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Rationalizable conjectural equilibrium: A framework for robust predictions

  • Esponda, Ignacio

    ()

    (Stern School of Business, New York University)

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    I introduce a new framework to study environments with both structural and strategic uncertainty, different from Harsanyi's (1967-8) `Bayesian games', that allows a researcher to test the robustness of Nash predictions while maintaining certain desirable restrictions on players' beliefs. The solution concept applied to this environment is rationalizable conjectural equilibrium (RCE), which integrates both learning from feedback (in the spirit of self-confirming equilibrium) and from introspection (in the spirit of rationalizability). I provide an epistemic definition of RCE and obtain a characterization in terms of a procedure that generalizes iterated deletion of strategies that are not a best response.

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    File URL: http://econtheory.org/ojs/index.php/te/article/viewFile/20130467/8783/273
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    Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Theoretical Economics.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:the:publsh:928
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econtheory.org

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    1. Muhamet Yildiz & Jonathan Weinsten, 2004. "Impact of higher-order uncertainty," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 157, Econometric Society.
    2. Battigalli Pierpaolo & Di Tillio Alfredo & Grillo Edoardo & Penta Antonio, 2011. "Interactive Epistemology and Solution Concepts for Games with Asymmetric Information," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-40, March.
    3. Neeman, Zvika, 2004. "The relevance of private information in mechanism design," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 55-77, July.
    4. Carlsson, H. & van Damme, E.E.C., 1993. "Global games and equilibrium selection," Other publications TiSEM 49a54f00-dcec-4fc1-9488-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Jeffrey C. Ely & Marcin Peski, . "Hierarchies Of Belief And Interim Rationalizability," Discussion Papers 1388, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    6. Mario Gilli, 1999. "On Non-Nash Equilibria," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2084, David K. Levine.
    7. Adam Brandenburger & Amanda Friedenberg & H. Jerome Keisler, 2008. "Admissibility in Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 307-352, 03.
    8. Ignacio Esponda, 2008. "Behavioral Equilibrium in Economies with Adverse Selection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1269-91, September.
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