "Ellsberg games," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 469-509, April.
    4. Stergios Athanasoglou & Valentina Bosetti & Laurent Drouet, 2017. "A Simple Framework for Climate-Change Policy under Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2017.13, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Loic Berger & Valentina Bosetti, 2016. "Ellsberg re-revisited: An experiment disentangling model uncertainty and risk aversion," Working Papers 576, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. Battigalli, P. & Cerreia-Vioglio, S. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M., 2016. "Analysis of information feedback and selfconfirming equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 40-51.
    7. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Berk-Nash Equilibrium: A Framework for Modeling Agents with Misspecified Models," Papers 1411.1152, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    8. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Alejandro Francetich & Giacomo Lanzani & Massimo Marinacci, 2016. "Learning and Self-confi rming Long-Run Biases," Working Papers 588, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Simon Quemin, 2016. "Intertemporal abatement decisions under ambiguity aversion in a cap and trade," Working Papers 1604, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Loic Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics," Working Papers 616, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    12. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Thomas Sargent, 2016. "A Framework for the Analysis of Self-Confi rming Policies," Working Papers 573, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Kamada, Yuichiro & Fudenberg, Drew, 2015. "Rationalizable partition-confirmed equilibrium," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(3), September.
    14. Loïc Berger & Johannes Emmerling, 2017. "Welfare as Simple(x) Equity Equivalents," Working Papers 2017.14, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. Simone Cerreia Vioglio & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2016. "Absolute and Relative Ambiguity Aversion: A Preferential Approach," Working Papers 578, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. repec:eee:ejores:v:264:y:2018:i:1:p:280-293 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Emiliano Catonini & Giacomo Lanzani & Massimo Marinacci, 2017. "Ambiguity Attitudes and Self-Confi rming Equilibrium in Sequential Games," Working Papers 607, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    18. Stauber, Ronald, 2017. "Irrationality and ambiguity in extensive games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 409-432.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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