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What Is CEO Overconfidence? Evidence from Executive Assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Steven N. Kaplan
  • Morten Sorensen
  • Anastasia A. Zakolyukina

Abstract

We use detailed assessments of CEO personalities to explore the option-based measure of CEO overconfidence, Longholder, introduced by Malmendier and Tate (2005a) and widely used in the behavioral corporate finance and economics literatures. Longholder is significantly related to several specific characteristics and is negatively related to general ability. These relations also hold for overconfidence measures derived from CEOs’ earnings guidance. Investment-cash flow sensitivities are larger for both Longholder and less able CEOs. Overall, Longholder CEOs have many of the same characteristics traditionally associated with overconfident individuals, including lower general ability, supporting the interpretation of this measure as reflecting overconfidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven N. Kaplan & Morten Sorensen & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2020. "What Is CEO Overconfidence? Evidence from Executive Assessments," NBER Working Papers 27853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27853
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    Cited by:

    1. Stevo Pavićević & Thomas Keil, 2021. "The role of procedural rationality in debiasing acquisition decisions of overconfident CEOs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(9), pages 1696-1715, September.
    2. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.
    3. Bradley E. Hendricks & Mark Lang & Kenneth Merkley, 2022. "Through the eyes of the founder: CEO characteristics and firms’ regulatory filings," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3-4), pages 383-422, March.
    4. Miklós Koren & Álmos Telegdy, 2024. "Expatriate Managers: Effects on Firm Performance," CEU Working Papers 2024_1, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    5. Bernhard Kassner, 2023. "Taming Overconfident CEOs Through Stricter Financial Regulation," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 375, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    6. Zhu, Changchun & Li, Na & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Impact of CEO overconfidence on enterprise digital transformation: Moderating effect based on digital finance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Cook, Douglas O. & Chowdhury, Jaideep & Zhang, Weiwei, 2023. "Director optimism and CEO equity compensation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 143-162.
    8. Andreas Haufler & Bernhard Kassner, 2024. "Matching for Risk-Taking: Overconfident Bankers and Government-Protected Banks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11336, CESifo.
    9. Kim, Hyeong Joon & Mun, Seongjae, 2025. "Restraining bad news hoarding from managerial overconfidence: Evidence from the Sarbanes-Oxley Act," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Adrian Bruhin & Fidel Petros & Luís Santos-Pinto, 2024. "The role of self-confidence in teamwork: experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 27(3), pages 687-712, July.
    11. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Ni, Qiuxin, 2023. "Board diversity: Moderating effects of CEO overconfidence on firm financing decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    12. Melo, Grace & Palma, Marco & Chomali, Laura & Ribera, Luis, 2025. "Are experts overoptimistic about the success of market labeling information?," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360812, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Kim, J.H. John & Anderson, Ronald, 2024. "CEO narcissism and the agency cost of debt," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Thi Tuyet Dao, Nhung & Guney, Yilmaz & Hudson, Robert, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from primary and secondary data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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