IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v123y2020ics0022199620300271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflation targeting as a shock absorber

Author

Listed:
  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Grosse-Steffen, Christoph
  • Rieth, Malte

Abstract

We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, and reduces inflation variability compared to alternative monetary regimes. This performance is mostly due to a different response of monetary policy and fiscal policy under inflation targeting. Finally, we show that only hard, but not soft, targeting reaps the rewards: deeds, not words, matter for successful monetary stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel & Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Inflation targeting as a shock absorber," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:123:y:2020:i:c:s0022199620300271
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199620300271
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103308?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "Optimal Inflation Targets, "Conservative" Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 98-114, March.
    2. Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2019. "Natural Disasters and Macroeconomic Performance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1069-1098, April.
    3. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    9. Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
    10. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    11. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Mr. Christian H Ebeke & Mr. Armand P Fouejieu, 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2015/228, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 2010. "The Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 17, pages 935-999, Elsevier.
    14. Hallegatte, Stéphane & Dumas, Patrice, 2009. "Can natural disasters have positive consequences? Investigating the role of embodied technical change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 777-786, January.
    15. Jean‐Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba, 2018. "Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2755-2784, November.
    16. Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1522-1542, December.
    17. Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2014. "Natural disasters and macroeconomic performance: The role of residential investment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 194, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    19. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Nikolaj Malchow-Møller & Jens Nordvig, 2015. "Inflation targeting and macroeconomic performance since the Great Recession," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 598-613.
    20. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
    21. Zheng Liu & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2011. "Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(2), pages 251-301, July.
    22. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    23. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2010. "Inflation Targeting," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 22, pages 1237-1302, Elsevier.
    24. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    25. INOUE Hiroyasu & TODO Yasuyuki, 2017. "Propagation of Negative Shocks through Firm Networks: Evidence from simulation on comprehensive supply chain data," Discussion papers 17044, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    26. Ricardo D. Brito, 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1679-1688, December.
    27. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    28. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    29. Olivier Coibion, 2012. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, April.
    30. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    31. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    32. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    33. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    34. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    35. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    36. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    37. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    38. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    39. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    40. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    41. Hiroyasu Inoue & Yasuyuki Todo, 2019. "Propagation of negative shocks across nation-wide firm networks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    42. Ms. Inci Ötker & Charles Freedman, 2009. "Country Experiences with the Introduction and Implementation of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 2009/161, International Monetary Fund.
    43. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    44. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    45. Mrs. Nina Budina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2012/187, International Monetary Fund.
    46. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    47. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Not Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 129-136, March.
    48. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    49. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    50. Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2010/045, International Monetary Fund.
    51. Ramcharan, Rodney, 2007. "Does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks? Evidence from windstorms and earthquakes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 31-47, September.
    52. Ball, Laurence, 2010. "The Performance of Alternative Monetary Regimes," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1303-1343, Elsevier.
    53. Brito, Ricardo D., 2010. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Matter: Another Look at OECD Economies’ Output Sacrifice Ratios," Insper Working Papers wpe_212, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    54. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    55. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 2004. "The Inflation-Targeting Debate," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern04-1, March.
    56. Shu Lin, 2010. "On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 195-199, February.
    57. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    58. Charlotte Benson & Edward J. Clay, 2004. "Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15025, December.
    59. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    60. Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Natural Disasters in a DSGE Model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 973-990, April.
    61. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    62. Claudio Borio, 2014. "Monetary policy and financial stability: what role in prevention and recovery?," BIS Working Papers 440, Bank for International Settlements.
    63. Mr. Scott Roger & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2005. "On Target? the International Experience with Achieving Inflation Targets," IMF Working Papers 2005/163, International Monetary Fund.
    64. Carlos Eduardo S. Gon«Alves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    65. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, August.
    66. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    67. Junhan Kim, 2011. "Inflation Targeting as Constrained Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1505-1522, October.
    68. Mr. Scott Roger, 2009. "Inflation Targeting at 20 - Achievements and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2009/236, International Monetary Fund.
    69. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    2. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    4. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Pourroy, Marc, 2019. "Does inflation targeting always matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    5. Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2019. "Does Inflation Targeting Always Matter for the ERPT? A robust approach," Working Papers hal-02082568, HAL.
    6. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Anna Samarina & Mirre Terpstra & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Inflation targeting and inflation performance: a comparative analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 41-56, January.
    8. Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba & Patrick Villieu, 2021. "Inflation targeting adoption and institutional quality: Evidence from developing countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2107-2127, July.
    9. Levieuge, Grégory & Lucotte, Yannick & Pradines-Jobet, Florian, 2021. "The cost of banking crises: Does the policy framework matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Hippolyte W. Balima & Eric G. Kilama & Rene Tapsoba, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2017/213, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ardakani, Omid & Kishor, Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2015. "On the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting: Evidence from a Semiparametric Approach," MPRA Paper 75091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ardakani, Omid M. & Kishor, N. Kundan & Song, Suyong, 2018. "Re-evaluating the effectiveness of inflation targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 76-97.
    13. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
    14. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE & Jean Louis COMBES & Kabinet KABA & Alexandru MINEA, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Developing countries’ Performance: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2941, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    15. Bao-We-Wal BAMBE, 2022. "Inflation Targeting and Private Domestic Investment in Developing Countries," Working Papers REM 2022/0237, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    17. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Yeh, Chih-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua, 2019. "Inflation targeting and output-inflation tradeoffs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 102-120.
    18. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2539-2585, November.
    19. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    20. Jean‐Louis Combes & Xavier Debrun & Alexandru Minea & René Tapsoba, 2018. "Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Rules and the Policy Mix: Cross‐effects and Interactions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(615), pages 2755-2784, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Central banks; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Natural disasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:123:y:2020:i:c:s0022199620300271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.