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Berk-Nash Rationalizability

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Esponda
  • Demian Pouzo

Abstract

We introduce Berk--Nash rationalizability, a set-valued counterpart to Berk--Nash equilibrium for environments in which agents may hold misspecified models. A set of behaviors is self-justified if every behavior in the set is optimal under beliefs fitted to data generated within the set. Berk--Nash rationalizability is the largest self-justified set and reduces to standard rationalizability under correct specification and identification. We provide a learning foundation allowing Bayesian agents to learn from different, selectively sampled histories: almost surely, the limit set of play is self-justified. Conversely, under identification, any compact self-justified set can arise as the limit set with arbitrarily high probability. We illustrate how the concept yields informative predictions that are robust across learning procedures, without committing to a specific dynamic or assuming convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2025. "Berk-Nash Rationalizability," Papers 2505.20708, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.20708
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fudenberg, Drew & Romanyuk, Gleb & Strack, Philipp, 2017. "Active learning with a misspecified prior," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), September.
    2. Jehiel, Philippe, 2005. "Analogy-based expectation equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 81-104, August.
    3. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
    4. Kfir Eliaz & Ran Spiegler, 2020. "A Model of Competing Narratives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3786-3816, December.
    5. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Bilotta & Luca Braghieri & Collin Raymond & Mark Whitmeyer, 2026. "Agreement and Diversity in Interpretation," Papers 2607.05558, arXiv.org.

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