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Citations for "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?"

by Kilian, Lutz

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  1. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  2. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Nandha, Mohan & Turkistani, Abdullah Q. & Alaitani, Muhammed Y., 2011. "Oil price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-55.
  3. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear Expectations in Speculative Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62045, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
  6. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2011. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," MPRA Paper 30140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
  8. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2011. "The Role of Time-Varying Price Elasticities in Accounting for Volatility Changes in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers 11-28, Bank of Canada.
  9. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets: Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Discussion Papers 311, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  10. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
  12. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  13. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
  14. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  15. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
  16. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
  17. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
  18. Sunoong Hwang & Yongsung Chang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," 2011 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Claudio Morana, 2012. "The Oil price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A global perspective," Working Papers 2012.28, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  20. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  21. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working Papers 0917, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  22. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
  24. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman, 2008. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/515, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  25. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  27. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2008. "Oil Price Shocks, Macroeconomic Stability and Welfare in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 0802, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  28. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. Reitz, Stefan & Slopek, Ulf Dieter, 2008. "Nonlinear oil price dynamics: a tale of heterogeneous speculators?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,10, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  30. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  31. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
  32. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
  33. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
  34. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2012. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 17998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Arouri Mohamed el hédi & Fouquau Julien, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in gcc countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 795-804.
  37. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 945-959.
  38. Zhuo Li & Hui Zhao, 2011. "Not all demand oil shocks are alike: disentangling demand oil shocks in the crude oil market," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 28-44, February.
  39. Naccache, Théo, 2011. "Oil price cycles and wavelets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 338-352, March.
  40. Juan Carlos Castañeda & Carlos Eduardo Castillo, 2005. "Supply Shocks in the Transition Towards an Inflation Targeting Reform: an Empirical Evidence for Guatemala," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 354, Central Bank of Chile.
  41. Marko Melolinna, 2011. "Using Financial Markets Information to Identify Oil Supply Shocks in a Restricted VAR," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 33-54, Spring.
  42. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2008. "The impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3095-3108, November.
  43. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
  44. Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "On The Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Markets: Evidence from Panel Analysis in GCC Countries," Working Papers 538, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2010.
  46. Engemann, Kristie & Owyang, Michael T. & Wall, Howard J., 2011. "Where is an oil shock?," MPRA Paper 31383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Andrea Nobili & Stefano Neri, 2006. "The transmission of monetary policy shocks from the US to the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 606, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  48. Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  49. Lorde, Troy & Jackman, Mahalia & Thomas, Chrystol, 2009. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price fluctuations on a small open oil-producing country: The case of Trinidad and Tobago," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2708-2716, July.
  50. Marc D. Weidenmier & Joseph H. Davis & Roger Aliaga-Diaz, 2008. "Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program," NBER Working Papers 14362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
  52. Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.
  53. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & Derya Filiz Unsal, 2010. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations (Petrol Fiyatlarindaki Dalgalanmalarin Kaynaklari)," Working Papers 1005, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  54. Chittedi, Krishnareddy, 2011. "Does oil price matter for Indian stock markets?," MPRA Paper 35334, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2011.
  55. Chen, Natalie & Graham, Liam & Oswald, Andrew J, 2007. "Oil Prices, Profits, and Recessions : An Inquiry Using Terrorism as an Instrumental Variable," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 809, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  56. Reitz, Stefan & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil price forecasters finally right? Regressive expectations toward more fundamental values of the oil price," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  57. Chai, Jian & Guo, Ju-E. & Meng, Lei & Wang, Shou-Yang, 2011. "Exploring the core factors and its dynamic effects on oil price: An application on path analysis and BVAR-TVP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 8022-8036.
  58. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2011. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in the U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," RCER Working Papers 564, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  59. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Soares, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy: using wavelets to analyze old issues," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 645-655, May.
  60. Pablo Pincheira B & Álvaro García M, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Inflation The Case Of Chile and a Sample of Industrial Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(1), pages 5-36, April.
  61. Arouri Mohamed El Hedi & Jawadi Fredj, 2010. "Short and long-term links between oil prices and stock markets in Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 817-828.
  62. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 15002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  65. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
  66. Melolinna, Marko, 2008. "Using financial markets information to identify oil supply shocks in a restricted VAR," Research Discussion Papers 9/2008, Bank of Finland.
  67. Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(2), pages 21-27, 07.
  68. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  69. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
  70. Joao Tovar Jalles, 2009. "Do Oil Prices Matter? The Case of a Small Open Economy," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(1), pages 65-87, May.
  71. Naohisa Hirakata & Nao Sudo, 2009. "Accounting for Oil Price Variation and Weakening Impact of the Oil Crisis," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  72. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2008. "An international perspective on oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 20, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  73. Hedi Arouri, Mohamed El & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Oil prices, stock markets and portfolio investment: Evidence from sector analysis in Europe over the last decade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4528-4539, August.
  74. Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  75. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Teresa Maria Rodrigues & Maria Joana Soares, 2012. "Oil Shocks and the Euro as an Optimum Currency Area," NIPE Working Papers 07/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  76. Claudio Morana, 2012. "Oil Price Dynamics, Macro-Finance Interactions and the Role of Financial Speculation," Working Papers 2012.07, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  77. Martin Bodenstein & Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri, 2007. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," International Finance Discussion Papers 897, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  78. Robalo, Pedro Brito & Salvado, João Cotter, 2008. "Oil price shocks and the Portuguese economy since the 1970s," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp529, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  79. Fantazzini, Dean & Hook, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," MPRA Paper 33825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Carolyn Chisadza & Janneke Dlamini & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2013. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on the South African Economy," Working Papers 201311, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  81. Ratti, Ronald & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2012. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China’s influence over 1996-2011," Working Papers 15062, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 20 Sep 2012.
  82. Kensuke Miyazawa, 2009. "Estimation of the elasticity of substitution between oil and capital," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 655-660.
  83. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
  85. Alessio Anzuini & Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2007. "Oil supply news in a VAR: Information from financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 632, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  86. Christian M. Oberpriller, 2007. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment: The Role of Oil Suppliers Valuation Effects and Interest Rate Changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  87. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  88. Deren Unalmis & Ibrahim Unalmis & D. Filiz Unsal, 2009. "On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 09/285, International Monetary Fund.
  89. Alessia Campolmi, 2008. "Oil price shocks: Demand vs Supply in a two-country model," MNB Working Papers 2008/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  90. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
  91. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.