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Retrospective Voting And Party Polarization

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  • Ignacio Esponda
  • Demian Pouzo

Abstract

We provide a new and favorable perspective on voter naiveté and party polarization. We contrast sophisticated (Nash) versus retrospective voting in a model where two parties commit to policies. Retrospective voters do not understand the mapping between states and outcomes induced by a policy; instead, they simply vote for the party that delivers the highest observed performance, as determined in equilibrium. We show that parties have an incentive to polarize under retrospective, compared to Nash, voting. Moreover, this polarization often results in higher welfare due to a better match between policies and fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo, 2019. "Retrospective Voting And Party Polarization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(1), pages 157-186, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:60:y:2019:i:1:p:157-186
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12348
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    Cited by:

    1. Esponda, Ignacio & Pouzo, Demian & Yamamoto, Yuichi, 2021. "Asymptotic behavior of Bayesian learners with misspecified models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Ignacio Esponda & Demian Pouzo & Yuichi Yamamoto, 2019. "Asymptotic Behavior of Bayesian Learners with Misspecified Models," Papers 1904.08551, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    3. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos, 2021. "Convergence and divergence in dynamic voting with inequality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 137-158.
    4. Prummer, Anja, 2020. "Micro-targeting and polarization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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