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Higher-Order Beliefs and (Mis)learning from Prices

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  • Kevin He

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jonathan Libgober

    (University of Southern California)

Abstract

We study misperceptions of private-signal correlation in an incomplete-information Cournot duopoly game. Exaggerating the correlation between players’ demand signals is beneficial when agents hold flexible beliefs about price elasticity, but harmful when their beliefs are dogmatically correct. For agents with flexible beliefs who learn elasticity by observing prices, correlation misperceptions indirectly distort behavior through elasticity misinference. If agents know the true elasticity, this learning channel is eliminated. Correlation misperceptions have opposite direct and indirect effects on behavior, so the presence of elasticity inference can reverse an error’s viability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin He & Jonathan Libgober, 2025. "Higher-Order Beliefs and (Mis)learning from Prices," PIER Working Paper Archive 25-018, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:25-018
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    File URL: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/system/files/working-papers/25-018%20PIER%20Paper%20Submission.pdf
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