IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jgames/v11y2020i4p44-d426724.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overconfidence and Timing of Entry

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Santos-Pinto

    (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Internef 535, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
    We are thankful to Fernando Branco for helpful comments and suggestions.)

  • Tiago Pires

    (Economics Department, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-2100, USA
    We are thankful to Fernando Branco for helpful comments and suggestions.)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of overconfidence on the timing of entry in markets, profits, and welfare using an extension of the quantity commitment game. Players have private information about costs, one player is overconfident, and the other one rational. We find that for slight levels of overconfidence and intermediate cost asymmetries, there is a unique cost-dependent equilibrium where the overconfident player has a higher ex-ante probability of being the Stackelberg leader. Overconfidence lowers the profit of the rational player but can increase that of the overconfident player. Consumer rents increase with overconfidence while producer rents decrease which leads to an ambiguous welfare effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Santos-Pinto & Tiago Pires, 2020. "Overconfidence and Timing of Entry," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:11:y:2020:i:4:p:44-:d:426724
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/11/4/44/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4336/11/4/44/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luís Santos-Pinto, 2008. "Positive Self-image and Incentives in Organisations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(531), pages 1315-1332, August.
    2. Florian Englmaier & Markus Reisinger, 2014. "Biased Managers as Strategic Commitment," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 350-356, July.
    3. Mailath George J., 1993. "Endogenous Sequencing of Firm Decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 169-182, February.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. de Meza, David & Southey, Clive, 1996. "The Borrower's Curse: Optimism, Finance and Entrepreneurship," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 375-386, March.
    6. van Damme, Eric & Hurkens, Sjaak, 2004. "Endogenous price leadership," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 404-420, May.
    7. van Damme, Eric & Hurkens, Sjaak, 1999. "Endogenous Stackelberg Leadership," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 105-129, July.
    8. Hans-Theo Normann, 1997. "Endogenous Stackelberg equilibria with incomplete information," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 177-187, June.
    9. Heifetz, Aviad & Shannon, Chris & Spiegel, Yossi, 2007. "What to maximize if you must," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 31-57, March.
    10. Hamilton, Jonathan H. & Slutsky, Steven M., 1990. "Endogenous timing in duopoly games: Stackelberg or cournot equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 29-46, March.
    11. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    12. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2005. "Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation," International Economic Association Series, in: Bina Agarwal & Alessandro Vercelli (ed.), Psychology, Rationality and Economic Behaviour, chapter 2, pages 19-57, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
    14. van Damme, Eric & Hurkens, Sjaak, 1999. "Endogenous Stackelberg Leadership," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 105-129, July.
    15. Luís Santos-Pinto & Joel Sobel, 2005. "A Model of Positive Self-Image in Subjective Assessments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1386-1402, December.
    16. Giovanni Maggi, 1996. "Endogenous Leadership in a New Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 27(4), pages 641-659, Winter.
    17. Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
    18. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2011. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1469-1484, August.
    19. Francesco Squintani, 2006. "Mistaken self-perception and equilibrium," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(3), pages 615-641, April.
    20. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    21. Simon Gervais & Itay Goldstein, 2007. "The Positive Effects of Biased Self-Perceptions in Firms," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 453-496.
    22. Nuno Alvim & Tiago Pires, 2017. "Optimism and timing of market entry: How beliefs and information distortion create market leadership," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(3), pages 289-311, September.
    23. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "Does Overconfidence Affect Corporate Investment? CEO Overconfidence Measures Revisited," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 649-659, November.
    24. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    25. R. G. Lipsey & Kelvin Lancaster, 1956. "The General Theory of Second Best," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 24(1), pages 11-32.
    26. Vickers, John, 1985. "Delegation and the Theory of the Firm," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 138-147, Supplemen.
    27. Fershtman, Chaim & Judd, Kenneth L, 1987. "Equilibrium Incentives in Oligopoly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 927-940, December.
    28. Albaek, Svend, 1990. "Stackelberg Leadership as a Natural Solution under Cost Uncertainty," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 335-347, March.
    29. Normann, Hans-Theo, 2002. "Endogenous Timing with Incomplete Information and with Observable Delay," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 282-291, May.
    30. Isabelle Brocas & Juan D. Carrillo, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Boldness and Excessive Investment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 321-350, June.
    31. Aviad Heifetz & Chris Shannon & Yossi Spiegel, 2007. "The Dynamic Evolution of Preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(2), pages 251-286, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Persson, Lars & Seiler, Thomas, 2022. "Entrepreneurial optimism and creative destruction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Pikulina, E.S. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Tobler, P.N., 2014. "Overconfidence, Effort, and Investment (Revised version of CentER DP 2013-035)," Other publications TiSEM 0e3cc6fd-6847-4fe5-88da-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Chen, Si & Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah, 2019. "Looking at the bright side: The motivational value of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Clemens Buchen & Alberto Palermo, 2020. "A biased firm in a market with complementary products. A note on the welfare effects," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(4), pages 448-453, September.
    5. Nicola Meccheri, 2021. "Biased managers in vertically related markets," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 724-736, April.
    6. Otto, Clemens A., 2014. "CEO optimism and incentive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 366-404.
    7. Armstrong, Mark & Huck, Steffen, 2010. "Behavioral economics as applied to firms: a primer," MPRA Paper 20356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jean‐Baptiste Tondji, 2022. "Overconfidence and welfare in a differentiated duopoly," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 751-767, April.
    9. Eric Rasmusen & Young-Ro Yoon, 2007. "First versus Second-Mover Advantage with Information Asymmetry about the Size of New Mark," CAEPR Working Papers 2007-017, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    10. Fei Shi, 2008. "Endogenous Timing with Demand Uncertainty," TWI Research Paper Series 30, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    11. Kobayashi, Hajime & Suehiro, Hideo, 2008. "Leadership by Confidence in Teams," MPRA Paper 10717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique, 2011. "Overconfidence and moral hazard," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 429-451.
    13. Elizabeth Schroeder & Carol Horton Tremblay & Victor J. Tremblay, 2021. "Confidence bias and advertising in imperfectly competitive markets," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 885-897, June.
    14. Eric Rasmusen & Young-Ro Yoon, 2008. "First versus Second-Mover Advantage with Information Asymmetry about the Size of New Markets," Working Papers 2008-15, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    15. Kangsik Choi & DongJoon Lee, 2022. "Network externalities and endogenous timing in managerial firms," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1462-1475, July.
    16. Prokudina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe, 2015. "Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?," Discussion Paper 2015-055, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Hajime Kobayashi & Hideo Suehiro, 2008. "Leadership by Confidence in Teams," Discussion Papers 2008-35, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration.
    18. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
    19. Daniele Nosenzo & Martin Sefton, 2011. "Endogenous Move Structure and Voluntary Provision of Public Goods: Theory and Experiment," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(5), pages 721-754, October.
    20. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jgames:v:11:y:2020:i:4:p:44-:d:426724. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.